‘Dark Knight’ won’t sink ‘Titanic’ record

That leaves the unadjusted domestic box office chart and “Titanic's” $600 million. After 17 days, “The Dark Knight” is already near $400 million. Can it do it?

One way to formulate a new film’s final domestic gross is to find a similar film whose percentage drop-offs (daily, weekly) are closely related, and then extrapolate.

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” satisfies this criteria for “Dark Knight.” That film, also rated PG-13, also set the opening weekend box office record in July, on its way to grossing more than $1 billion worldwide. For its second weekend, its box office dropped 54 percent, compared with “Dark Knight's” 52.5 percent. For its entire second week, “Pirates” dropped 53.7 percent, while “Dark Knight” dropped 52.9 percent. All in all, pretty close, percentage-wise.

So what happens when you plug “Dark Knight's” original weekly total ($238 million) into “Pirates'" weekly percentage drop-offs?

You get a final domestic gross of $515 million. Second all-time, but still $85 million short of “Titanic.”

It’s not about money; it’s about sending a message
This is merely a formula, of course. Other factors will come into play. “The Dark Knight” is better than “Pirates 2,” so it should have longer legs. Heath Ledger’s performance as the Joker, singled out for high praise and Oscar buzz, may draw into theaters moviegoers who might not otherwise check out a superhero pic. And if Ledger, or the film itself, is nominated for an Oscar next January, that could boost its box office as well. Assuming it’s still in theaters.

Even so, it would take a lot to make up $85 million.

Regardless, “The Dark Knight” is important for another reason. In recent years our highest-grossing films haven’t been very good (“Spider-Man 3,” “Pirates 2”), but “The Dark Knight” is both hugely successful and critically acclaimed. That’s a nice change. And in this age of disconnection, it’s given us something we need now and then: a shared experience worth talking about.

In its desperation, msnbc.com turned to a man they didn’t fully understand. He can be reached at: eriklundegaard.com.

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