Hotmail
Messenger
My MSN
MSN Directory
Clinton's couldas, shouldas, wouldas
Reading the obituary for the most anticipated candidacy in a generation
 | Sen. Hillary Clinton speaks to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee on Wednesday in Washington. |
Elise Amendola / AP |
 | Video: Decision '08 |
 Monegan responds to Troopergate Oct. 10: The fired commissioner at the center of the Troopergate scandal, Walt Monegan reacts to the findings of the Alaska Legislative Council, which says Gov. Sarah Palin abused her power. |
 |
Make predictions on news events John McCain will win the presidency |
No doubt, it would chronicle what went wrong with the most anticipated presidential candidacy in a generation.
According to this same friend, this phrase is one that Hillary Clinton loves to mutter when folks try to tell her what she did wrong.
Then she tells those folks to look forward.
Not since Ted Kennedy’s 1980 campaign had a presidential candidacy been so hotly anticipated.
Because of that, pinpointing the moments when the "wheels came off the wagon" will likely consume the media for days, weeks, even months.
There will be so many political obituaries that it will be hard to keep up.
Finger pointing
Some obituaries will be filled with finger pointing (mostly at Mark Penn and Bill Clinton); some will focus on the strategic blunders (Iowa and other caucuses); and some will ponder whether she ever really had a chance (her gender and last name).
So instead of simply looking at what Clinton did wrong, I want to delve into the "coulda, shoulda, woulda" of her campaign.
One of the more remarkable things about this campaign was Clinton’s strong finish.
|
Besides having some states and primaries to herself, why did she still look so formidable in these final weeks?
One word: women.
Clinton should not have avoided being labeled “the woman candidate” for president.
Early on, probably with the advice of Mark Penn and perhaps her husband, Clinton seemed to shy away from trying to create a women's movement. It was similar to the way Obama did his best not to be labeled “the black candidate.”
Instead, Clinton focused on her strengths, showcasing her preparation for a job the country has seen exclusively held by men.
In Obama's case, it was probably smart to force voters to view him as someone above race. It was safe to assume that if he showed an ability to win over whites, blacks would eventually embrace him.
But it was an incorrect assumption, as it turns out, that women would embrace Clinton in a similar fashion.
Perhaps women would eventually gravitate (they did late, and they would have in the general), but the campaign was slow to embrace its own historical significance.
Again thanks to Penn, the campaign framed the launch of her candidacy as Bill Clinton's third term, which in turn pushed the media to cover her more as a Clinton and less as, well, a Hillary.
The launch showcased her 35 years of experience, which immediately centered not on her term as a senator but as a first partner to Bill Clinton in Arkansas and the White House.
Given that women have consistently made up 55 to 60 percent of just about every Democratic primary electorate, it's stunning that she didn't win on the numbers alone.
The candidate who happened to be a woman
But again, Hillary Clinton didn’t run as the woman candidate, she ran as the candidate for president who happened to be a woman.
This may have actually failed to attract women early — those who weren't crazy about Bill’s antics and were therefore less inclined to support his wife.
Early on Hillary Clinton didn't do what Al Gore eventually did so well late in 2000 — and that is make the case that she was her own candidate, separate from Bill's legacy.
Gore made it clear he was his own man when he picked Joe Lieberman – the Senate’s leading morality critic of Bill Clinton – as his running mate.
It is always a challenge for a sitting vice president to try to replace his boss.
But Hillary never had this moment.
Instead the campaign believed "Clinton fatigue" was a media created myth and that Bill Clinton’s tenure in the White House was nothing but an asset for voters.
So she embraced the idea of continuing the Clinton legacy rather than focusing on the historical significance of her campaign to women.
It’s over on Super Tuesday?
On the process front, much of the "shoulda" in these campaign obits will highlight the decision to focus on Super Tuesday as an end date, forgetting that this contest was actually a fight for delegates.
The infamous story, now confirmed many times over, is that Mark Penn didn't know that California wasn't a winner-take-all state. It is the anecdote to end all anecdotes when it comes to the campaign’s excuses for ignoring the caucuses.
But aside from that actual strategic blunder, it is still shocking Clinton was able to attract so little superdelegate support.
To convince only 25 percent of superdelegates to sign on to her inevitable campaign should have been a warning sign early on of the amount of Clinton fatigue inside the party.
There were a number of Democratic activists waiting to move on, they just needed a vehicle. Obama turned out to be that vehicle.
Yet it wasn’t just the lack of superdelegate support that led to her defeat. Clinton may have lost the process fight much earlier.
- Discuss Story On Newsvine
- Rate Story:
View popularLowHigh - Instant Message
MORE FROM DECISION '08 |
 Decision '08 Section Front |
| Add Decision '08 headlines to your news reader: |