Parties wrangle over election-year citizenship

In a research paper published earlier this year, Census Bureau demographers Sarah Crissey and Thom File explain the gap between native-born and naturalized voting rates by citing four decades of research which “suggests that citizens who are connected to and invested in society are more likely to participate in political endeavors” such as voting, while immigrants “who are potentially less connected and invested are less likely to participate.”

Perhaps nothing can get immigrants “connected and invested” more quickly than a perceived threat to their kin and fellow immigrants. Many naturalized citizens have family members who are non-citizens, either illegal immigrants or legal permanent residents.

Getting immigrants “connected and invested” could be decisive in some states in November.

Nevada, which President Bush carried by 21,500 votes in 2004, has a large Latino immigrant population. “Over 27,000 new Latino registrations have come in within one year,” said Efrain Escobedo, the Senior Director of Civic Engagement at the the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund.

Those 27,000 could reverse the 2004 Nevada outcome, if they cast ballots.

Fierce immigration battle in 2006
The 2006 Senate debate over immigration seemed to be heading toward enactment of a law to give many illegal immigrants a way to earn legal status. But the bill collapsed in the face of fierce opposition, mostly, but not entirely, from Republicans.

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The Senate’s rejection of the so-called Dream Act last October revealed that voter opposition to legalization had not abated. The Dream Act would have legalized many illegal immigrants under the age of 30.

Opposition was strong in the Midwest, the South, and the Mountain West. Montana’s two Democratic senators, Max Baucus and Jon Tester, voted against moving forward with the bill, as did Democrats Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Kent Conrad of North Dakota.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama voted for the bill. Sen. John McCain, now the presumptive GOP nominee, skipped the vote.

The debate over the Dream Act and other forms of legalization may mobilize immigrants to become citizens and then vote. At least that seems to be the hope and expectation of some Democrats.

But ironically, the white-hot opposition to the bipartisan 2007 immigration bill now has no electoral outlet, at least in balloting for president. It was McCain who led the effort to enact the 2007 bill and it will be McCain atop the Republican ticket this fall.

In his speech to the NALEO convention last weekend, McCain made a point of declaring — three times — that illegal immigrants “are God's children” and should “be treated in a humane fashion.”

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