Suspicion, terrain foes for U.S. in Afghan surge

Pakistan the weak link
Analysts also stress that even with better security in Afghanistan, the insurgency cannot be quelled unless Pakistan cracks down on militant havens on its side of the ill-mapped border, which snakes for 1,500 miles through rugged peaks and across deserts.

The U.S. faces a conundrum in fighting an insurgency in Pakistan, where it has no ground forces and public sentiment is strong against ever allowing troops in. It can do little more in direct military action than launch periodic missile strikes on suspected al-Qaida hideouts.

"My impression is that there is very little that foreign troops can do about the situation on the frontier," said Barnett Rubin, an expert on Afghanistan at New York University. "The problem is: What happens on the Pakistan side of the border, and who is responsible for it?"

William Wood, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, said Pakistan's government is not doing all it can.

"I think that they are doing substantially more than their worst critics say," Wood said. "That does not mean that Pakistan is doing all it can be doing."

Pakistan denies Afghan accusations that its main intelligence agency is backing the Taliban. An army spokesman, Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, said that without the tens of thousands of Pakistani soldiers along the border, militant infiltration into Afghanistan "could have been 20 times more."

But he also acknowledged Pakistan's army is no longer on the offensive against militants and security has deteriorated in some areas on the frontier. He said the generals are waiting for the government to decide if the current strategy of seeking peace deals in militant-infested areas can work to quell extremist activities.

A retired Pakistani general, Talat Masood, said the best strategy is to coax Pakistan's new civilian government — a fragile coalition of the leading secular political parties — into making a strong effort to mobilize public opinion against Islamic militancy and extremism.

The U.S., he added, should fund economic development of the impoverished border region, share more intelligence with Pakistan and work to end mistrust between the U.S. and Pakistan militaries.

Washington has already given more than $10 billion in mostly military aid to Pakistan since it joined the war against terrorism. Proposed legislation being pushed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee would triple humanitarian spending in Pakistan — $7.5 billion over the next five years — but threaten to cut military aid unless Islamabad did more to fight extremists.

Masood warned that intensified U.S. military action inside Pakistan trying to stop movement over the border will not work.

"Punitive action will only make things worse," he said. "If they start striking inside Pakistan it will only inflame passions, fuel deeper resentment of America and destabilize the government."

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