Trade, outsourcing and tariffs top '08 concerns

How they have voted
McCain has consistently voted in support of free trade agreements. 

He voted for CAFTA and NAFTA and for increased trade with Oman, Singapore, Chile, China, Vietnam, and the Andean nations. He voted to expand trade with third world countries and, in 1997, to renew the “fast track” system that gave then-President Clinton the power to quickly negotiate free trade deals like NAFTA. 

In 2002, he voted to make trade agreements exempt from amendments by Congress. 

McCain voted against a 1995 bill to impose trade sanctions on Japan. He also voted to kill a bill that would have imposed sanctions on China if the country failed to revalue its currency.

During his time in the Senate, Obama’s voting record on trade has been much shorter.

Obama also voted for the free trade agreement with Oman, but voted against CAFTA. He supported imposing sanctions on China for currency manipulation.

Unanswered Questions
Obama has said he would work to renegotiate NAFTA, but has not said what he would be prepared to offer to Canada and Mexico in return for tougher labor and environmental standards. 

Canada’s prime minister, in a statement that the Canadian press considered to be a hint about U.S. access to Canadian oil, warned that reopening NAFTA would be a “mistake.”

And while Main Street wants answers on the issue of job losses, Wall Street wants to know what the candidates would do about the country’s enormous and rapidly growing trade deficit.

“It is a long-term problem, it won’t be solved overnight,” said Charles Pearson, professor emeritus of international finance at Johns Hopkins University. “But one would like to at least know what their views are.”

Evolution and shifts in position
Neither of the candidates has had significant shifts in position, though Obama did recently suggest to Fortune Magazine that his rhetoric during the primary season may have been “overheated.” 

His tone on NAFTA has softened slightly since he won the Democratic primaries, but not enough to suggest a major shift.

Surprises for the new president
This week’s collapse of global trade talks in the international forum called the Doha Round is a foreshadowing just one sticky choice the next president will have to make. 

In an interview with Reuters, European Union trade chief Peter Mandelson blamed the United States for Doha’s failure because American negotiators demanded increased market access for agricultural exports in return for cutting farm subsidies. 

Agricultural interests in the United States have long been a stumbling block when it comes to free trade, since most foreign governments oppose the way that the Congress protects American farmers and agribusinesses.

In 2005, 58 senators signed a letter to President Bush, asking him not to offer to cut subsidies during the Doha talks. Obama signed the letter, while McCain, whose dislike of farm subsidies is well known, did not.

In future talks, a President McCain or President Obama is sure to encounter similar requests for compromise on farm interests.

And while McCain may find his support of free trade a liability during the election season at home, his opposition to farm subsidies would put him in a much better position than Obama to negotiate with the rest of the world.

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