Is Iran irrational or 'merely hostile'?

There are also uncertainties about the thinking of those in charge in Tehran: “Is Iran merely hostile, or is it irrational?” asked Jon Alterman, the director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Deterrence might have little chance of success, if Iran's leaders are not making rational calculations about their national interests.

Referring to the Iranians, Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently said, "We need to figure out a way to develop some leverage... and then sit down and talk to them." But what leverage does the United States have right now?

Would the Iranian rulers see the election of McCain as an indication that nothing had changed in the U.S.-Iran relationship and that no genuine negotiation was possible?

If Obama opened talks with Tehran, would he be able to offer big enough inducements to get Tehran to disclose its nuclear program and stop uranium enrichment?

Evolution and shifts in position
Obama has edged away from his flat commitment last summer to meet without precondition with the leaders of Iran.

When a questioner asked Obama in a 2007 debate whether he’d be willing “to meet separately, without precondition, during the first year of your administration,” with the leaders of Iran (and other nations estranged from the United States), he answered, “I would.”

Video   Iran to threaten oil supply if attacked June 28: The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard says that if his country is attacked, Iran will attempt to gain control of the Strait of Hormuz, a major choke point for oil exports leaving the Persian Gulf. NBC's Patty Culhane reports. MSNBC

But in late May, Obama said, ''I didn't say that I would meet unconditionally” with Iran’s leaders. He said he would not “just do it for the sake of doing it.”

Then he added in a speech a few weeks later to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, “I would be willing to lead tough and principled diplomacy with the appropriate Iranian leader at a time and place of my choosing if, and only if, it can advance the interests of the United States."

How they have voted
Both Obama and McCain were absent for a Sept. 26, 2007 vote on a sense of the Senate resolution that the United States should designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a foreign terrorist organization.

McCain assailed Obama for opposing the resolution, which was co-sponsored by McCain Senate allies Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, Jon Kyl of Arizona, and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

Obama later criticized his then-rival Sen. Hillary Clinton for voting for the resolution, suggesting President Bush might interpret it as a go-ahead for military strike on Iran.

“I don't want to give this president any excuse, or any opening for war," Obama said. “Because as we learned with the authorization of the Iraq War, when you give this president a blank check, you can't be surprised when he cashes it.”

In 2006, Obama voted for, and McCain voted against, an amendment to the proposed U.S.-India civilian nuclear cooperation accord.

The amendment said the U.S.-India deal could not go forward until India cut off its military-to-military ties with Iran. The amendment was defeated, but the U.S.-India accord now seems likely to collapse, partly due to internal Indian politics.

Surprises for the new president
“It is entirely possible that Iran could test a nuclear weapon during the next president's term,” said Alterman.

“Even more likely, however, is that Iran will have a president who is less outrageous and antagonistic (than Ahmadinejad), vastly complicating U.S. efforts to build an international coalition to manage Iran's possible efforts to develop a nuclear weapons capability.”

Alterman added that, “In addition, there remains the worrying possibility that U.S. and Iranian forces could clash in the Persian Gulf, either because of an outright error or a probing mission gone awry. The Gulf is a relatively small body of water, and with many warships on high alert, this danger is never far away.”

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