Is Iran irrational or 'merely hostile'?

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON - This election cycle, msnbc.com is presenting a weekly series Briefing Book: Issues '08 assessing issues and controversies that the next president must confront once he takes the oath of office.

This week, we look at the world’s fourth largest oil producer, Iran, governed by an Islamic regime which has been at odds with the United States for nearly 30 years.

Why it’s a problem
Iran has approximately one-tenth of the world’s proven oil reserves, plus more than one-tenth of the world’s reserves of natural gas.

The government of Iran may also be developing nuclear weapons.

In 2006, the United Nation Security Council passed a resolution banning trade with Iran in materials and technology which could contribute to its enrichment of uranium, the material for a possible nuclear weapon.

“Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so,” said a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released by the U.S. spy agencies late last year.

Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, the NIE said, but “Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.”

The Iranians probably would be capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons sometime after 2010, about two years from now, the NIE reported.

An attack on its nuclear sites could cause Iran to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s total daily oil demand is carried.

Video   Issues '08: Iran Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama explain their positions on Iran, whose possible nuclear aspirations and belligerent rhetoric towards Israel will be of concern to the next president. Produced by Andy Merten. msnbc.com

Adding to the tension, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said recently that Israel “is about to die and will soon be erased from the geographical scene.”

He also predicted doom for the United States, saying “the time for the fall of the satanic power of the United States has come and the countdown to the annihilation of the emperor of power and wealth has started.”

Iran and the United States have been in conflict since 1979, when America’s ally, the shah of Iran, was forced from power by an Islamic revolution.

Two weeks after the shah entered the United States for cancer treatment, a group of Iranians seized the American embassy in Tehran and took 66 Americans hostage.

More recently the United States has accused Iran of supplying explosive devices to Iraqis fighting American soldiers and Marines in Iraq.

Where the candidates stand
Republican John McCain drew fire from his critics in April of 2007 when, during a campaign stop in South Carolina, he seemed to make light of possible military strikes on Iran.

A member of the audience asked McCain when the United States would send an "airmail message" to Iran.

"That old Beach Boys song, Bomb Iran," McCain wisecracked and began singing, "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb..." to the tune of the 1960's hit, Barbara Ann.

McCain has mocked the idea that Iran might be dissuaded from seeking nuclear weapons by the offer of negotiations with the next president. “The idea that they now seek nuclear weapons because we refuse to engage in presidential-level talks is a serious misreading of history," McCain said.

NBC VIDEO McCain's 'Bomb Iran' song on YouTube April 19, 2007: It's another sign of politics in the YouTube age. MSNBC's Chris Jansing reports. MSNBC

McCain said Democrat Barack Obama’s willingness to hold direct talks, without preconditions, with the leaders of Iran “betrays the depth of Sen. Obama's inexperience and reckless judgment.”

Obama has charged that U.S. entanglement in Iraq has strengthened Tehran’s influence in the region.

McCain, he said, “has nothing to offer except the naive and irresponsible belief that tough talk from Washington will somehow cause Iran to give up its nuclear program and support for terrorism.”

Last October Obama said he would “engage in aggressive personal diplomacy” with Iran and would offer a possible pledge not to seek “regime change” if Tehran stopped its aid to insurgents in Iraq and if it cooperated on terrorism and revealing details of its nuclear program.

In a speech in June to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in Washington, Obama said, “I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

“Let there be no doubt: I will always keep the threat of military action on the table to defend our security and our ally, Israel," he pledged.

Unanswered questions
The unknown looming above all others: how close is Iran to developing nuclear weapons?

Is it already too late for the UN or the United States to deter Tehran from building a nuclear arsenal? Is a military strike now simply not feasible because Iran’s nuclear research sites are too widely scattered, too well hidden, and too deeply buried? If there were an American or an Israeli strike on Iran, what would be the consequences for the U.S. troops next door in Iraq — and for world oil prices?

Is Tehran’s nuclear program intended only to deter the United States and Israel from attacking Iran? If so, is it having the opposite effect: prompting Israel or the United States to attack?

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