Get ready for a party crack-up

Now, let's turn to the Democrats, a loss by potential nominee Obama would arguably be more catastrophic to the short-term future of the Democrats than a McCain loss would be for the GOP.

Why? Because the Democrats are supposed to win.

Obama-loss scenario
If Obama loses, then it's because he lost it somehow. Maybe it'll be because he's too easily painted as an elitest. Maybe it'll be because he doesn't seem up to the job. Or maybe it'll simply be a function of racism.

But whatever the reason, losing is not an option and an Obama loss would bring out the long knives inside the party walls.

But unlike the Republicans, a Democratic loss won't be blamed on ideology.

Instead, the warring factions will consist of two groups.

First is the old Clinton guard who will argue that the party got too idealistic and didn't go back to its core FDR roots.

In addition, the Clinton guard will argue that Obama alienated too many women as well as Jewish voters and that'll explain why he didn't win Florida and, perhaps, lost Pennsylvania.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

However, that won't be the end of the finger-pointing. Obama partisans will whip around and point the finger right back at the Clintons and claim she stayed in the race too long, race-baited and created an environment that was too toxic for an Obama victory.

Too divisive to win?
This bitterness between the Clinton and Obama factions will be very personal and very bitter, opening up the possibility for a third faction to develop, one that will argue that Clinton and Obama were both too divisive to win.

This group could, ironically, be led by folks like Al Gore and John Edwards, two other failed presidential candidates in their own right.

Bottom line on the Democrats: an Obama loss would create a nasty, personal fight inside the party that the media will obsess about because the characters are so television friendly.

Media catnip
The Clintons, and now Obama, have become catnip for the media and a divisive “he said, they said” fight about how the Democrats lost the unloseable election will actually mask likely gains for the party on the House and Senate level.

One thing both parties should realize about 2008: neither an Obama loss nor a McCain victory should mask the underlying dynamics of what's going on right now. And that's two things: the Republican Party will still have a brand problem in 2009, and the Democrats will still have the upper-hand at creating a bigger tent majority.

Obama and McCain are now symbols for their respective parties.

The result of this presidential election could amplify the good for the Democrats if Obama wins and amplify the negative for the Republicans should McCain lose.

Of course, the upside for Republicans in the McCain-wins scenario is that they’ll have time to fix the GOP’s brand outside of the media glare.

That's because the media will be salivating over the epic Clinton v. Obama blame game battle well into 2009.

Picking the president: The candidates Click to visit that candidate's MSNBC page or click the XML symbol for an RSS feed. John McCain                Barack Obama

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