China’s quake aftershock — 5 million homeless

A whole new city?
Among longer-term solutions being floated is the idea of creating a new city in a safe location in Sichuan to house populations from riverside towns that are at risk from earthquake-related landslides and flooding or are now unbuildable.

You Nuo, a veteran journalist and pundit for the official China Daily, endorsed the idea in the June 2 edition of the English-language daily, calling on the National People’s Congress to fund a major redevelopment outside the danger zone in its next budget. “China should help Sichuan, much of whose economy is dangerously perched on quake-prone mountains, build a redevelopment zone in a geologically safer area,” he said.

Beijing is experienced at mass relocation, though it has never moved this many people this fast. When the government decided in the 1990s to go ahead with the construction of the Three Gorges Dam despite the concerns of environmental and human rights advocates — as well as sporadic citizen protests — it removed about 1.2 million people from the Yangtze River area.

“It’s one of those things where the negative aspects of the regime may sometimes turn out to be a blessing of sorts,” said Shenkar, the Ohio State University professor. “This government is used to relocating people, sometimes against their will, as (it) did with the Three Gorges.”

Another idea being discussed in official circles is the mass relocation of Sichuan residents to other parts of China. Xiang, the official in Qingchuan, said one destination being considered is the coastal port city of Ningbo, which is at least 1,000 miles from the terraced mountains of Sichuan.

“Ningbo is relatively developed,” Xiang said, adding that the idea is only preliminary.

There would be cultural challenges to such a mass resettlement. Many farmers in Sichuan, for example, do not speak the same dialect as the people in Ningbo. And while China has not formally prevented the migration of rural people to the city, many migrants working in cities don't have access to benefits enjoyed by urban residents, such as health care and free education for their children.

Quake comes amid drift to cities
On the other hand, millions of young people and bread winners from Sichuan were already working outside the province before the earthquake, supporting families back home. In more prosperous urban areas of China, they work in child care, construction, restaurants and prostitution in order to send money to their children and elderly parents.

Kari Huus / msnbc.com Wang Yuchang, a 70-year-old farmer, fled his devastated village in the mountains after the quake and now lives in a blue relief tent in a low-lying area of Qingchuan county. He says he and his extended family of 11 cannot return home because their homes and land were buried by landslides caused by the quake.

As a long term solution to rural poverty, the government supports the drift of the population from rural areas to cities. So in this sense, the earthquake comes at a pivotal moment.

“They are in the midst of this transition that other countries saw 100 years ago,” Shenkar said. “Will the government ride on that trend? …  Many of these families (in Sichuan) are neither here nor there anyway.”

Although Beijing will be in charge of the master plan for resettlement — including decisions such as where electricity and water will be provided — it is increasingly clear that the views of the victims will have to be considered. And not all are eager to move.

Yan Runqi, a former resident of the now devastated town of Yingxiu, at the quake’s epicenter, said he plans to rebuild right where his house once stood. His wife survived the earthquake too, after jumping out of a window to avoid being crushed by her collapsing house. He’s not waiting for a geological survey to determine whether it is safe. 

“We’re not afraid,” Yan said, speaking at a relief staging area near Yingxiu. “I’m almost 60, so I want to see my hometown rebuilt. That would make me happy.”

Others in the Yingxiu area said they would like to return to their mountainside farms, but had doubts that the government would reconnect electricity and water for their tiny clusters of homes.

Still others assumed they would have to go elsewhere.

Wang Yuchang, a 70-year-old evacuee, fled his village in the mountains, where he used to farm potatoes, corn and wheat. Now he lives in a blue relief tent in Guanzhuang, a village in the lowlands of Qingchuan county.

“It’s impossible to go back,” he said of the land that had been worked by his family for at least six generations. "There are no fields, and the road was destroyed.”

Asked where he thought he and his 11-member family would end up, Wang said he had no idea. “The government hasn’t made a decision,” he said. “But we want to stay together.”

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