China vs. U.S., Phelps are top stories to watch

Mike Celizic

BEIJING - We don’t know what’s going to happen once the Games begin Friday, but we can be sure of some of the storylines that are going to run through the Olympics. We can also predict which pre-Games story lines will die the instant there’s real sports news to report.

Here are the topics you’ll be reading about once the torch hits the cauldron and the Olympic Flame lights up the smog here in Beijing.

The Weather
Everybody talks about and China is trying its darnedest to do something about it, too. The problem is Beijing’s infamous smog, which can be so dense you can barely see to the end of a city block.

The government has closed coal-fired power plants, closed scores of factories and cut traffic in half by allowing cars on the streets on an odd-even license tag system. Still, the smog hunkers over the city, which is situated in a kind of geological bowl that collects bad air.

At night, government meteorologists have been seeding the clouds, hoping to wring rain out of them to wash the atmosphere clean. It rained last Friday, and the skies were clear on Saturday. On Sunday, it was hazy. By Monday, the air was so thick you could cut it with a knife.

The weather forecasters are saying it will definitely rain on Friday, the day of the Opening Ceremonies. Since the forecasters here are every bit as good as those in the United States, that means it’s a coin toss as to whether that will come to pass. But whatever the weather – and the smog situation – everybody’s going to keep talking about it.

Drugs
This is one that no Olympics has been able to get away from since testing first began more than 30 years ago. Athletes will get caught cheating, and when they do, it will make headlines. My guess is that none of the guilty parties will be Chinese. The reason is that the government has been conducting random tests of its own athletes for months now, determined not to suffer the humiliation that befell host nation Greece in 2004 when it’s two national hero sprinters, Katerina Thanou and Konstantinos Kenteris, were busted for staging a motorcycle accident to dodge a mandatory drug test.

Getty Images Share your photos from past Olympic Games — from Turin and beyond — you’ve attended.

China vs. America
Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the dismantling of the drug-fueled East German sports machine, the United States has ruled the medal standings. China wants to dethrone the Americans in the nation’s athletic coming-out party. They’ve got the home-field advantage, which always spurs the home team to greater heights. Whether they’ve got the depth to topple Team U.S.A. is another matter. China will probably finish second, but the competition between the two athletic superpowers will be a major theme of the Games.

Michael Phelps
The Games will mint plenty of individual heroes, but none will be the story that Michael Phelps is and will continue to be. No matter what anyone else does, Phelps’ pursuit of matching or breaking Mark Spitz’s record seven gold medals in swimming will be covered morning, noon and night by the media. If he actually does it, it will go down with Jesse Owens’ 1936 performance as one of the greatest individual performances in Olympic history.

Women’s gymnastics
The tumbling munchkins are like the weather. Everybody always talks about them and nobody doesn’t watch them. This will be a battle between a very strong U.S. team and the host Chinese, and it could be spectacular. Look for the winners on a Wheaties box near you.

Click for related content   Discuss: Sound off on Olympics message board

Judging controversy
The International Olympic Committee has been trying for decades to get better judging in all events, but there isn’t an Olympiad that goes by that doesn’t have a controversy. In 2004, it was gymnast Paul Hamm and his Korean rival. In many years, it has involved boxing. I don’t know where this year’s tempest is coming from, but I know it’s coming.

MORE FROM BEIJING OLYMPICS NEWS

Beijing Olympics News Section Front

China’s gold medalists to receive $51,000 each China ends 'truly exceptional games' Castro defends athlete who kicked judge in face Beijing prepares for Olympic venues’ future China deports 10 activists after ceremony After victory, China's sports system at crossroads IOC president says Olympics opened up China New China? Bird's Nest replaces Mao on yuan Celizic: Phelps, Bolt will go down as Beijing's main men IOC: No proof China cheated in gymnastics Beijing Olympics News Section Front   Add Beijing Olympics News headlines to your news reader: