Reality upended expectations in 2008

The Bill effect
And what about Bill? What pundit or pollster two years ago would have predicted Bill Clinton’s intervention in the campaign would do so little good for his wife?

Back in March of 2006, Donna Brazile, who ran Al Gore's 2000 campaign, predicted that, largely due to Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton would do well in African-American precincts.

“Bill Clinton is beloved (among black voters), and to the extent that these voters have a chance to cast their votes early in the process, it will be very difficult to stop her nomination," Brazile said.

Rendell's race analysis
And who would have foreseen that Obama’s parentage, (his mother a Kansan, his father a Kenyan), would be so overt a factor in the campaign?

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Clinton ally, pointed out last February that, “You've got conservative whites here (in Pennsylvania), and I think there are some whites who are probably not ready to vote for an African-American candidate.”

That had been a recurring theme of the campaign and became more so after Clinton won Pennsylvania's primary.

Now it's the Republicans turn
But what about the GOP?

The collapse of conventional wisdom about the Republican contest was as spectacular as on the Democratic side.

Take would-be president George Allen.

“Allen and Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney seem the top contenders for the conservative spot,” said the right-of-center magazine National Review in its boosterish November 2005 cover story on Allen.

Allen “probably has the early advantage,” the magazine concluded. It quoted conservative strategist Grover Norquist who said Allen “is right now best positioned in the sweet spot of Republican politics.”

But then came his YouTube moment, with his now infamous "Macaca" taunt during his Senate reelection campaign.

And then there's Thompson, Huckabee and McCain
After Allen lost his Senate seat and vanished from the presidential contenders list, conservatives turned to Romney, and former senator and TV star Fred Thompson.

Video Giuliani on polls Feb. 27:  While running for the Republican nomination, Rudy Giuliani would often cite national polls to argue his electability in the general election, as he did in September 2007. NBC News Web Extra

But few foresaw that Thompson would prove to be so inert on the campaign trail.

And consider former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. Few expected he would so completely charm the national media and be the last one standing against John McCain.

And what about the Arizona senator? He defied the predictions.

He went from being the front-runner in the National Journal poll of GOP insiders at the end of 2006, to politically moribund in July 2007, when his poor fundraising forced him to cut staff.

At the time, reporters used words such as "deeply troubled" and "in a political and financial crisis" to describe McCain's campaign.

Six months later McCain upended expectations again. His triumph in the Florida primary was the end for both Romney and Giuliani.

As late as November of 2007, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal national survey indicated that Giuliani was the leader in the Republican race. But Giuliani decided to gamble everything on Florida’s Jan. 29 primary.

Rarely has a candidate made so disastrous a strategic decision.

But don't forget Ron Paul
Finally in a year of one darned improbable thing after another, who’d have imagined the rise of Ron Paul and a legion of devoted online fans?

The Texas congressman, 1988 Libertarian candidate (winning 0.5 percent of the popular vote) and amateur monetary policy wonk, sparked a zealous grassroots movement.

Paul even managed a stunning one-day online fundraising record, bringing in nearly $6 million.

He even had more cash on hand than McCain at one point, and more cash on hand than seven other presidential hopefuls — combined.

Paul seemed as astonished as anyone by his success. “There’s something very strange going on,” he said last October. “I don’t think anyone has fully comprehended how big it is.”

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