Future of Colombia rebels up in air under Cano

Ample leverage
Chavez has ample leverage. He could sever ties and expel the FARC from camps on Venezuelan soil, kicking out any secretariat members living semi-permanently in Venezuela. He could offer safe haven to rebels who, without their hostages, fear obliteration by the Colombian military.

Without the clear support of Chavez, Venezuela would become less inviting as a conduit for rebel cocaine exports and weapons imports, enabling Colombia to tighten the noose on the FARC.

Already, Colombian officials say the rebels are down to about 9,000 fighters, half their strength of a decade ago, though no one knows how accurate that assessment is. Colombia also says the rebels are having trouble paying the peasants who grow the coca that finances their struggle.

The rebels released six hostages in January and February, but have ruled out releasing any more — including three U.S. military contractors and former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt — unless President Alvaro Uribe demilitarizes a New York City-sized swath of southwestern Colombia.

They didn't respond to Uribe's recent offer of "conditional liberty" and free passage to a country "such as France" for any rebel who surrenders with hostages in tow.

And they seemed as intransigent as ever in a communique published Sunday before Chavez's speech, saying their "strategic objective is taking power for the people."

Cano participated in failed peace talks in the 1990 and again in 1999-2002, where he drove a hard line against the government. Uribe said in a radio interview last week that during the 2002 talks, "Cano was as much of an obstacle as Reyes."

But what's on the rebel leader's mind today is simply unknown. He hasn't been heard from since he took over, and a pair of government-authorized mediators seeking him out has yet to talk to him.

A U.S. military analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, told The Associated Press on Monday that Cano will likely make a military move to show that the FARC still has some fight left in it.

And mediator Carlos Lozano, who edits the Communist Party weekly Voz, says it's tough to see Cano giving up the fight.

"Everyone in the FARC is a hardliner, including Cano," he told AP. "They are all inflexible."

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