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Rural economic woes may boost Obama
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She accused the Republican Party of price gouging at the pump, mismanaging the Iraq war and failing to address health care. She said she would have voted for Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton because she thought a woman could clean up Washington, but, as for Obama, "I just don't like him." She plans to vote for McCain.
Another farmer, Robert Thompson, 58, a Democrat and retired state worker from Millheim who raises cattle and hogs, said he still hasn't gotten over Obama's comments at a private San Francisco fundraiser that small-town voters in Pennsylvania are bitter and "cling to guns or religion." He said he's considering not voting for president because he doesn't like McCain, either.
If many rural voters follow the route Thompson is considering, it could hurt McCain in critical swing states, said Terry Madonna, a pollster and professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.
"McCain will have problems getting a high turnout among those voters unless he finds some way to identify with them, some way to make them think that, A, he's not connected to Bush, and B, his economic plan is superior to Obama's," Madonna said.
Median household income dropping
He also needs to turn the conversation away from the economy, Madonna said, but "it's tougher to do that when times are bad."
Paul Lindsay, a McCain spokesman, said long-standing relationships Republicans have established in rural areas will pay off for McCain.
"John McCain continues to hear the concerns of rural families. ... That's why he has made every effort to engage these voters on his plans to create jobs and provide relief for working families," Lindsay said.
Says Dan Leistikow, an Obama spokesman: "We're getting a great response in rural communities that have been ignored by Washington and left behind in the Bush economy."
Mifflin is one of nearly 150 rural counties where the median household income has dropped by more than 10 percent since 1999, more than three times the national decline, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
That could make a difference in traditionally Republican rural areas come November. In Ohio in 2004, for example, John Kerry might have won the state and the presidency had he won just 45 percent of the rural vote. As it was, Bush carried Ohio's rural voters by an almost 2-to-1 margin, according to exit polls.
Rural voters accounted for more than 10 percent of the total vote in all but three of 12 closely contested battleground states in 2004, and more than 20 percent in four of them — Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin — according to exit polls. In all but two of the states, Bush won the small-town vote overwhelmingly.
The AP analysis of median household income was based on 2005 estimates, the latest available from the Census Bureau. In some of the rural counties heavily dependent on farming, income may well have rebounded since then, as rising soybean and corn prices have helped offset feed and fertilizer costs.
Not all rural counties hurting
And not all rural counties are hurting. The median household income improved during the Bush administration in many rural counties near metropolitan areas.
But for counties like Mifflin, the recent economic decline is just a continuation of a trend that's lasted decades. Some of the county's economic woes date to 1972 when rains from Hurricane Agnes flooded parts of the area, including a profitable rayon fiber plant that was a major employer.
Tara Davidson, 36, a single mother and hair dresser from nearby Unionville, said she worries about what opportunities will be available for her 15-year-old son, who is already working to help out with their expenses. But she's not sure she'll even vote in November.
"I'm considering it, but I don't want any of them," Davidson said. "What if they get in there and make it worse?"
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