Race questions cast doubt on presidential polls

updated 2:45 p.m. ET Aug. 12, 2008

The year was 1984, and the state was Iowa. A white man who had just voted walked out of his precinct caucus and saw the Rev. Jesse Jackson standing outside.

"I did all I could," the man told Jackson ruefully, "but I just couldn't bring myself to pull the lever and vote for you."

L. Douglas Wilder laughs as he relates the story Jackson once told him, the sting eased by time and Wilder's vantage point as the nation's first elected black governor.

Now it's a quarter of a century later, and the man everyone's talking about is Barack Obama, the Illinois senator holding a slim lead in many polls. But can the polls be trusted? A central question about race and politics hasn't changed since 1984: Do white people lie — to pollsters or even to themselves — about their willingness to vote for black candidates?

In the not-so-distant past, the consensus was a clear yes. Today, however, there is widespread disagreement about whether Obama is subject to the predicament known as the Wilder or Bradley Effect — whether in the privacy of the voting booth, white people will actually pull the lever for the first black man to come within shouting distance of the presidency.

Given that surveys can have trouble uncovering the truth about many things besides race, plus the massive technological, demographic and cultural changes in play, this question is contributing to an almost unprecedented air of uncertainty surrounding this year's polls.

In 1989, Wilder polled as many as 15 points ahead in the days before the election for Virginia governor, but squeaked into office by a minuscule 6,700 votes. David Dinkins had a similar experience that year, when he became New York City's first black mayor. And the phenomenon was first noted in 1982, when Tom Bradley endured a stunning defeat in the California governor's race after exit polls indicated he was the winner.

The reason for these disparities? A significant amount of white people did not admit that race played a role in their voting decision, pollsters and academics say. Another factor: When the person asking the questions was black, respondents were more likely to say they favored the black candidate.

Stand and be counted Topic: Race in America In the year of Barack Obama, there is much discussion of the state of race relations in America. But many other race-related topics are barely being discussed. Read NBC Senior Vice President Mark Whitaker's essay on the subject and then tell us what's going on in your town or community.

In the recent Democratic primary, exit polls in 28 states overstated Obama's actual share of the final vote.

Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, doesn't think people are lying to pollsters today about their support for Obama, "because I don't think there's a lot of stigma in saying you're voting for John McCain." Kohut said it's not like polls are asking, "Do you want to vote for the white guy or the black guy?"

But he did see potential for error based on the people who decline to participate in polls, whom he describes as largely lower-income whites more likely than the population at large to have racially intolerant views.

"The real frailty of our polls is that we get very high refusal rates, and we survive because the people who we interview are like the people who we don't interview on most things," Kohut said. "(Racism) is not one of them."

So are current polls accurate? "I don't know," Kohut said, "and to be honest with you, this is something every pollster I know is concerned about."

Wilder, now the mayor of Richmond, Va., said his internal polls during the governor's race showed it to be much closer than most people thought. "It was clear that people were having the first opportunity to vote for an African-American, and there was uncertainty," he said. "You know, 'Is he going to be fair, is he just going to look out for his own people. And who are his own people?' I think we've come a great distance from that. I've seen the progress."

So is Wilder ready to bury the Wilder Effect?

"No, I won't say that," he said with a laugh. "I won't go that far."

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