Politics '08 — A war of attrition

Chuck Todd Chief White House correspondent and political director • Profile

WASHINGTON - One of the more bizarre games I played as a kid was something called "kill the man."

It was a cross between football and rugby, which found the person carrying the ball a target of some hungry tacklers.

I still don't know why we enjoyed the game because it was impossible to win.

Still, we were oddly drawn to it. Maybe, secretly, we all believed we were either tough enough to handle the tacklers or quick enough to evade them.

Of course, no one ever "won" this game, you merely survived — and surviving was rewarded.

Welcome to the 2008 political version of "kill the man."

In a campaign that has been chock-full of trend spotting, there's something we haven't focused enough on: the inability of a frontrunner to survive the media and opposition scrutiny that comes with being in first place — at least long enough to succeed.

Sen. John McCain was knocked down from his frontrunner perch early on, and never really regained that status, managing somehow to win the Republican nomination as an underdog candidate.

Remember, he was constantly asked about immigration, Iraq and his supposed flip-flops from '00, creating the near-fatal spiral that he was in last summer.

Media distraction?
Interestingly, since he won the nomination, the media has been so distracted by the Democratic contest that it's yet to cover McCain like a frontrunner, allowing him time to get his campaign house in order.

Considering the baggage McCain's party has saddled him with, it's remarkable that he's polling as well as he is. Then again, what will happen with the media pack returns full throttle?

Sen. Hillary Clinton was given the frontrunner treatment for all of '07 through February's Super Tuesday.

Eventually, she was worn down tremendously—just three weeks ago, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll recorded her worst personal rating since we started tracking her.

But as the spotlight has moved away from her, she's seen her standing improve.

She's getting underdog coverage, which always seems to focus on the good and overlook the potentially troublesome.

Video Are Bush and McCain the same? May 1: MSNBC’s David Shuster takes a look at the similarities between Sen. John McCain and President Bush. Hardball

One recent example?

In a ABC News interview, the former first lady said if she were president, the United States could "obliterate" Iran.

During her frontrunner scrutiny days, this would/could have been one of those bad stories that would have shadowed her for days and tossed her off message.

But because she made the comments as the unlikely nominee, it got scant attention.

And that takes us to Sen. Barack Obama, who after months of riding under the media scrutiny radar, is now experiencing what McCain and Clinton went through months ago.

Every word and relationship are now being examined with a fine-tooth comb and it’s all happening in a very short window of time.

The problem for Obama, unlike McCain and Clinton, is that he doesn't have a long history to fall back on with the public.

Political forgiveness
It's odd, but the longer someone's been around, the more likely they may find forgiveness from a new scandal. Obama's an unknown, so impressions are still being formed and that's what makes his situation that much more precarious.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

Clinton even uses this as an argument in her favor.

She claims her baggage has been around long enough, insisting that there's nothing that new.

(She better hope that's the case, considering the recent questions surrounding her husband's huge post-White House income and some of his business connections).

But, regardless of that specific issue, she’s right — it's going to be hard for her to become any more or less polarizing than she already is no matter how much new information surfaces.

This was a problem for her six months ago, now it's an asset.

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