GOP and Dems look to shake up electoral map

McCain advisers expect things to get worse before turning back in their direction, as voters give Obama a boost from his victory over Clinton. "There's no doubt in my mind he'll probably get a record bounce," senior adviser Charlie Black said, pointing to the historic implications of Obama's victory in the primaries.

But the McCain adviser predicted that, when voters take a deeper look at their choice, they will find McCain more appealing, in part for ideological reasons. "The country is still a slightly right-of-center country," he said, "and [voters] think McCain is slightly right of center, and they think Obama is way off to the left."

For all the talk about an expanded electoral map with a host of new battlegrounds, the candidates are looking at a fairly traditional landscape.

While Obama has talked about competing in nontraditional states, there already are some states that were on both parties' target lists in past campaigns but that may be out of reach for him.

One is West Virginia, which Republicans have won in the past two elections and which Obama lost to Clinton in the primary by a stunning 41 points. Another more significant one could be Florida, although Obama intends to compete hard there. "I wouldn't feel as good [about Florida] if Hillary were the nominee," one McCain adviser said.

An analysis of past elections shows remarkable stability. States the Democrats have won in four of the past five elections add up to 255 electoral votes; states Republicans have won in five of the past seven elections (including two Ronald Reagan electoral landslides) account for 269 electoral votes. New Hampshire, New Mexico and West Virginia, representing 14 electoral votes, fall into neither category.

McCain sees inroads in heartland
In 2004, 13 states were decided by seven or fewer percentage points: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

McCain sees potential to make his greatest inroads in the industrial heartland. Obama stumbled in Ohio and Pennsylvania and never competed in Michigan. Of those, Pennsylvania may be the most difficult for McCain.

In Michigan, the weak economy is likely to help Obama, but because the state is in the hands of Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm, McCain will try to appeal to voters who fit the "Reagan Democrat" mold.

Democrats would love to pick off Ohio after their near miss in 2004, but Obama's weakness in rural and Appalachian areas of the state makes the challenge greater. "The $10 million question is to what extent race will play an important role," said Kevin Boyle, a history professor at Ohio State University. "In a state like Ohio that's been so close every single recent election, the loss of even a point on something like race will potentially be devastating."

Elsewhere in the Midwest, Obama demonstrated significant strength in three states that were battlegrounds in the past two elections: Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. He also carried Missouri narrowly and will compete harder there than Kerry did.

Obama's rally Thursday in Northern Virginia signaled his intention to make the commonwealth and its 13 electoral votes a major battleground. Changing demographics and growing Democratic strength in the Washington suburbs make it possible for him to win Virginia, but McCain advisers think that he, too, can compete in the suburbs and has a natural base of strength in the military community.

Whether Obama can make other Southern states competitive is questionable. Florida will remain on everyone's targeting map, but McCain is a clear favorite there. Obama advisers hope to make North Carolina and possibly Georgia competitive. A large African American turnout could change the equation in both.

Of all the regions in the country, the Mountain West has emerged as the one that may be changing most politically. Fast growth, a rising Hispanic population and disaffection with Republicans have altered expectations in the region.

Both candidates expect fierce competition for the electoral votes of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. All three went for Bush four years ago.

Analyzing the state of play at the start of the general election, one top McCain adviser said: "I think some people have thought that this was going to be a drastically redrawn map. I think it's going to be . . . tweaks around the edges."

Staff writer Alec MacGillis contributed to this report.

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