'Meet the Press' transcript for July 13, 2008

MR. BROKAW: We're back, and I'm joined now by our political roundtable of three friends.

Welcome, Mike Murphy, first of all, to the NBC News team as an analyst this year.

MR. MIKE MURPHY: Thank you.

MR. BROKAW: We all came to know you, of course, in 2000 when you were an instrumental part of John McCain's roaring success in New Hampshire and the Straight Talk Express.

Harold Ford, familiar figure to us now, former congressman from Tennessee, a Democrat. And my longtime friend Andrea Mitchell.

Great to have you all here. Let me just share with you, if I can, a, a Newsweek poll that's out this week. General election, Senator Obama, 44 percent; Senator McCain, 41 percent.

Both sides are saying their candidates are flip-flopping at this time, and Senator Obama is particularly getting a lot of attention on that count, Senator--Congressman Ford, on campaign finance, public financing. He said he was for the D.C. gun ban, then he endorsed the Supreme Court decision on it. He also voted to, to give immunity to the telecoms that were participating in the wireless wiretaps and the warrantless wiretaps, and he wants to expand aid to faith-based organizations. Is he moving smartly to the center, and is that a good idea?

FMR. REP. HAROLD FORD Jr.: First off, I support him on all of those, on all of those fronts. Primaries, as we all know, are fought on about 30 to 40 yards of a football field, each side. General elections are played on the entire field. What Senator Obama is doing, I think in a lot of ways, has been consistent with what he's done throughout his political career. I think he was labeled and probably put in a box during the primary, which often candidates are, as being probably more to the left than he really is. I think what we're seeing now is the kind of president, the kind of leader and the kind of decision maker he will be.

I fully embrace his positions on faith. I think it's important for any president, any person running for public office, high office, to lay out how their faith may influence, may impact, decision-making. More important, I think the specifics, where he called for direct and personal responsibility on behalf of many Americans, particularly young African-American men and even older African-American men, I embrace what he's done here, and I think the majority of the country across party, across region and across race will do the same.

MR. BROKAW: Did he have to move to the center, Mike?

MR. MURPHY: I think he did. But the question is how fast and artfully he does it. I mean, every candidate does this. You run to the base in the primary and then you get to the center. The question is do you race for the center so quick that people begin to think that you can slide under a closed door? Then it becomes kind of a character issue on where do you stand. So I think, I think that's up in the air right now. I think in some ways what Barack has done, he's getting closer to John McCain on the issues. It's almost an endorsement. The, the issue will be, do the American people think it's too fast too far and they start questioning what Barack what really believes in, or do they think, "Oh, it's appropriate, and frankly he's getting closer to my more centrist general election voter position on the issues." I think here in July, not figured out yet.

And I have one comment about the polls, because I've been in the campaign business a long time. I've learned, when watching national polls--I mean, this Newsweek poll, I didn't believe it when it was 15 points, I don't believe it dead even. No national poll really, in my view, anyway, really means a lot till after the conventions, the vice president and the two speeches, after Labor Day when things really get going. Because we're still in the early silly season of this.

MR. BROKAW: Well, my other take on the polls is that to do it in the large universe, especially at this time, really doesn't count. After the conventions, after the campaign begins, and then state by state, because we're really looking at the electoral map here, Andrea.

MS. ANDREA MITCHELL: Exactly. And I agree with you guys on the polls. I think that what Peter Hart and Neil Newhouse, who do the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, have been finding, and what Peter's been finding with focus groups, is that people really are not certain, that there's a lot of biography that needs to be filled in. Barack Obama will have the money to fill in that biography, but that he does have some problems. And one problem he has in moving to the center and perhaps not doing it as artfully as he might have, is the net roots, the left wing of the party, the liberal wing of the party. If it becomes a character issue, they will be much less passionate. The young voters who've been mobilized may not turn out. He has to tap into that enthusiasm. And already 22,000 people were utilizing his own Web site to complain about that vote on wiretapping. And, you know, his--using his own technology against him. So he's got to worry about that.

MR. MURPHY: Yeah.

MR. BROKAW: Well, let's hear what he has to say. We have some videotape of his response to that, in fact, in which he spoke directly to those friends, as he described them, on the left. Here's Senator Obama talking about the charges that's he's just a flip-flopper and a conventional politician.

(Videotape)

SEN. OBAMA: To this whole notion that I am, you know, shifting to the center, or that I'm flip-flopping or this or that or the other, you know, the people who say this apparently haven't been listening to me. And I have to say some, some of it are my friends on the left.

(End videotape)

MR. BROKAW: Can he afford to set those people on the left aside who have helped him in the primary?

REP. FORD: If I were giving a little advice, if I were giving a little advice to my friend this morning, it would be to lean into these arguments a little more, lean into his positions a little more. There's nothing to be ashamed, afraid or embarrassed about sharing your views and talking more forcefully about where you're going to take the country. Liberals, conservatives are all Americans. There are three things Americans want. One is for a strong, robust national security. Two is for us to figure out a better answer in Iraq. And three is for the get--for the next president to get this economy back humming again. I don't care where you sit in the political spectrum. So Senator Obama, I would agree with, with Andrea in strong ways in that he has an incredible biography that has to be told. I think Senator McCain's most recent ad where he lays out a contrast between himself and perhaps other things that were happening during the '60s is a compelling ad. Senator Obama has an equally powerful biography that he has to take advantage of as well. So if I were to give him a little advice this morning, it would be to lean in a little bit, not lean back. And in that, that statement there, Barack almost seemed to be leaning back a bit, a little defensive. No need to be on the defensive when, in fact, the country is with you and they want change. He has the message to, to do that.

MR. BROKAW: Did Senator Obama get any greater gift this past week than he one he got from Jesse Jackson when he thought he was off microphone and then on microphone? Turns out he was describing painful surgery on Obama that he'd like to perform because...

REP. FORD: To even hear you talk about it, it's painful this morning. The reality is, he probably didn't want it at all. The fact is both Jesse Jackson and Barack Obama have talked for years about personal responsibility. I think Senator Obama's statements on Father's Day were not only appropriate, they were American. And I hope he doesn't shy away from continuing to lay that argument out as well.

MR. MURPHY: It struck--excuse me--it struck me almost like a pro-wrestling maneuver it was so perfect. And I think it paid big political gold for Barack Obama. This election's going to come down to white independents and conservative blue collar Catholics in the Great Lakes metal-bending region. And look, in any of the primary results, Obama's never been able to close the deal there. McCain has to get through, you know, the economy arguments to close the deal there. That's why it's going to be a close election. And this kind of triangulation opera we saw with Jesse Jackson is very good politically for Obama. I don't think it puts the race away by any means. I think it's going to be a very close race all the way, but it's exactly what Obama needs. McCain, to win, has to be a different kind of Republican. Barack, in some ways, has to be a different kind of Democrat. And if he's stuck in the liberal land of Jesse Jackson, he can't win.

MR. BROKAW: How much was Senator McCain hurt by Phil Gramm's comments?

MR. MURPHY: You know, I, I don't think that--it was kind of gaff week. There were about 12 of them, mostly by surrogates, and I don't think that was as bad as the Barack thing was good, simply because it wasn't McCain. It was Phil Gramm talking like an economist. McCain took about three seconds to wrap him up and send him to Belarus. We're not going to hear from Phil Gramm again. He's going to be in the witness relocation program for the rest of the campaign, I would predict. And so I think it was a, a small ding on McCain, but I thought McCain did a very good job of pivoting back to the economy, so it doesn't bother me.

MR. BROKAW: Where is Senator McCain in the vice presidential selection process?

MR. MURPHY: Well, I--they--I know they have a team under the very able A.B. Culvahouse doing the vetting. I think he's got a long list. There are a lot of strong candidates out there. If I had to guess, and this is purely a guess, I, I think some of the governors are in the front position just because again, as I said, that industrial Midwestern belt from Minneapolis through Pennsylvania, that's going to be the election for the Republicans, whether they're going to win in Michigan and Ohio, Pennsylvania or not. That's why the Tom Ridges, the Mitt Romneys, the Tim Pawlentys are all very strong. And, from a political point of view, I think you're going to get first class consideration. There's also Rob Portman, Charlie Crist, there are others, they're all excellent. But I would watch that Great Lakes are. I think somebody can play there. It's going to be very important politically.

MR. BROKAW: Andrea, Senator Obama's campaign seems to be a little more active right now in the hunt for a vice presidential candidate. I mean, they're calling around, they're vetting candidates. People are pulling out of the race, other people are being very coy.

MS. MITCHELL: Yeah.

MR. BROKAW: And some people are being very available.

MS. MITCHELL: Very available indeed. I think they need to be because--rather the campaign needs to be more active because I think the calendar forces Obama to move more quickly. His convention is first, and there is some feeling in the McCain camp that they should wait until after the Democratic convention and then immediately announce their pick and try to step on whatever momentum the Democrats get out of it. I think that Jack Reed, who is going to be traveling to Iraq with Barack Obama, who is Catholic, who is a former Army Ranger, little known. I, you know, I don't think that the electoral map is as important to the Obama camp as finding the right biography, the right foreign policy experience.

Let me just weigh in on Jesse Jackson for just a second on what that meant. I think there is a divide, a generational divide, in the African-American community, and it was most quickly expressed and passionately expressed by Jesse Jackson Jr., the congressman, who said to his dad, the Reverend Jackson, you know, should keep hope alive and basically keep his mouth shut and not be doing this. And he was clearly siding, immediately siding within, you know, a half-hour with Barack Obama on this. But there is some concern in the black community that Barack Obama, in speaking out about deadbeat fathers and all of the important cultural issues, family issues, was in some way trying to make an appeal to the white community, the white voters, the Hillary Clinton voters in Appalachia, and that that is unseemly, that that is airing the family, you know, dirty linen in public.

MR. BROKAW: And Congressman Jackson has his eye on Senator Obama's senate seat...

MS. MITCHELL: Senate seat...

MR. BROKAW: ...after all.

MS. MITCHELL: ...and would need his support.

MR. BROKAW: So he has his own vested interest.

MS. MITCHELL: Exactly.

REP. FORD: But you said--but Jesse Jackson has talked about these things in the past. Personal responsibility as well.

MS. MITCHELL: Indeed he has.

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