Special Coverage of the Indiana and North Carolina Primaries

Guests: Howard Dean, DNC chairman; Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”; Harold Ford, fmr. Congressman (D-Tenn.) and NBC News analyst; Lisa Caputo, Clinton sr. campaign advisor and fmr. press secretary for Sen. Hillary Clinton; fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD); Michelle Bernard, MSNBC political analyst; Rev. Eugene Rivers, Azusa Christian Community Church; Terry McAuliffe, Clinton campaign chairman; Sen. John Kerry (D-MA); Rep. James Clyburn (D- S.C.); Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.); Howard Fineman, Newsweek senior Washington correspondent and MSNBC political analyst; Maria Teresa Petersen, Voto Latino

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR:  Senator Clinton was asked this morning how many delegates were required to nomination.  She answered, “I think it’s 2,209.”  That number does not sound right if you’ve been working with that silly official number Democratic number of 2,025.  The difference is obvious.

Senator Clinton is already counting Michigan and Florida.  The interview, by the way, took place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, home of the Indy 500.

Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines.

Groundhog Day, or the last seduction?

His problem, a loss in North Carolina or Indiana tonight has far more symbolic than practical meaning.  Her problem, these are really the last major primaries to rally around, the last major primaries in which to symbolically impress the superdelegates.

Everybody’s problem, what to do if, as expected, they split tonight?

With Lee Cowan at Obama headquarters in Raleigh; Andrea Mitchell and Ron Allen with the Clinton campaign in Indianapolis; Norah O’Donnell with exit polling; the analysis of NBC News Washington bureau chief Tim Russert; NBC News special correspondent Tom Brokaw; and the anchor of “NBC Nightly News,” Brian Williams; political director Chuck Todd, by the numbers; Howard Fineman at the campaign listening post, the insiders, former congressman Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford.

The RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel: David Gregory, Pat Buchanan, Rachel Maddow and Eugene Robinson.

And our guests: Democratic chair Howard Dean; Senators John Kerry and Claire McCaskill; former Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle; and House majority whip James Clyburn.

This is MSNBC’s coverage of the Indiana and North Carolina Democratic presidential primary.

Greetings yet again from MSNBC and NBC News world headquarters at Rockefeller Center in New York.

On my side, Chris Matthews.  I’m Keith Olbermann.  And after tonight, as Chuck Todd so succinctly put it, there will be more undeclared delegates available in the back rooms than in the voting rooms.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR:  Ha!

OLBERMANN:  True?

MATTHEWS:  Yes.  I think after this I think the—the speedway ends.  It’s now about the hassling and the hustling and the whatever—the haggling over votes.  It’s going to be different from now on, but this marathon dance is getting to an end.

OLBERMANN:  So who then does Senator Clinton play to if there is no significant voter after this one tonight?

MATTHEWS:  Well, I think she’s got to build the idea that she’s won the second half of the game.  She’s been very strong in the last several weeks, and he hasn’t won a big one since February.

She’ll play to the fact that Reverend Wright was a big issue.  She’ll play to the fact that all kinds of things are happening atmospherically.

His advantage, however, is the miracle.  He continues to lead dramatically in the elected delegates.  He could well be the leader after tonight as well.

A strong leader.  And I’ve always asked this simple question—after all the (INAUDIBLE) and confusion, if he gets the most elected delegates at the end of the season, how on God’s earth does the Democratic Party deny the nomination to an African-American who’s finally, finally, after 300 years on this continent, won the jackpot?

OLBERMANN:  With great difficulty, and to their own great despair, probably.  That’s how they would have to do it.

MATTHEWS:  I don’t think there’s any easy way—I don’t know how much finesse Bill Clinton has got in his basket, but I don’t think he’s got enough.

OLBERMANN:  Well, that’s far ahead of us still.  A long night ahead of us here.

And my rhetorical question is, you mentioned all these games, second halves and such.  I’m not sure what the sport is yet.  It may be roller derby, for all we know.

The last polls close in Indiana at 7:00 Eastern, and in North Carolina at 7:30, but the early indicators of the why, if not the who, are becoming available to us now.

And Norah O’Donnell, as usual, is back to join us for the preview of the first batch.

Hi, Norah.

NORAH O’DONNELL, MSNBC ANCHOR:  Hello.  That’s right. And this is a little bit of tease of the first batch.

And in fact, the controversy surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright was an important factor in how they voted in Indiana and North Carolina.  In just a few minutes, I’m going to break it down for you, too, how it played differently among blacks and the whites.

OLBERMANN:  I think we might have a guess of how it played differently in those two groups.

O’DONNELL:  Yes.

OLBERMANN:  And we’ll see.  We’ve been surprised by these numbers before.  We’ll get them in full for you later on.

Thank you, Norah.

O’DONNELL:  You’re welcome.

OLBERMANN:  And let’s get an early read from NBC’s Washington bureau chief, the moderator of “Meet the Press.”  Tim Russert joins us now.

Tim, good evening.

TIM RUSSERT, HOST, “MEET THE PRESS”:  Hi, Keith.

OLBERMANN:  All right.  Somebody wins both tonight, I think everybody knows the consequences of that.  If she wins Indiana huge and he wins North Carolina huge, we all know the consequences of that.  But if they split and she wins Indiana narrowly or he wins North Carolina narrowly, what happens then?

RUSSERT:  I think people are going to take a hard look to the delegates.  Who won more delegates, and where did they come from?

Keith, you’re so right.  After tonight, if there’s a split, this is a battle to convince the superdelegates who are undeclared to side with either Clinton or Obama.  And if one of these candidates cuts into the lead of elected delegates, if Clinton has a big advantage tonight in that, or if Obama adds to his elected delegate lead, then he’s going to need fewer and fewer of these undeclared superdelegates.

There’s only 250 left.  And if he suddenly only needs 60 or 70 of them in order to close the deal, then, of course, it’s a huge night.

That’s why we have to look at the vote, figure out who won these states in terms of popular vote.  But we can’t take our eye off these elected delegates tonight.  It’s a big story.

OLBERMANN:  Is there anything in here that has the potential to force Senator Clinton’s hand or this?  Is there anything tonight that has the potential to end it?  Or is she the final determinant of when her campaign ends?

RUSSERT:  She is.  But if she lost both states tonight, there are people very close to her who I’ve talked to who said they would go to her and say it’s time to fold.

But if it’s a split, and she wins Indiana and he wins North Carolina, clearly, she wants to go on to West Virginia next week, and in two weeks, Kentucky.  Two states made for her with the kind of demographic and ethnic mix.

And her sense will be, let me continue.  Let me stay in the game.  You can’t recover a fumble unless you’re on the field.  And who knows what can happen in the next two or three weeks or two or three months?

OLBERMANN:  To resuscitate our favorite word from Pennsylvania—margin.  Is there anything in margin that makes a difference?  Does it matter by how much, who wins where?  Is there any victory in Indiana for Senator Clinton that would not be won, or any victory in North Carolina that would not be won for him?

RUSSERT:  Based on my conversations with some of the undeclared superdelegates, they are looking at the margin.  One said, I want to see if Obama is going to crater after the Reverend Wright situation.  If she blows him out in Indiana, and he barely hangs on in North Carolina, that’s important for us to see.

We want to see how she performs.  It’s been interesting.  The whole conversation is, Obama is having a hard time with white blue collar voters.  The converse of that is, Senator Clinton is having a horrendous time with black voters.

And you cannot win Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania with a large, loyal black vote in November.  And if she continues to lose black voters in the primary, 90-10, that’s a significant problem for her and it’s a significant problem for Obama if he can’t win those white ethnic voters making less than $50,000.

MATTHEWS:  This has become behavioral, Tim, the fact that—what do you think of the fact that Bill Clinton has been designated to go out and work the white communities, the rural white communities of North Carolina?  Now every black person in the country knows Bill Clinton is there to get white votes.

RUSSERT:  And he’s been tireless.  Nine stops today.  We just saw a list of the radio stations he called in, going from stop to stop.

There’s no doubt about it that, in the mind of black America, and the information not only statistically, but anecdotally, is overwhelming.  And that’s why we’ve been seeing, leading up to tonight, blacks voting for Obama 85-15, 90-10.

And that can pose long-term problems for the party just as white voters voting two to one for Hillary Clinton.  This party is going to need a lot of time to heal, because each side now is digging in and finding the Republican alternative more appealing than the Democratic opposition, which will not last for all the people who are now expressing that, but if it lasts for even 10 or 15 percent, it’s a problem.

OLBERMANN:  All right.  I’ll throw out the first cliche of the night. 

Time bust is of the essence.

Tim Russert, thanks.  We’ll talk to you later on.

MATTHEWS:  OK.

How big is tonight?  Well, let’s check in with NBC political director Chuck Todd, who goes by the numbers.

Chuck, I rely on you for hard facts.

CHUCK TODD, NBC POLITICAL DIRECTOR:  OK.  Let me give you the hard facts.

Let’s take a look at Indiana.  Here’s what we know delegate-wise.  It’s worth 72 delegates.

That’s going to be divided pretty closely, pretty evenly, probably 40-32 max on each side.  But where are they going to be strong?  Let’s take a look at their different strongholds.

Hillary Clinton, demographically we know she does well with white Catholics, with working class voters, and with seniors.  That’s going to mean she’s going to carry the second, the third, the sixth and the eighth districts, probably without much of a problem.

This is where a large part of the rural white vote is, working class white vote, in the northeast part of the state.  A lot of folks have lost manufacturing jobs.

So let’s take a look at where Obama is going to do well.

We know he does well with African-Americans, with young voters, with Independents.  As far as congressional districts are concerned, this means the first district, Gary, Indiana, that Chicago media market, though we have heard questions about how much the Reverend Wright controversy was covered on local Chicago TV, and whether that actually had a negative effect.

I’m really going to be watching that first district closely to see how big is Obama’s margin.

Then, of course, Marion County, Indianapolis, that seventh congressional district.  More importantly, we’re curious about the suburbs around there.

So what does that leave us?  That leaves us with the swing areas, the fourth, the fifth and the ninth.

The fourth and fifth are pretty obvious.  That’s the Indianapolis media market.  This is where we’ll learn if white suburban voters came back to Obama.

They abandoned him in Pennsylvania, around the Philadelphia suburbs, Chris.  But did they abandon him around Indianapolis?

And then the ninth I’m only half curious about.  It should end up being a Clinton district.  But Baron Hill, the congressman down there, former Indiana high school basketball hall of famer, he endorsed Obama early in this, relatively early compared to everybody else.  The Louisville media market is a very liberal paper out there, endorsed Obama early.

So, maybe he does better than expected there.  He would have to if he somehow won Indiana.

MATTHEWS:  OK.  Thank you very much, Chuck Todd.

Let’s check in now with the Clinton campaign.  NBC’s Andrea Mitchell is at the Clinton headquarters in Indianapolis.

Andrea, I wonder here, I just wonder about this campaign.  This one is the one they have to win tonight, right?

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT:  Must win Indiana.  I’ve talked to Evan Bayh, the senator, just again now, also the state party chairman, Democratic Party chairman who has endorsed Hillary Clinton.  They are slightly optimistic in looking at the numbers that are coming in from all parts of the state.

They acknowledged what Chuck and Tim have just been reporting.  They have to do well in white rural areas, and offset his anticipated big wins in the Gary, Indiana, area and also in Indianapolis, right here.

So, they are looking to see whether those districts are turning out.  There’s been a very big Republican vote.  They don’t know which way that’s cutting.

Is that a chaos theory vote, Republicans trying to mess around with the Democratic vote?  Are those Republicans looking for a race because they haven’t had a primary race themselves?  Eager to vote for Obama because he is more upscale, more independent, or is it, you know, Republicans who will eventually go to John McCain?

It’s very, very hard to read this.  We’ll know more from the exit polls later.  But this is absolutely a must-win state for Hillary Clinton.  I’ve been told what Tim has been told from people close to Hillary Clinton, that she in fact would probably not stay very much longer in this race if she doesn’t win Indiana.

MATTHEWS:  OK.  Thank you very much, Andrea Mitchell.

I guess it’s a step forward for the Democratic Party, accused historically of being disorganized, that now they have to outsource their chaos, courtesy of Rush Limbaugh.

NBC’s Lee Cowan is in Raleigh, North Carolina, right now with the Obama campaign—Lee.

Optimism reigning there, or whatever?

LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT:  Well, I think it is to a certain extent.  I mean, I talked to the campaign a short time ago, and their sense is, absent any huge victory by Hillary Clinton, both here in North Carolina and Indiana, they think tonight is still going to be a good night for them, because as they point out, they are still ahead in the delegate counts.

If this is split right down the middle tonight, they are still going to be ahead in terms of delegates.  They say that Hillary Clinton would have to win, by their count, about 70 percent of the remaining delegates to even get close.  The time is running out.  They number of delegates is running out.  And they say as much as perception-wise, they certainly don’t want to suffer a loss in either of these states tonight.

At the end of the day, the numbers do matter.

MATTHEWS:  OK.  Thank you very much Lee Cowan, who is with the Obama campaign in Raleigh, North Carolina.

OLBERMANN:  Let’s turn now to the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Howard Dean.

A great pleasure to talk to you tonight, Governor.  How are you?

HOWARD DEAN, DNC CHAIRMAN:  Thanks for having me on.

OLBERMANN:  Let me just read this from politico.com.  I mentioned this at the top of the hour as we began our coverage.

Asked at the Indianapolis Speedway this morning, Hillary Clinton confirms that she views the threshold for delegate victory as the count that includes Michigan and Florida.  “I think it’s 2,209,” she said.

Isn’t it still 2,025 according to all the rules?

DEAN:  Keith, there’s going to be a rules committee meeting on the 31^st of May where we’re going to take up the issue of Florida and Michigan and how to deal with them.

And let me just—before we get into how many delegates and all that, let me just say, there’s three principals.

The first is, you’ve got to respect the wishes of the voters in Michigan and Florida.  They didn’t cause this mess, it was politicians that caused this mess.

The second is, you’ve got to respect these two campaigns.  If you’re going to change the rules in the campaign, you’ve really got to do it with the cooperation of both campaigns.

And thirdly, you’ve got to respect the voters—the wishes of the 48 states and the voters in the 48 states that is did the right thing and followed the rules, and did respect the early states in Nevada and South Carolina and New Hampshire and Iowa.

So, there’s going to be some kind of a compromise, is what I would predict.  I can’t tell you what’s in it.  But right now, the number is 2,025.  On May 31^st, we’ll find out what the rules committee does and how they plan to work out a seating delegation from Michigan and Florida.

OLBERMANN:  Have you been, in retrospect, overly optimistic about the ability of these two sides to compromise, to get together?  I’m thinking of the interview from New York One television, the cable operation in New York in February.  And the quote was, “Sometime in the middle of March or April, then we’re going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of arrangement,” in terms of resolving all the disputes between them, and, in fact, resolving a nominee.

We’re obviously past those dates.

DEAN:  Yes.  I don’t think that anybody foresaw a race that this was close with the excellent candidates that we have.  But, you know, I think we’re going to let all the voters vote, and that’s going to happen as of June 3^rd.  And then as the process continues to go, the unpledged delegates will continue to say, therefore, and I think we’ll have a nominee by the end of June.

That’s what I’m hoping for.

OLBERMANN:  Well, barring a blowout though tonight, Senator Clinton is going to emerge with her future more in the hands of superdelegates than elected delegates, which changes I guess the focus of what the campaign becomes.

Do you have guidance at that point for undeclared superdelegates or participants in the primaries?

DEAN:  I would actually disagree with you.  There’s 800 -- or 796 unplugged delegates.  Over 500 of them have already said who they are for.

So, the idea that suddenly the superdelegates are going to get into a smoke filled room and change everything I think is silly.  They’re voters like everybody else.  They’re governors and senators and congressmen, but 60 percent of them are ordinary Americans who are active in Democratic politics.

They look like ordinary Americans.  They are of the ages of ordinary Americans.  They’re the same ethic diversity and gender diversity of ordinary Americans.  They are ordinary Americans.

So I think this business of the superdelegates has sort of been a media-created myth.  There are unpledged delegates who were elected by other groups of Democrats at different times.  They have a roll in this process, and they’re going to continue to play a role in this process.  But I wouldn’t look for some smoke filled room to upstage the voters.

MATTHEWS:  I’m trying to understand this, Governor Dean.  If you look at this continuing process from an Obama perspective, you’d have to wonder what rule book the Clintons are willing to abide by?

Are they willing to abide by elected delegates, by what?  And it seems to me if they are going to compromise, as you suggest they will have to with regard to Michigan and Florida, don’t they have to get some kind of commitment from the Clinton side that, whatever they compromise to, the Clintons will abide by that rule, whether it’s elected delegates or whatever it is.

DEAN:  Look, we have had—these campaigns have worked together.  In fact, one of the great moments of this past weekend was in North Carolina, they both went to the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, and both said by name, if so and so wins, the other candidate wins, I will support them and I will work my heart out for them.

That is very important.  That hasn’t been said before.

Look, each of these candidates understand that we want a convention that runs well and that they need the support—they need the support of the one that loses.  So I think that we will see people working together.

Behind the scenes, we’ve already had some things that have been very, very good that these candidates have done together and their campaigns have done together.  So, I am pretty optimistic.

Look, John McCain is a disaster for the country.  He’s a third Bush term.

He’s wrong on Iraq, he’s wrong on health care, he’s wrong on the economy.  Those are the things that people really care about in this election.

People don’t want troops in Iraq for 100 years no matter what their role is and what John McCain claims he really said.  They don’t want—that money belongs here at home dealing with jobs and all the messes that the Bush/McCain folks have left us in terms of tax policy and health care.

We really want a change in this country.  That’s why you’re seeing huge turnouts in North Carolina and Indiana today.  That’s why you’ve seen them all along.

So the real issue here is frankly not Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.  The real issue is, what are we going to do to change our country so that we can be sure that America will be back on the right track?

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS:  Governor, you speak like a person what’s going to stomp McCain, and yet all the match-ups and all the national polls show this very even.  I agree with you about the conditions and the attitudes of the country, and the unpopularity of our president.  But all the polls that match John McCain up against either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama show them pretty close.

DEAN:  And the truth is they don’t know much about Senator McCain.  We have an ad up, as you know, that shows Senator McCain in his own words talking about his views on the economy and on Iraq.

MATTHEWS:  Yes.

DEAN:  Fox News did a poll that showed that—they didn’t, but an organization that works with them did, that shows when the public sees those ads, when Independent voters see those ads, support for John McCain drops 10 points.  Those ads have not been shown widely.  They will be.

They haven’t been shown widely.  In fact, if anybody wants to help us show them widely, www.Democrats.org, and send us some money.

But the truth is, when people find out about John McCain’s record, that he was for immigration reform before he was against it, that he was against Bush’s tax cuts before he was for it, that he was, sadly to say, against torture before he supported President Bush’s veto of the Democratic bill that would ban waterboarding, this is a candidate who will say anything to be president.  And Americans don’t want that anymore.  They want somebody they can believe in again.

OLBERMANN:  He’s Howard Dean, and he approved that message.

The chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Governor, thanks for your time tonight.

DEAN:  Thanks, Keith.  Thanks, Chris.

OLBERMANN:  All right.  Now let’s get some of those early numbers from exit polling, as promised.  And for that, we go into the virtual reality that is containing Norah O’Donnell at the moment.

Norah, good evening.

O’DONNELL:  Hey, good evening to both of you.

And you know, the controversy surrounding the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama’s former pastor, did appear to have an impact with voters in Indiana and North Carolina today.

Our exit polls show the situation with Reverend Wright was an important consideration for close to half of those who voted today.  Forty-eight percent in Indiana and 48 percent in North Carolina.

Now, was there a different impact by race?  Well, in Indiana, we actually see much—we don’t see much difference.

About half of them—of the whites, 49 percent, say the situation with Reverend Wright was an important consideration.  But almost as many African-Americans see that in the Hoosier State.  Forty-four percent say the controversy influenced them.

In North Carolina, a southern state with a much larger black population

than Indiana’s, the impact by race seems to be very similar to Indiana

49 percent of whites in North Carolina and 45 percent of blacks—or African-Americans say the Wright controversy influenced their vote.  About half of each group say Wright had little or no impact.

Our exit polls also tell us which specific groups of whites were most likely to be affected by the Reverend Wright controversy.  This is pretty interesting.

Looking at Indiana, we see about six in 10 white voters over age 65.  They were more likely also to attend weekly religious services and live in small towns or rural parts of the state.  When we look at North Carolina, it’s pretty much the same story there as well.

Now, in Indiana, which happens to be a whiter state, Hillary does somewhat better among white voters who decided late.  But in North Carolina, there’s no difference between white early deciders and those who decided in the past week—Chris and Keith.

OLBERMANN:  Norah O’Donnell with the first set of exit polls.

Thank you.

And here’s another—not a number, per se, but a field note from “The Indianapolis Star.”

We talked about the tough voting standards in Indiana and the IDs and the controversy over—people that were nuns turned away from a polling place across the street from Notre Dame today.  I mean, it’s tough.

This is how tough it was.  Senator Bayh went to vote in Indianapolis and was turned away.  He was in the wrong precinct.

That tells you something.

Coming up, our RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE panel.  And we’ll hear from both campaigns about how they are feeling tonight as the night begins.

You’re watching MSBNC’s coverage of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries.  First poll closings at the top of the hour.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:  I intend to go to the end of the process.  We’re going to wait and see what the voters here have said.  I think people have responded to my message of jobs, jobs, jobs, and trying to get the oil companies to pay the gas tax for the summer.

So I feel good.  But we’re going to wait and actually see what the votes turn out to be.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:  Both races are going to be close.  I think that Senator Clinton is slightly favored here in Indiana.  And I am slightly favored in North Carolina.  But they could go either way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN:  Insomuch as the polls do not close across the state of Indiana until 7:00 Eastern Time, 30 minutes from now, we’re not going to characterize anything there yet.  But there are some polls already closed and already reporting.  And as you see, 6,300 votes have been cast so far in Indiana, for what that’s worth.

We continue now with MSNBC’s coverage of the Indiana/North Carolina primaries.  As we said, those polls close in Indiana completely by the top of the hour.  In North Carolina, it’s 7:30, the closure time.

MATTHEWS:  And now to the real excitement of the evening.  We want to introduce our panel—NBC’s David Gregory; The Washington Post’s Eugene Robinson, who is an MSNBC political analyst; MSNBC political analyst Patrick Buchanan; Rachel Maddow, Air America Radio, who’s also an MSNBC political analyst.

There they have—David.

DAVID GREGORY, MSNBC ANCHOR:  All right.  Thanks very much to both of you.

Every night on RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE, we convene the panel and we talk about “The Headline.”  That’s where I want to start tonight.

What is our headline tonight?

I’ll begin on what these candidates have to prove, and I’ll focus on Barack Obama.

I do think for him he’s got to show that he can weather Reverend Wright.  That’s a test tonight.  Also, whether his style, his temperament, this unwillingness on Obama’s part to play the conventional wisdom game and engage Hillary Clinton the way that some have said that he should, whether that is working or whether it’s proving him to be too aloof because he doesn’t engage, and whether that’s going to play out in the polls.

Pat, what do have they got to prove tonight?

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC ANALYST:  Hillary Clinton, has she maintained the momentum out of Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, and grabbed Indiana, where she was behind, and close the gap in North Carolina?

Secondly, has Barack Obama stopped the hemorrhaging among white working class, ethnic, Catholic seniors?  Because that is a crucial question for the fall election.

GREGORY:  Is it just seniors, though?  Or that’s the spin they put out. 

Is it younger working class whites as well?

BUCHANAN:  I would say it’s everybody above 40.  All the way up, quite frankly.  He does extremely well with young people, but that’s the real question, because I think those are the voters that will decide between McCain and Obama if it’s that race.

GREGORY:  Rachel, what do you see tonight?

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC ANALYST:  Tonight I think it is status quo versus expectations, because the status quo, the expectations game here, it’s all about whether or not this race continues indefinitely or whether there is some reason and some means for the Democratic Party to end it.

I think everybody is expecting tonight, the common wisdom, is that it will be a split decision.  And that that will mean that the campaign continues indefinitely.

GREGORY:  Right.

MADDOW:  Barack Obama, in particular, and maybe even Hillary Clinton, is going to have to come up with a way to say we need to expect that this will end at some point so that we do not  drag this into the convention.  Because dragging it to the convention is strategically so unsound for the party.

GREGORY:  Does this determine something tonight about this race and what we’ve seen over the past two weeks?

MADDOW:  Yes.  What happens to—I think it’s a very big picture win, though.  It has to be that one of these candidates wins both states.  That means expectations are not being met...

(CROSSTALK)

GREGORY:  Gene, your headline for tonight?  What do you think it will prove?

EUGENE ROBINSON, “THE WASHINGTON POST”:  Well, Obama has to demonstrate that he’s back on his stride.  And I think that’s what worry the superdelegates more than specific issues, I think, was the sense that Obama wasn’t the galloping candidate that he had been, that all this forward motion had kind of stalled.

Toward the end of this campaign, actually on the gas tax issue, which is generally thought to be a good issue for Hillary Clinton, he actually pushed back in a way that I think heartened the superdelegates.

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON:  He was animated.  He knew what he wanted to say.  He was on top of the issue.

BUCHANAN:  But let me ask you...

GREGORY:  And it fit his brand of politics by saying this is gimmicky, this is not a real debate.

BUCHANAN:  Let me ask Rachel—look, if the only way Hillary can win this thing is to drag it out to the convention, why not drag it out to the convention?  She’s in this race not for the well-being of the Democratic Party, but to win the presidency of the United States.

MADDOW:  See, but that’s the point.  She’s not in it to win the nomination, she’s in it to win the presidency.

BUCHANAN:  Right.

MADDOW:  Either candidate can read the tea leaves and see that it would be bad to have a five-minute-long general election against John McCain after he gets six months of uninterrupted good press.

BUCHANAN:  But wouldn’t it not be worse to lose the nomination?  For heaven’s sakes—fight all the way to the convention if you’ve got a chance.

MADDOW:  But she could make the case just as well as he could make the case that the Democrats need a nominee now.  She could force the issue while she has more momentum, particularly after tonight, that they need to decide on her now.

GREGORY:  Let me—let me get in here.

BUCHANAN:  Or telling him to get out.

GREGORY:  Gene, final comment before we break.

ROBINSON:  Historically, it’s bad to choose a nominee at the convention.  You tend not to win if you do that.

MADDOW:  Yes.

ROBINSON:  So, you could say it’s bad for the Democrats.  I think it depends on how she drags it out to August, if indeed she does drag it out to the convention.   There are ways to destroy the party.  There are ways to save it.

GREGORY:  To be continued.  Gentlemen, back to you.  A little bit later on, we want to go inside the war room of Barack Obama and look beyond tonight, as to how he tries to retool the campaign.

OLBERMANN:  David, thank you.  Half an hour until it all closes in Indiana and an hour until it closes in North Carolina.  Still ahead of us here, two former members of Congress on the battle between Obama and Clinton.  Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford our insiders.  Plus, we get the inside word from the Clinton and Obama campaigns.  This is MSNBC’s coverage of the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS:  Welcome back to MSNBC’s coverage of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries.  Polls in Indiana close in a little less than a half hour now and in North Carolina in about an hour.  NBC’s Ron Allen is in Indianapolis right now, covering the Clinton campaign.  He joins us now with more.  Ron, the jitters are on, I suppose?

RON ALLEN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT:  I think they are, in North Carolina more so than here in Indiana.  I think the Clinton campaign has felt much better about this state all along than they have about North Carolina, even though down south, Bill Clinton in particular made a really big push, nine events some days, eight events other days, really hitting those rural and working class areas, trying to drum up more support.

There are some things in the exit polls that you have been talking about that suggest things could be bad down there for them tonight.  Here, talking to Senator Evan Bayh on the plane last night, who has been one of Senator Clinton’s biggest supporters here, he was saying he was going to look to the northwest corner of the state, the part that includes the Chicago TV market, to really see how things are going up there.  If she’s making inroads in that part of the state—we made a couple stops up there yesterday and the day before because Senator Clinton was really trying to bite into a part of the state where Barack Obama perhaps has some advantage.

The other issue playing up there is the Reverend Wright matter.  Interesting to point out that it’s been played over and over again up there by Chicago TV, who have helicopters hovering over his house.  The issues have been played much differently than it has nationally there and we’ll see how that works out.  I think some of the polls that we’ve been seeing, already exit polls, suggest that the issue has been kind neutral so far, people saying it’s important or not important and it has an affect on their vote or not.

That’s the state of play here in Indiana.  They are expecting this to wrap up fairly quickly.  This state has a history of reporting results fairly early.  And the polls will be closed across the state very soon.

MATTHEWS:  Ron, does the campaign of Barack Obama, the people you talk to, are they angry at the media for playing up the Wright story so much?

ALLEN:  Well, I think it goes with the territory.  Most of the people there who are pros know it goes with the territory.  Some people in the campaign that I have talked to over the months kind of knew this was coming.  They knew that this issue would be out there at some point.  It was my understanding that there had been a number of people in the campaign who had tried to have Reverend Wright go away for some time and he didn’t.  It’s curious to me as to why he popped up as he did a couple of weeks ago on his media tour.

But, this was not unexpected and I think their pleased that it seems to be neutral.  But, of course, we’ll see what the voters have to say.  It’s very difficult to poll these kinds of things, these kinds of issues.

MATTHEWS:  Sure is.  Thank you very much, Ron Allen.

OLBERMANN:  Exit polls saying that a little less than half say the Wright story is important and there are still helicopters over the man’s house in Chicago, and it would still only get to drive it by 50 percent, which says something about the actual influence of the media.  Now, about the Clinton campaign, let’s turn to NBC’s special correspondent Tom Brokaw with more about that side of things.

Tom, good evening, where are they seeing the race going beyond tonight?  Where is the end of the Yellow Brick Road?

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT:  Keith, I’ve been talking to senior people in both campaigns over the weekend and as late as this afternoon.  I think to summarize the Clinton campaign at this point, they had hoped going into the weekend that maybe they had a shot in the North Carolina.  They didn’t sound nearly as confident today.  Now, they are looking at another kind of scenario.  What they want to do is win the popular vote by the time this is all over, at the end of the first weekend in June, obviously, and then try to make the best case to the super delegates that she’s in the best position to win in the fall.

When I asked one of the very senior people in the Clinton campaign whether this would go all the way to the convention, he said, zero chance of that.  The super delegates won’t let it happen.  They will decide some time after that first Tuesday in June about who the candidate is likely to be.

On the Obama side, they are still very confident about their math, but they do believe that their candidate has to get better.  They recognize that he has not had a good couple of weeks.  He was not only tired, but he really didn’t have the kinds of answers that people wanted, and he wasn’t addressing a lot of the issues that are on the minds of the voters out there.  To sum it up, as we go into tonight, I think this will be the kind of break that we’re looking for to go into the final stage of the campaign.  It will set the stage.  Unless one or the other wins both of the primaries tonight, it will play out until the end of June, and then it will be who can make the best pitch to the super delegates, most likely.

OLBERMANN:  Tom, is there a point, to flip the phrase around that has been directed exclusively to Senator Obama back towards the Clinton campaign, are you hearing from them they are beginning to get the question of—in terms of a comeback, in terms of a resuscitation of her would be candidacy—how does she close the deal?

BROKAW:  One of the things that—pardon me, one of the Obama people said to me, she’s very tough.  We’ve always known that.  Moreover, she just loves this.  This is what she was born to do and her husband, the same way.  In fact, this particular person had looked at running for president himself one time and had a conversation with the Clintons and they said, it’s going to be the best time of your life if you decide to do that.  It is showing in how they are performing during this campaign themselves.

On the Obama side, one of the people involved in his campaign are saying, look, this is a guy who had a big run.  It’s his first time in a national campaign and that’s beginning to show through some.  He’s got to get stronger and better and—because the fall is going to be tougher than what we’re going through right now.  Does that answer your question, Keith?

OLBERMANN:  Indirectly, it does.  Obviously, they are game for the fight, but what is—where does she win?

BROKAW:  How does she close the deal?  She closes the deal, they hope, by getting within 100 delegates and having a more substantial popular vote than Senator Obama does, and then making their case to the super delegates in the first or second week in June, and saying, I’m best equipped to run and holding out, as she has in the past, that tantalizing prospect—by the way, I would love to have Senator Obama as my vice presidential candidate.

OLBERMANN:  Well, certainly she’s stretched out the race a little bit more by introducing that 2,209 number.  That gives the game a little bit longer to go.

BROKAW:  They are going to have to work out Michigan and Florida as well.  I think there’s some suspicion on the Obama side that maybe Harold Ickes and Terry McAuliffe, for example, will be able to cut a deal.  That’s not what I’m hearing from the Hillary Clinton campaign.  They really do think it’s going to be a split the baby proposition of some kind, in which they will split the delegates.  There will be some kind of a resolution.  They don’t want to go to Denver and not seat either one of those delegations, Florida or Michigan.  It’s in the configuration of those delegates that will make the difference.

OLBERMANN:  Here we are in the 17^th overtime of the two period game.  Tom Brokaw, we’ll talk to you later on.  Many thanks.

BROKAW:  I hope so.  I’m here.

OLBERMANN:  Up next, the other big double header.  Can either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama win two tonight?  We will check in with both campaigns next, plus more from the exit polls.  You’re watching MSNBC’s live coverage of the Indiana and North Carolina Democratic presidential primaries.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS:  Welcome back to MSNBC’s live coverage of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries tonight.  Polls in Indiana will be closed in just under 15 minutes now.  As we wait for results, we have new numbers now from our exit polling, and for that we turn to Norah O’Donnell.  Norah?

O’DONNELL:  Good evening to you, Chris and Keith.  Following a week of intensifying debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama about a gas tax holiday, Democratic primary voters made it very clear today, the economy is the big concern.  In fact, discontent about the economy is so acute in both Indiana and North Carolina that more than six in ten voters identified it as the most important issue facing the country.  The war in Iraq came in a distant second.

These are actually the highest percentage of voters citing the economy as the top national issue since the Democratic primary contest started back in January.  That’s significant.  Also, our exit poll showed the economic slowdown is having a negative impact on more than eight in ten voters casting their ballots today.  In fact, nearly half of voters in Indiana say that the recession has affected their families a great deal.

Also, those most likely to say that the down turn in the economy is having a negative impact are, not surprisingly, working class voters, including women, blacks, high school graduates and those with household incomes under 50,000 dollars a year.  I think that’s obvious, Chris and Keith.  But that’s why we saw these two Democrats focus so heavily on economic issues, on courting the working class vote, as well as this big debate that they’ve had over the gas tax holiday.

MATTHEWS:  Norah, it’s always interesting to look at something we haven’t looked at before this year, which is the percentage of voters in these primaries who went to college for four years.  The tendency of those who went to college for four years to be for Barack Obama.  I was noticing the North Carolina percentage, it’s not quite up there where Connecticut was, which was enormously high of college graduates, something like 60 percent.  But very much higher than Indiana.  I wonder if we could look at that as an indication of how the results are coming in tonight.  Probably more advanced—better off for Barack, based on that one simple parameter.

O’DONNELL:  As you know, North Carolina is a changing state.  There’s a large influx of people moving to that state, younger people also moving to the research triangle as well.  The demographics of the state of North Carolina have been changing.  We’ll have more on that a little later.

MATTHEWS:  That’s my North Carolina.  I went to Chapel Hill and I felt it all around me.  It’s grown dramatically and exponentially in that way in all these years since.  Norah, thank you.  We’re going to have more from you later.

We are surrogates joining us from both the Clinton and the Obama campaign.  We begin with Senator Clinton adviser Lisa Caputo, who was press secretary to Senator Clinton when she was first lady of the United States.  Lisa, it’s always great to have you because you are an optimistic American and tonight, I’d love to know what optimism says from your campaign’s point of view?

LISA CAPUTO, CLINTON SURROGATE:  Optimism says that it looks like a great night for Senator Clinton, particularly in Indiana.  Let’s remember, Indiana was even just a short time ago.  Listening to what Norah just said about the economy, when you peel back the numbers, Chris, it’s about the white middle class voter.  Senator Clinton is winning those voters in a big way in Indiana.  That’s the people who are most impacted by the economy going into the recession.  You cannot win a general election without getting white, middle class voters.

If she takes Indiana, which it looks she could be on her way to doing, that would be the third state—third big state where she’s (sic) not been able to capture those voters after Ohio and Pennsylvania.

MATTHEWS:  You know, I was looking at a newspaper up in Boston this morning, a guy named Peter Cannellis (ph), I think his name was, saying that Hillary Clinton has made an amazing transition to what you call white working class or middle class.  She has become a person who drinks shots and beers in public, who drops her G’s in public conversation.  He was quite happy with that morphing of her into a regular person.  Do you find it authentic?

CAPUTO:  I do find it authentic, Chris, having been around her for so many years.  Let’s remember, she’s the product of a white, middle class, working class upbringing.  Her father hailed from Scranton, as you well know.  She comes from those kinds of roots.  So it’s authentic and it’s combined with her work ethic, derived out of the Methodist faith that she carries.

MATTHEWS:  You mean, all of that devenir polish out of Wellesley has been flicked aside, the Yale Law degree, the first ladyship of a state and the presidency, all flicked aside and she’s back to the raw—well, the hard scrabble roots that brought her up.  This is to be believed?  I’m being a little sarcastic, but it is an amazing thing to see.  I always thought of her as rather polished.  I always thought of her as a Seven Sisters women, an Ivy League person with an elite education, and a polish in her language and her pronunciation.  And now I find her to be a shot and beer swilling regular person from the knaves.  I wonder, what is the real Hillary?

CAPUTO:  The real Hillary is someone with an enormous work ethic at the core of her very being.  She also someone carries great compassion for every American, but particularly the working class American, because that is where her roots her.  Just because she went to Wellesley and has an Ivy League law degree, doesn’t mean she swirls white wine with the elite.  That might be considered to be her other opponent.  I think—

MATTHEWS:  Nice shot, Lisa.  Very nice shot.

CAPUTO:  Thank you.  I think it comes down to where they stand on the issues.  She’s been the one that’s been really out with a robust economic plan.  When you think about what Senator McCain has said on the economy, it’s almost laughable.  Let’s remember something else, it’s resonating.  Look at the recent poll.  She’s up in the AP/Ipsos poll, significantly ahead of Obama nationally.

MATTHEWS:  Lisa, got to go.  I’ll never forget, however, that you went to Brown and you are, in fact, one of the elite.  Thank you very much, Lisa Caputo, as well as a great person.  We’ll right be back—throughout the night, we’ll be back with Lisa.

OLBERMANN:  Now to the Obama campaign, with this little headline just dropped in from the “Raleigh News and Observer” on the subject of swilling, which came up on this last conversation, Barack Obama made a last minute surprise appearance at a downtown bar this afternoon, ordering a Pabst Blue Ribbon and spending half an hour greeting voters at the Raleigh times bar.

MATTHEWS:  On the house.

OLBERMANN:  No, he tipped 18 dollars.  Enough of the swilling, and let’s get to former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, who is supporting Senator Obama for president.  Senator Daschle, good evening.

SEN. TOM DASCHLE, FMR. SENATOR:  Great to be with you, Keith.

OLBERMANN:  We just heard Tom Brokaw talking about his sources with

the Clinton’s, about—contrary to so much that has been said of this

that automatically their goal is to bring this to the convention floor and drag this thing into August, into Denver, into that sort of spotlight and heat and humidity.  Yet, he’s saying that’s not the destination.  How is this resolved if it doesn’t go to the convention?

DASCHLE:  Keith, I don’t think it has to go to the convention at all.  Barack is only about 270 delegates shy of what it takes to win the majority of the elected delegates, 270.  We’re going to pick up about 100 tonight.  We’re—we have ten to one ratio, ten times the number of super delegates that we’ve been able to pick up since February 5^th.  It’s about 100 to ten right now.  Every day, we pick up additional super delegates.

I really believe that we’re going to be at a point sometime, probably by mid-June, where Barack is going to have surpassed that magical number and he will be the nominee.

OLBERMANN:  As you know, Senator Clinton has changed that number.  I don’t know if you were in on the conference call.  But at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway today—

MATTHEWS:  New score card.

OLBERMANN:  Yes, it went to 2,209, she believes that’s the number.  Obviously, that’s counting Michigan and Florida.  That brings back the whole issue and the DNC rules meeting at the end of this month, on the 31^st.  What’s going to happen regarding Michigan and Florida and what does it matter if Senator Clinton has already counted those delegates as part of the threshold?

DASCHLE:  As you have reported over and over, there’s no possible way.  Nobody can, with a straight face, accept the fact that Hillary Clinton ought to get those delegates.  Barack wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan, of course.  The only way to resolve this, of course, it is to divide it evenly and move on.  I think that’s ultimately how this is going to be resolved.  That’s the way it should be resolved.

OLBERMANN:  There has been a lot recently about this so called nuclear option, about not resolving it fairly, about forcing that issue on the part of the Clintons.  Is there blow back?  Is there somebody to talk them out of that?  Or how does this particular issue get resolved before it becomes its own separate version of the conflict over Michigan and Florida that we’ve had for weeks and months?

DASCHLE:  Keith, it just seems to me that if we have the majority of delegates and we’ve got a nominee, then all this becomes sort of moot point.  I can’t imagine that they would actually consider something that dramatic, something that extra-legal, at a time when we really ought to be talking about uniting the party.  As Howard Dean mentioned just the other day, just a couple minutes ago, the other day, both candidates promised to support the other if they were the nominee.  If Barack is the nominee on the 15^th or 20^th of June, I fully expect and I would hope that the whole party could expect that Hillary gets behind him, and we don’t go there or anywhere close to something that would be that radical.

OLBERMANN:  The former Democratic leader in the Senate, Tom Daschle, on behalf of the Obama campaign, thanks for your time tonight.

DASCHLE:  My pleasure.

OLBERMANN:  Right now, let’s check back before the top of the hour and closings in Indiana with NBC’s Washington bureau chief and moderator of “Meet the Press,” Tim Russert.  What do we have as we’re waiting Indiana?

RUSSERT:  What we have is this: Senator Clinton has talked to people as late as last night.  They were describing her as in the zone, believing that she has now found her voice, that she wants to keep this going.  No matter what happens tonight, she sees next week in West Virginia as a sure win.  The following week, Kentucky, is a sure win.  There’s no incentive to get out as long as she can keep winning primaries and trying to make her case with the super delegates.

The important point tonight will be what is the psychology of those super delegates after tonight’s results?  Are they open to hearing more of an argument from Senator Clinton that they would be willing to deny the person with the elected delegate lead, in order to find someone they think could be a better candidate against John McCain.  That’s the unanswered question tonight.  Senator Clinton can make all the case she wants about letting her keep going, but she has to keep getting the approval, in effect, of the super delegates, the willingness of them to hear her case out in the weeks and months ahead.

OLBERMANN:  So what are they looking for in terms of results tonight.  If Indiana is fairly close or even she wins by something in single digits and he has a bigger victory in North Carolina, is that a wash.  Is that a push?  Is the North Carolina big victory bigger than the Indiana kind of big victory?  What does it mean?

RUSSERT:  They wanted some kind finality.  They wanted one or the other to win both, in order to demonstrate convincingly what was going on.  The interesting thing tonight, and I underscore this, is people are looking at that delegate count, because the higher the elected delegate count gets, the harder and harder it is to deny the person who is in the lead.

If, in fact, there’s evidence tonight in the polls that Senator Obama has cratered, quote unquote, in the word of one super delegate, because of the Wright situation, then, of course, they would say let’s let it play out.  Absent that, there may, in fact, be some discussion to say, among some of these super delegates, is it time to move to a close or should we allow it to play out through the primaries, the first week in June.  I think we’ll know a lot more in a few hours, looking at the margin of victories in each of these states and the awarding of the elected delegates. 

It’s being watched that closely.  These super delegates are really tuned in.  They are analyzing and assessing every turn, every bob, every weave.  They are looking very, very hard tonight, not only at the popular vote, but who is winning the elected delegates.

OLBERMANN:  Watch out, the use of that word margin again.  William Sapphire will write us all up one more time.  Tim Russert, as we wait for Indiana at the top of the hour, we’ll talk to you later, Tim.  Thanks.

At this top of the hour, the first characterization of the race in Indiana.  In just about 33 minutes and a little bit, polls will also close in North Carolina.  The big window of excitement and information and knowledge is coming up in the next 35 minutes.  Please stay with us.  Chris and I rejoin you after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR:  It’s now 7:00 p.m. in the East, 6:00 p.m. in northwest Indiana, where the polls in the Hoosier State have now closed.

And the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is too early to call. 

I’m Chris Matthews, alongside Keith Olbermann. 

And we have some breaking news right now.  Late this afternoon, a circuit court judge in LaPorte County in northwest Indiana ordered two voting precincts to stay open past poll closing time due to—quote—I love this—

“human error.”

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR:  Yes, a poll worker missed a few steps in the process of turning the machine on. 

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS:  A necessary start to the voting day. 

And we’re joined right now by an expert in polling, Terry McAuliffe, the chairman of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. 

Terry, buddy, thank you for coming in. 

(CROSSTALK)

TERRY MCAULIFFE, CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN:  How are you? 

MATTHEWS:  You’re smiling.  You’re happy.  You’re in Indiana.  What’s that tell us? 

MCAULIFFE:  Well, it feels good.  You know, Chris, as you know, we started in this state, we were 15 points down.  They outspent us 2-to-1.  But I have been here.  You can feel the momentum.  Hillary Clinton has worked this state.  She has been all over it, 100 visits to 62 counties.  It’s incredible. 

I think her economic message of working to create jobs in this state, working to deal with the gas prices, all of her issues, health care, I think the voters here in Indiana are going to reward Hillary tonight with a win. 

MATTHEWS:  Can you pick up delegates tonight in a doubleheader tonight? 

MCAULIFFE:  Well, listen, I think we’re going to do very well in North Carolina.  As you know, Chris, we were 25 points down.  It has tightened up considerably.  We were also outspent there. 

What you have seen since Pennsylvania are people looking at the two candidates.  And they’re saying, “You know what?  we have got two great candidates.  But it’s Hillary Clinton, the one who is the best to take us into the fall campaign.” 

All the polls this week, Chris, show that she beats John McCain, she wins Florida, she wins Ohio.  Senator Obama doesn’t.  I think that’s important. 

What the folks want to do, they want to make sure a Democrat wins the White House.  And her economic message is the message that’s working. 

So, sure, we can pick up delegates.  But when we’re done with this process on June 3^rd, Senator Obama will need super-delegates, we will need super-delegates.  And their decision is going to come down to, who is it that is best to take on John McCain in the fall?  Clearly, every polling data this week says that’s Hillary Clinton. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, how do we gauge it tonight, sitting here at our anchor desk?  Do we count the total votes counted tonight in both states and decide who wins in total?  Do we look at the total delegates at stake tonight and see who won?  Give me a scorecard for what we do tonight here by midnight, Terry. 

MCAULIFFE:  Well, I think what you got to look at it, as you look at it—you know, who wins the states and, obviously, but more importantly, who shows the momentum?  This is all about momentum moving in, you know, to get ready for November 4^th.

We were way back, double digits down, Chris, in both states.  You yourself know it.  You yourself talked about it, 25 percent down in North Carolina, 10 percent to 15 percent down in Indiana.

If we show considerable movement on those numbers, you have got to say, “You know what?  Hillary Clinton is the one that is coming out of these primaries tonight with a head of steam.  Her message is working.  People like what they’re hearing about Hillary Clinton.  They like it that she’s fighting for them.”

And I think what’s happened is that they see Hillary Clinton as a fighter.  And you know what?  They say, “You know what?  When she is president of the United States, she is going to fight for me.”

And that’s what you’re hearing out there in the states.  It happened in Texas, happened in Ohio, happened in Pennsylvania.  I feel very comfortable it’s going to happen here in Indiana.  And you’re going to see a huge turnout for Hillary in North Carolina.  And then, Chris, on to West Virginia. 

MATTHEWS:  A couple weeks ago, Barack Obama said that Indiana would be the decider.  It would be sort of the rubber match of this long feud. 

MCAULIFFE:  That’s right. 

MATTHEWS:  Are you going to call him on that tonight if you win Indiana? 

MCAULIFFE:  Sure, I mean, he did say this would be the tiebreaker.  But we will see.  The polls have just closed here.  we will see what happened. 

I have learned, Chris, I pay no attention to the exit data.  It doesn’t matter.  I’m waiting until one of you declare that Hillary has won the state.

But, sure, he did say that this would be the tiebreaker, that Indiana was it.  And we will see what happens.  But, you know, we’re optimistic about what’s going to happen, but, you know, we want to be very cautious until they actually call it. 

But, clearly, the momentum is on Hillary Clinton’s side.  You can feel it.  It has happened now for several weeks.  And as we move forward, they say Hillary Clinton is the one to take us into the general election. 

Chris, winning Ohio, winning Pennsylvania, winning Michigan, winning Florida, these are the four key states that we have got to win this November.  And Hillary Clinton has won those by at least 10 points.  And then winning here in Indiana would be a huge movement for Hillary. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, again, I’m trying to get a score card here tonight. 

Will it be total votes cast...

MCAULIFFE:  Yes.

MATTHEWS:  ... tonight, total delegates won tonight?  And then, when you go from here to the first week in June, can we look at the votes, the elected delegates who are elected between now and the end of the process...

MCAULIFFE:  Yes.

MATTHEWS:  ... and say who’s winning?  Or is it this amorphous term, “momentum,” the one to look at?

MCAULIFFE:  Well, sure, I believe, by the end of this process—as you know, the DNC is going to meet May 31^st, rules and bylaws, to deal with Florida and Michigan.  We have West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, Montana coming up. 

Assuming they resolve the issue on May 31^st, on June 3^rd, after that, I think what you will see is Hillary Clinton clearly ahead in the popular vote, a very close difference on the delegates. 

And at that point, the super-delegates, whom we both need, have to make up their mind:  Who is it that can go into the fall best prepared to help the Democrats win the White House, win Senate seats, win House of Representatives seats?  And that is becoming more and more evident over the last couple of weeks it’s Hillary Clinton. 

We have to win this election.  We have got to put up the strongest candidate.  And if you look at the exit data that you have seen in the past elections, it’s about the economy.  And, clearly, on the economic issues, Hillary Clinton wins overwhelmingly against Senator Obama and Senator McCain, that she will fight hardest on the economy.  And I think that’s a very important barometer going into the fall. 

MATTHEWS:  Where are you sending the former president next, because he’s been working the smaller cities in Pennsylvania and in North Carolina?  Where are you going to send him next, to deploy him to best use? 

MCAULIFFE:  Well, he will be off to West Virginia, but he did nine events yesterday.  I think he’s doing seven today.  he will be coming in here to Indiana later tonight.  He’s finishing up in North Carolina.

But, obviously, the next is West Virginia.  Right now, we enjoy a lead right now in West Virginia.  Then, it’s obviously Kentucky and Oregon.  So onward we go.  We have about five more contests to finish up this process.  It’s exciting for us moving forward. 

And, you know, let’s let everybody vote.  And our point all along, Chris, has been let’s let all the voters vote.  Right now, it has basically been a tie.  You have seen 30 million folks come out and vote.  The difference is less than 1 percent.  We have had about 3,400 delegates chosen.  The difference is about 135. 

We have got a long way to go in this process.  And I will also say this is good for the Democratic Party. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, if you’re happy faced with a scorecard, you would never lose, Terry.  You’re always upbeat.  Thank you very much, Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Clinton campaign.

MCAULIFFE:  Chris, if I’m ever not upbeat, then you’re really going to worry.  Thanks, Chris.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN:  All right.  We’re joined now by Senator John Kerry, former Democratic nominee for president in 2004 and current supporter of Senator Obama here in 2008.

Senator Kerry, good evening. 

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS:  Good evening to you. 

I’m sort of laughing.  I’m listening to Terry McAuliffe.  He is always upbeat.  And he’s better to have spinning for you than against you. 

But I will tell you, he’s dead wrong about what’s happening.  Barack Obama has a 141-delegate lead today.  After tonight, let’s say she does the best she can do and she gained 12 or 15 delegates.  She’s going to have to win over 60 percent of every contest afterwards.  She’s never done that. 

So, just the fact that Rush Limbaugh is urging people in Indiana to go out and vote for Hillary Clinton tells you the whole story.  The Republicans believe Hillary Clinton is the best shot they have got and Barack Obama is—they’re scared of him.  They don’t know how to campaign against him.  And I believe he will be the nominee.

OLBERMANN:  So, you’re not buying that explanation that the support from people like Richard Mellon Scaife and FOX News and Rush Limbaugh is simply, as Senator Clinton told me in an interview about 10 days ago, simply her ability to bridge gaps and bring people together? 

KERRY:  No, I’m not buying that, and I’m not buying Terry McAuliffe’s wonderful argument tonight. 

You know, look, the fact is that Barack Obama has won 31 states, caucuses and primaries to her 15.  The voters who are deciding between Barack and Hillary, you know, are deciding between two good candidates. 

But once that decision has been made and we have a nominee, those voters are not going to rush over and pick somebody who’s going to give them four more years of George Bush’s policies in Iraq, who’s going to give them more of the economic policies that’s brought them pain, who doesn’t have a health care plan, who’s for the Bush tax cut.  I mean, let’s run the list. 

So Barack Obama is going to win Ohio and Pennsylvania and these other states.  And I hope he’s going to do it with Hillary Clinton’s support.

OLBERMANN:  So how does and when does this get resolved? 

KERRY:  I think it’s going to be resolved in the next weeks, certainly by the early part of June.  You may have to run through, depending on what happens tonight, you have to run through these next primaries. 

But there’s nothing wrong with that.  I think it’s great.  You know, let’s go out to Oregon, and Montana, and Puerto Rico, and South Dakota, and so forth.  Give them a chance.  Let everybody be active.  The Democratic Party will be stronger for it. 

And I believe then the super-delegates will see that Barack Obama is ahead in the pledged delegates, that he has won more states and primaries and caucuses.  And in the end, they’re going to decide he’s the strongest candidate for a number of different reasons, and I believe the nomination will be decided. 

MATTHEWS:  Let me ask you, Senator Kerry—this is a very tricky question, but it goes to the heart of what you do.  You’re in the cloakroom with Senator Clinton.  Is she the beer—the shot-and-beer-swiggin’, droppin’ g’s, regular gal from the bowling league?  Or is she a Seven Sisters girl?  What is she?

I would like to know who she really is, the woman with all the degrees, or is she this person who got the GED from somewhere in Scranton?  Who is she?

KERRY:  Chris, that’s not where I want to focus.  And that’s not—you know, that’s not what this is about.  Hillary...

MATTHEWS:  But it seems to be about portraying yourself as the regular Joe or Jane.  And that was about your campaign.  You were hit with that, for being elitist.  And I just want to—is it all going to be a masquerade now, to show how... KERRY:  No. 

MATTHEWS:  ... how regular you can make yourself in public? 

KERRY:  No, I think what people want to see is authenticity.  And I think, on the gas issue, for instance, people see a gimmick versus somebody who has a real vision and a presidential position, which is to say no to something that doesn’t make sense and isn’t good policy. 

That’s what they want.  People want to turn the page of American politics, Chris.  They want something new.  They want to move to the future.  And, again, you know, the fact that Rush Limbaugh is urging people to go out and vote for Hillary Clinton just tells you the whole story here. 

I think, in the end, Barack, as people get to know him better, will feel the authenticity that has won him the support of governors in red states, senators in red states, voters in a patchwork of red states across the country, which is why he has won 31 primaries and caucuses to her 15.  That’s the making of a new coalition in American politics. 

And what we’re trying to do here, Chris, is not just elect a president and have a transitional shift to another president.  We want a transformation in American politics. 

And that only comes when you can inspire a kind of grassroots movement that comes together across party lines and holds this city, Washington, D. C. , accountable. 

This city is out of control.  Our politics are broken.  Barack Obama can help to fix it, and I think he’s showing the coalition that can do that. 

OLBERMANN:  Senator Kerry, his voice echoing through the halls of the Capitol tonight.  Thank you again, sir.

(LAUGHTER)

KERRY:  Sorry about that. 

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN:  No problem at all. 

All right, let’s turn over to NBC News Washington bureau chief, moderator of “Meet the Press,” Tim Russert, as we have Indiana too close to call. 

Something that Terry McAuliffe mentioned—too early to call—forgive me. 

Something that was presented by Terry McAuliffe, that this—if it’s a Clinton victory in Indiana, that it’s something of a rally, a comeback from way down, the RealClearPolitics poll of polls had Obama ahead in Indiana for a total of three days.  Would—an Indiana victory would be an Indiana victory.  But would it be a comeback momentum kind of a victory, or just a victory-victory? 

TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF:  Well, what the Clinton campaign is pointing to, Keith, was that magical sheet that I have been using every primary night that the Obama campaign produced in February, they did predict a five-point victory in Indiana back in February, because it’s a neighboring state, a bordering state to Illinois. 

But, in recent weeks, obviously, the polls have tightened dramatically.  And Senator Clinton has pulled ahead in most of the public polls.  We’re getting our first look tonight, now, because the polls have closed, at some of the exit data.  And I know Norah will get to a lot more of it. 

But I went right away to the two core bases of each of these candidates.  And it’s not surprising.  White women, Hillary Clinton is winning 61 to 39.  Blacks, Barack Obama is winning 92 to 8, which is really extraordinary in both accounts because those are the people, those are the groups that are going to have to come together to unite this party. 

And I can’t underscore enough there’s equal concern amongst Obama supporters about getting white women.  But there will be increased concern amongst Clinton supporters that they need African-Americans.  And the more this campaign goes on, and is seen as a divide along racial lines, the more difficult it will be to unite the Democratic Party. 

OLBERMANN:  To some degree, are the Indiana numbers going to be on that front a little exaggerated because of the crossover voting and the heavy concentration—relatively heavy—it was not 10 percent even, certainly—but the large number of Republicans who are going in there and clearly voting for either one of the candidates just to mess with the outcome and are going to vote for McCain in November one way or the other? 

Is that number going to be a little larger in Indiana than we would expect it to be in terms of the actual race of who’s going to support who? 

RUSSERT:  Yes, there are indications of the mischief factor, the chaos factor, that we’re seeing more of that now.

I assume the Clinton campaign will say, well, no, that means that her new message, her recast message is appealing and drawing in Republicans. 

And we will let the debate continue. 

But the interesting thing for me here is how the white women have been such a hard-core base for Hillary Clinton.  And I think that would exist whether she was running in the finals against Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, anybody, including Barack Obama. 

There are just women, particularly those over 50, making under $50,000, who believe that Hillary Clinton can shatter that glass ceiling.  The interesting thing is the development of African-Americans and evolution towards Barack Obama. 

Remember the debate at the end of last year, is he black enough?  And there were a lot of predictions that the Clintons, because they had strong ties in the African-American community, would always be able get 30 percent of the African-American community.  No more -- 92 to 8, that’s really extraordinary to see that kind of voting pattern this late into a primary.  And I think it underscores just divided we are within Obama vs. Clinton. 

OLBERMANN:  All right, finally and briefly, Tim, we talked about this two weeks ago while covering Pennsylvania.  Has there been any movement towards this? 

If there’s going to be an olive branch from one direction to the other, to white women or to African-American voters, are there surrogates to put on the ticket if it’s presidential candidate Obama and some white female candidate for vice president?  Is there a surrogate Obama to put on a Clinton campaign? 

RUSSERT:  Difficult.  And whenever I try to raise that question, it’s, we’re not going there.  It’s a long way away.  We’re going to see this race through. 

There are some suggestions yesterday, another attempt to say, should we put the two of these candidates together on a ticket?  But what I keep hearing, Keith, from people who are close to both these individuals is that, the longer this goes on, the more difficult it becomes, because attitudes are hardening. 

There was a quote from a Clinton supporter today to “TIME” magazine that, well, we can’t nominate Obama because there could be another October surprise, and you wouldn’t get that from Hillary.

Those are the kinds of things that very destructive to party unity.  And both campaigns are willing to acknowledge and talk about that.  This is again all part of the psychology that superdelegates are looking at tonight.  What is the story that’s going to be left with the undeclared superdelegates tonight? 

Is Obama weaker by the Jeremiah Wright thing or is he in a position that’s even more than weak?  Or is Hillary Clinton in a position where, realistically, she is in a position to claim a nomination eventually?  And that’s what they are going to be listening to.  These kind of numbers indicate no dramatic change from previous primaries.  I think that will also be noted by the undeclared superdelegates. 

OLBERMANN:  Yes. 

MATTHEWS:  Tim, I have just come across—I love numbers.  I have just found one that delights me. 

Indiana, where Hillary Clinton—it’s too early to call, according to NBC right now, but assuming that she could even win there, look at this number of people under 65.  Barack wins.  He wins narrowly, but he carries people below 65 even in a state he may lose tonight.  Who knows. 

But among people 65 and older, Tim, Hillary Clinton is winning 71 to 29.  She is sweeping the people on Social Security.  This is even more dramatic than her support among white women, is older people.  In the other state, the same thing.  Her vote, her majority, if it ever comes, is all among retirees.  That seems to me something about the changing direction of the Democratic Party. 

RUSSERT:  Certainly generational.

And I will add to that, Chris.  We asked about Reverend Wright and nearly half the voters in both Indiana and North Carolina said that he was a significant factor in their vote.  Now, we don’t know whether that means the things he said concerned them or they appreciated the way Barack Obama dealt with the issue. 

MATTHEWS:  Right. 

RUSSERT:  There can be pros and cons in that. 

But voters over 65 who singled out the Wright episode broke dramatically for Hillary Clinton.  So, there’s an awful lot at stake here in terms of gender, in terms of race, in terms of behavior, attitudes.  You’re absolutely right. 

(CROSSTALK)

RUSSERT:  The longer the campaign goes on, the more hardened those attitudes get, according to both campaigns. 

They are convinced and they will say publicly, we can come together again, but both candidates will acknowledge you can’t wave a magic wand.  They can hold each other’s hands on the podium, but that doesn’t mean their followers are going to come along. 

OLBERMANN:  Tim Russert, we will check with you within the rest of the hour here for you.  Thank you kindly.

Still ahead, our “RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE” panel, plus more of the exit polls, Norah O’Donnell.  We await results in Indiana, still too early to call, and, at the bottom of this hour, results from North Carolina.  The polls close in 11 minutes and 35 seconds.

You’re watching MSNBC’s coverage of the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN:  Indiana too early to call, North Carolina coming up, we presume at the bottom of the hour, when the polls close there.

We continue with MSNBC’s continuing coverage of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. 

The polls having closed in Indiana, with the exception of two counties where there were some mechanical problems due to human error.  The race, as we said, is too early to call.  And, in North Carolina, polls closing now in a little less than seven minutes. 

MATTHEWS:  Right now, we want to turn it back over to David Gregory of NBC News and his “RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE” panel—David.

DAVID GREGORY, HOST, “RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE”:  Thanks, gentlemen.

Like you guys, we are talking about election night by the numbers. 

And, Gene, let me start with you.  This is the expectation time for not only who wins, but by how much.

EUGENE ROBINSON, ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITOR, “THE WASHINGTON POST”: 

Right. 

GREGORY:  Where does the spread matter tonight and for whom? 

ROBINSON:  Well, the spread, I think, matters in Indiana.  If Hillary Clinton could pull off a double-digit win in Indiana, for example, she could—she would have more to stand on to claim that she had somehow changed the game or that she had really made her case. 

GREGORY:  Or reinforcing support, as Chris talked about, among older voters, among white working-class voters. 

ROBINSON:  Right. 

GREGORY:  Denying him entry in that key group that he needs to repair.

ROBINSON:  Right. 

Of course, the flip side is, how does she do with African-American voters?  And if he swamps her there, then we’re back where we were before we got to Indiana or North Carolina. 

GREGORY:  All right, but, Pat, in North Carolina, the dynamic here is like Pennsylvania was for Hillary Clinton.  He needs a big victory.  He was up in the polls significantly.  If it’s less than single digits, a problem. If he meets those expectations, it’s a big win for him after Reverend Wright. 

PAT BUCHANAN, NBC POLITICAL ANALYST:  In both states, there’s two issues.  Who won the state and who won the campaign? 

Barack Obama was up seven in Indiana when we last met at Pennsylvania.  He was up seven.  He could lose by double digits, which means he probably lost up to 20 points in two weeks.  He was up 20 in North Carolina.  If he holds North Carolina, the question is going to be, how much did he lose?  That’s what the professionals are going to look at.  How did he do campaigning for two weeks in these crucial states?

GREGORY:  Right. 

BUCHANAN:  Did he gain or did he lose votes?

GREGORY:  But, Rachel, take on this quickly.  If, in North Carolina, he gets more votes, more popular votes than Hillary did in Pennsylvania, he is going to have something to crow about. 

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST:  Well, yes, if he were the one who was talking about the popular vote as a relevant metric.

GREGORY:  Right. 

MADDOW:  Unfortunately, that’s all been coming from the Clinton campaign, so it might look a little bit disingenuous for him to first start bragging about that now, once he’s sealed that up.

I think the real wild card today is Republicans and independents.  Independents can vote in both of these states.  Republicans can vote in Indiana.  We’re getting reports from both states, from reporters in both places, that says that that crossover turnout is very, very high.  Nobody knows how much of it is on-purpose mischief-making or Operation Chaos kind of stuff. 

(CROSSTALK)

MADDOW:  That may be very important.

BUCHANAN:  Obama’s bragging rights early on from Iowa, all these other places, was all these Republicans coming up, whispering in his ear.  He was getting the Republicans and the independents.  Hillary Clinton was divisive.  She couldn’t win.

If he’s beginning to lose them, he’s beginning to lose one of the biggest arguments he had:  I’m a crossover candidate. 

(CROSSTALK)

MADDOW:  I think that’s absolutely right.

(CROSSTALK)

GREGORY:  Let me introduce—let me introduce this idea, the psychology of the superdelegates—Tim Russert talking about that a little earlier tonight.

Party unity is going to be a big factor.  Some of the exit polling that is coming out that is being reported on, nearly six in 10 Obama supporters in Indiana say they would dissatisfied if Clinton were the nominee.  And listen to this.  Clinton voters who say they would choose McCain over Obama in a general election is approaching 40 percent in Indiana.