President must decide who'll bear tax burden

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON - This election cycle, msnbc.com is presenting a weekly series, Briefing Book: Issues '08, assessing issues and controversies that the next president must confront.

This week, we look at your federal tax burden.

In 2004, ten million more people filed tax returns than voted in the presidential election.

But whether you're a voter or not, the outcome of U.S. elections affects the tax burden of all Americans.

Why it’s a problem
Every dollar you pay in federal taxes is one less dollar for your groceries or your children’s college fund.

The federal government takes about one-fifth of all national income each year.

But your aging mother on Medicare would be in tough spot were it not for federal tax revenue — so would the safety inspector who checks that plane you’re about to board for a cross-country flight.

And the tax system reflects our current ideas of fairness.

Are highly paid Americans carrying enough of the nation’s tax burden — or carrying too much? Is the single mother who earns $40,000 paying too much in taxes, or too little?

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If you’re in the middle of the income distribution — the middle 20 percent of all households — you pay 14 percent of your total income to the federal government in the form of taxes, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

You and other middle-income people are carrying about nine percent of the total federal tax burden.

But if you are in the top 20 percent of all households, measured by income, you and other high earners are carrying nearly 70 percent of the entire federal tax burden.

If you’re in the top fifth of all households, your effective federal tax rate is 25 percent. That means that of every $100 in gross income, you get only $75 after the federal tax bite.

Where the candidates stand
What’s going to happen to your tax burden under a new president?

The short answer is this:

• If Obama wins, upper-income people will almost certainly end up shouldering more of the burden.
• If McCain wins, upper-income people might get a tax cut, but only if McCain can persuade what’s likely to be a Democratic-controlled Congress to agree with him.

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Obama proposes to raise the Social Security tax for upper-income people.

Currently the 12.4 percent tax is imposed on the first $102,000 of earned income, with the worker and the employer each paying 6.2 percent.

Obama wants to increase the Social Security tax on people with earned income above $250,000.

Obama’s economic advisor Jason Furman described this as “asking those making over $250,000 to pay their fair share.” But Furman said Obama isn’t ready to spell out the details, such as the tax rate that he’d impose on those making above $250,000.

McCain has not yet said whether he would support or oppose an increase in Social Security taxes.

When it comes to income taxes, Obama proposes to raise rates for upper-income people by going back to the 36 percent and 39.6 percent rates imposed on that demographic during the Clinton era.

He's also pledging changes to the estate tax system. Estate taxes are imposed on the assets left by wealthy people to their heirs, and currently, the maximum tax rate is 45 percent, with the first $2 million of an estate’s assets not taxed.

Obama would exempt the first $3.5 million of an estate and retain the 45 percent tax rate, but McCain wants to cut the estate tax rate from 45 percent to 15 percent and make the first $5 million of an estate tax-exempt.

The Democratic candidate wants new tax breaks for low-wage workers as well as a tax exemption for people over age 65 who earn less than $50,000.

According to an analysis by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, under Obama’s blueprint, “The largest tax cuts, as a share of income, would go to those at the bottom of the income distribution, while taxpayers with the highest income would see their taxes rise significantly.”

McCain, by contrast, would like to permanently extend the 2001 income tax rate cuts.

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“McCain’s tax cuts would primarily benefit those with very high incomes, almost all of whom would receive large tax cuts that would, on average, raise their after-tax incomes by more than twice the average for all households,” said the Tax Policy Center.

Unanswered questions
In its analysis, the Tax Foundation said, “The Obama plan assumes little behavioral change from such a large tax hike on high-income workers. Is this realistic or will the higher rates encourage tax minimization strategies and reduced work effort, which will lead to lower tax revenues?”

The Tax Foundation is nonpartisan research group, but its board of directors includes Columbia University economist Glenn Hubbard who served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Bush from 2001 to 2003.

In the likely event that both houses of Congress are controlled by the Democrats, three crucial questions will emerge:

• How large will the Democrats’ majorities be? Will House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have 300 Democrats to work with, rather than her current 236?
• Will the newly elected Democrats be eager to increases taxes on the wealthy? Or will many of them be pro-investor, business-friendly Democrats who’d be wary of moving too far in redistributing wealth?
• What will be the agenda of the likely heads of the two congressional committees that write tax law, House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel of New York and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus of Montana?

Baucus, in particular, could be the person with the most power to change the president’s tax proposal.

His record indicates that he is more inclined to help upper-income taxpayers than Obama is. Baucus was a chief architect of the 2001 tax law that cut income tax rates and phased out the tax on inherited wealth.

His spokeswoman said Baucus wants to see the 2001 rate cuts and other tax breaks such as the child tax credit extended.

A Baucus critic, left-leaning syndicated columnist and author David Sirota, said “I don’t expect Baucus to play a very progressive role” in the tax debate next year. “Baucus could play a destructive role. He is potentially as big an obstacle to real tax reform as any rank-and-file Republican.”

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