'Meet the Press' transcript for June 8, 2008

MR. RUSSERT:  And we are back.  It's all about the electoral college map. And, Chuck Todd, let's take a look at it; you helped put this together. Barack Obama, dark blue states, ones that you think are safe Obama seats--states.  California, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

The light blue lean Obama:  Maine, New Jersey, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington. Put those together, he has 200 of the necessary electoral votes.  He needs 271.

Here's John McCain.  The deep red:  Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming.

The lighter red lean McCain:  Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota.  Put those together, 200 electoral votes.

Now let's look at these toss-up states.  There they are in yellow.  Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin.  That's 138 electoral votes still out there.  But, you know, if you put together those leaners that we talked about and the toss-ups, here's the map, there are 26 states in play.  The light red, the light blue and the yellow:  269 electoral votes.  This race is wide open.

MR. TODD:  It's a giant electoral map.  It's as big as ever.  And, you know, we're, we're all watching this.  There's a lot of us that sit there, and they, they remember the 2000 election, the 2004, and so we're automatically assuming, "Boy, this is going to be another one-state swing, where we'll be able to do what John Kerry loves to do.  "If you just filled up the, the Buckeye stadium, you know, with enough people to switch their vote, I'd have one Ohio in the electoral college."

But you look at the bigger landscape, and you realize there is potential--landslide potential for either one of them where they could sweep those toss-ups and win a bunch of leaners.  And that's why, if you're wondering what a McCain landslide would look like, well, it would mean he would carry Minnesota, Oregon and New Jersey.  If you're wondering what an Obama landslide would look like, it would include him carrying a lot of states like Indiana, Missouri, a couple of states in the South.  So that's why it's fun to put the whole thing out there.

The likelihood that we would have a third straight presidential election that was decided by one state, it's, it's unprecedented.  It's what we dream about, but it is unprecedented.  And the likelihood of an electoral landslide is much greater.

MR. RUSSERT:  I'm going to make you crazy.  If, if Barack Obama wins the same states that Al Gore won...

MS. O'DONNELL:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...or the same states John Kerry won--Gore won New Hampshire--New Mexico and Iowa.  Kerry didn't win those.  Kerry won New Hampshire, Gore didn't win those--win that one.  If Obama wins those three states, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, it's 269-to-269.

MR. TODD:  And then we have to figure out--and then we figure--and then we remember, North Dakota's House delegation is worth just as much as Florida's House delegation.  And that's one vote for McCain and one vote for Obama.

MR. RUSSERT:  Kelly, what is the McCann--McCain campaign thinking when they look at that electoral college map?

MS. O'DONNELL:  Well, the word that comes to mind is they say, "It's doable." They know the history they're running against with the barrier-breaking candidacy of Obama.  They know about the enthusiasm gap where he fills arenas, 20,000 people at times, even more.  But they say, if you look at the nitty-gritty of map, they see opportunity.  New Hampshire is where his candidacy was resurrected.  He spends a lot of time there.  We will be going back there, following him, even this week.  So he sees that as potential.  New Mexico, narrowly won by Republicans in the last two contests, a neighboring state for him.  He believes he's stronger among Hispanic-Americans, especially because of his immigration stance, which nearly killed him in the Republican Party.  So they think it's possible.  And even though they know there's going to be a big bump for Obama, they think, in the state contests, if you drill down, they've been studying this, he is within a few points.  And they think there is potential there.  That's why they're on the air with advertising in a number of those states, and they think they have enough money to stay on the air to try to avoid Obama being able to define McCain early, which has sometimes, you know, spelled disaster for candidates who were behind at the beginning.

MR. RUSSERT:  And, traditionally, the Democrat wins Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin, but they're always very close, all within a few points of each other.

MS. O'DONNELL:  I...

MR. GREGORY:  And, you know, I think independent voters are going to be so interesting to watch in this cycle because you've got two candidates who have demonstrated success among independent voters, notably John McCain.  And we know that in the '06 congressional election cycle, Democrats really made inroads among those independent voters, many of them disaffected Republicans who will still be disaffected going into this election.  And that's the contest here.  For Barack Obama, he's got to appeal among independents, but he's also got a lot of question marks over his head.  And for John McCain, how close is he to Bush in the mind of the independent?  That group of voters becomes important, and you've got two candidates here, really, in a, in a unique ability to go after them.

MR. ALLEN:  I look...

MR. RUSSERT:  When you look at the states that are toss-ups, everyone, it's interesting--Virginia, Chuck, Colorado--those are states that Democrats didn't think they could compete in.  Obama's campaign, Lee Cowan, they think they have a real chance, don't they?

MR. COWAN:  They do.  And not only that, I think there are some states that they think are probably perhaps too red to ever really go blue, but they're still going to campaign there in the hopes that perhaps that distracts John McCain a little bit of having to spend money in some of those states.  I mean, this is going to be a 50-state strategy.  The Obama campaign says they certainly have the money, depending on what they do to go with the 50-state strategy.  And if they do campaign harder in some of these very red states, that may mean that John McCain has to sort of make sure that he doesn't lose those.

MR. RUSSERT:  Might, that is, the 50 states become 26 pretty quickly.

MR. COWAN:  Well, probably, that's true.

MS. O'DONNELL:  Yes.

MR. RUSSERT:  But, nonetheless, it will force him to spend money where he doesn't want to spend money.

MR. COWAN:  Right.

MR. ALLEN:  I was just going to say that I think a landslide one way or the other is more likely than not because it's such a unique set of candidates that you have.  When you see John McCain and, and Barack Obama standing next to each other, there's a 25 or so huge difference in age.  It's a generational thing.  Obama's trying to change the entire electorate with all these people that he's brought in.  And, and that's why we're--it's a question of war and peace, it's a question of do we stay in Iraq or do we not stay in Iraq?  And so the issues are clear, the candidates are clear, and that's why I think it's more likely than not that there'll be a--the electorate will go one way or the other.

MR. RUSSERT:  There clearly are big differences on big issues:  the war in Iraq, Iran, health care.  Issue after issue.

MR. ALLEN:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  But the contrast that you point out, Ron, is very, very striking.  Here is Barack Obama Tuesday night in St.  Paul, where the Republicans will hold their convention in August, proclaiming victory.  Let's watch.

(Videotape)

SEN. OBAMA:  Because you decided that change must come to Washington, because you believed that this year must be different than all the rest, because, because you chose to listen not to your doubts or your fears, but to your greatest hopes and highest aspirations, tonight we mark the end of one historic journey with the beginning of another.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  That same night John McCain gave a speech, and this was the backdrop, as he stood in front of the wall rather than people, and even by loyal Republican standards did not measure in a way that they had hoped. McCain's people readily admit that's not what they do.  That's not what he does.  He then called for a series of town meetings where Obama and McCain would travel around the country in the same plane.  That's what Barry Goldwater had recommended--suggested to John Kennedy back in 1963 before Senator--President Kennedy was shot.

Andrea Mitchell, this contrast that Ron Allen talked about couldn't be more striking, but can't McCain take advantage of it by saying, "I'm not an orator. I'm a comfortable shoe that you can trust, who's been around, who will do the right thing."

MS. MITCHELL:  Yeah.  He has to make age his friend, not a deficit.  And he has to try to work the experience.  Now, experience didn't work for Hillary Clinton as the mantra.  Change was a much more compelling message, according to any measure that we've looked at in this campaign year, but he--if he can find enough ways to undermine Obama's authenticity or experience on big issues.

Now, when you look at the very first speech he gave after getting the nomination, becoming the presumptive nominee, the AIPAC speech to the pro-Israel group, there are issues there.  He, he was not exact or precise in the language that he used when he talked about Jerusalem being undivided. There, there are codes in foreign policy, and by talking about Jerusalem remaining undivided, he seemed to be walling off--no pun intended--any Palestinian hope for a negotiated solution, which in every negotiation going back years, has included some way of dividing Jerusalem among the parties.

MR. RUSSERT:  If the Republicans understand the issues--the economy, gasoline over $4 a gallon and going up, the war in Iraq, eight years of George Bush cutting against them--they do have to undermine whether or not Barack Obama has the capacity to sit in the Oval Office.  I think that's the undercurrent of this commercial by John McCain that is being run in battleground states. Let's watch a part of it.

(Videotape)

SEN. JOHN McCAIN (R-AZ):  I hate war, and I know how terrible its costs are. I'm running for president to keep the country I love safe.  I'm John McCain, and I approve this message.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Chuck Todd, clear--couldn't be more striking.  He's going out there saying, "I can protect you.  I can keep you safe."

MR. TODD:  You know, it's funny.  Now that the--next week, Obama's starting this economic tour.  Next week, John McCain is going to focus on the economy. Both of them got their nominations because of their stances in national security.  OK, Barack Obama would be nothing without Iraq.  He would not be the nominee of the Democratic Party.  John McCain would not be the nominee of the Republican Party without Iraq.  And now these two guys want to--both of them want to have this national security debate, and the country's begging them to have a debate about the economy.

And what I'm wondering is, we're seeing--and look, you see John McCain trying very much to keep this about national security, because he believes that's his trump card.  He believes that's the one time where age matters and experience matters.  But the first candidate that figures out how to talk to working class voters about the economy and feel their pain is going to be the one that eventually wins this election.  And neither one of them are good at it yet. Barack Obama's not good at this yet, and neither is John McCain.

MS. MITCHELL:  He's not--you could...

MR. TODD:  And, and, you know, the funny thing is, if we thought this was going to be an economy election 18 months ago, there'd be different nominees today.

MS. MITCHELL:  But you could argue, though, that the gas tax in Indiana was a critical moment for him, because he closed in Indiana because people rejected the, the gimmick aspect of the gas tax holiday and accepted his version of it. So he may have a way of talking about the economy.  That was one instance where he did.

MR. TODD:  He's got to give them something.

MS. MITCHELL:  But you're absolutely right.

MR. TODD:  He's got to give them something.  He still doesn't know how to give people this idea that they might get something.

MS. O'DONNELL:  But, Tim, the message of that spot was, "I hate war." The McCain campaign knows that it is considered to be the candidate who is most associated with continuing the war.  So you're hearing John McCain talk in a new way about the war in Iraq, trying to say to those voters, "It's not that I want to keep fighting.  If anyone knows about the, the pain of war, it's me. And I would be the better candidate to get us out in a responsible way." He is really trying to address that anti-war sentiment in the country.

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