Get ready for a party crack-up

Chuck Todd Political Director • Profile

WASHINGTON - Nothing salves a party's wounds like winning and nothing picks a party's scab faster than losing.

With the likely nominations of Barack Obama by the Democrats and John McCain by the Republicans, one of these two parties is headed for a 2009 crack-up that could prove as messy as any party civil war in recent history.

Of the two parties, the frontrunner for this crack-up is the GOP. Well, this is the case at least for now, since they are the underdog in this election.

McCain is a godsend to Republicans in some ways because he's uniquely competitive in a year that's clearly as anti-Republican as, perhaps, 1974. But it's still an uphill fight for him.

One can already picture how the infighting will begin.

McCain-loss scenario
For example, let's assume McCain is defeated because the GOP trailed Democrats in the enthusiasm quotient.

Expect the loudest critics to be movement conservatives.

They'll claim that McCain was doomed from the start because he failed to win the hearts and minds of conservatives during his primary run.

And because conservatives were letdown by primary results, they never came around for him in the general election.

These folks will make their point by claiming the follwing: McCain won the Republican nomination without the significant support of any movement or social conservatives.

Think about his primary wins which set the stage for wrapping up the nomination.

Video Todd's First Read May 23: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on the possibility of an Obama and Clinton "dream ticket" and the release of McCain's medical records. MSNBC

They occurred in New Hampshire (where he was buoyed by an influx of independents), South Carolina (where social conservatives split their support three ways between, Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney) and Florida (where moderate Gov. Charlie Crist threw his considerable political muscle behind turning out casual — translation: moderate — Republicans).

He didn't win a single important primary where he proved he could win over social conservatives.

Huckabee to blame?
McCain's folks will argue that the presence of Huckabee prevented McCain from being given an opportunity to prove that he could woo social conservatives.

But, facts are facts, and McCain won this nomination without conservatives.

To their credit, McCain's camps recognizes that this evangelical enthusiasm gap is a problem. And that's why they rushed out the endorsements of Pastors Hagee and Parsley.

They were looking to prove their social conservative bona fides. But as we now know, the campaign did a poor job vetting these guys and they've since had to throw both pastors under the proverbial bus.

In fact, I'd argue the clumsy way this whole Hagee/Parsley thing turned out shows just how inexperienced McCain is when it comes to wooing this crucial part of the Republican electorate.

Don't be surprised, by the way, if the McCain camp ends up leaning toward picking a southern "evangelical acceptable" running mate because of how things stand now.

They want to vote against Obama, but do they really want to vote for McCain?

But this crack-up with the GOP won't just include conservatives pointing fingers. Moderates and pro-business conservatives will blame "talk radio conservatives" for making the party look xenophobic during the immigration debate, in turn, driving away Hispanic voters.

If Obama can somehow manage to win two or more western states (like Colorado and New Mexico), it will give this argument more credence.

These infighting episodes that political parties go through aren't called civil wars for nothing, so trust that the finger-pointing will be all over the place.

Obviously, a McCain loss would also be coupled with a potential GOP slaughter on the House and Senate level, creating all sorts of new factions trying to blame one Republican constituency for the loss.

In short, the GOP infighting under this McCain-loss scenario would be ideological in nature and very ugly.

There will be lots of folks trying to clean up the mess, including people like Romney and Huckabee — two candidates who both lost the nomination to McCain.

This is what makes McCain's running mate choice fascinating, because a running mate on a losing ticket might end up sharing the blame. He or she then might not be trusted to help lead the party in the future.

Think about that, Mr. Romney and Mr. Huckabee as you both vie to be on that national ticket.

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