Why it's an uphill climb for House GOP

Meanwhile in Macon, Ga., three-term Democrat Rep. Jim Marshall who represents a district Bush won with 56 percent in 2004, has nearly three times as much cash on hand as his Republican challenger, retired Air Force Gen. Rick Goddard.

But Republicans say this will be a competitive race. After all, Marshall barely held on to his seat even during the 2006 Democratic wave.

Marshall spoke well of Bush's Iraq policy in January 2007 when almost no Democrats would do so.

According to a Congressional Quarterly analysis, Marshall voted in alignment with Bush 37 percent of the time on key votes last year, making him the House Democrat most in accord with the president, which tells you something about this district.

Of course, Democratic performance in House races on Nov. 4 hinges partly on their presidential candidate and whether that person acts as a dead weight on Democratic candidates in Republican-leaning districts such as Marshall’s.

Democrats have money advantage
Most conditions look exceedingly good for Democrats at this point. For instance, by the end of last year, Democratic House candidates had raised more than $200 million, while GOP candidates had raised $57 million less.

The high point for House Democrats in recent decades came during President Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 landslide when the voters rejected Republican Barry Goldwater, who took a lot of Republicans down with him.

House Republicans lost 37 seats in that debacle, giving Democrats a total of 295 seats in the new Congress.

It's unlikely that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hit that mark on the night of Nov. 4.

Goldwater was from Arizona as is John McCain, but McCain is no Barry Goldwater.

One of the crucial questions for the fall campaign will be whether McCain's "green" stances on issues like global warming will lift GOP House candidates in environmentally-minded states such as New Hampshire and Minnesota.

“The key number to watch is 192. From the late 1950s to 1994, the GOP could never win more than 192 seats in the House,” said John Pitney, professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, Calif.

“This ‘glass ceiling’ led to the perception that the House GOP was a permanent minority. If Republicans come out of the 2008 election with more than 192 seats, they will have an outside chance of regaining the majority in 2010,” he said.

“But if they fall below this level, they will be in danger. They might not be a permanent minority, but majority status will be a distant prospect.”

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