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NBC/WSJ Poll: Bush a liability for McCain


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According to the survey, some voters also feel that McCain better reflects their values than the Democratic candidates.

Fifty-four percent of respondents in the survey said that they identify with McCain’s background and his set of values, compared with 35 percent who didn't feel that connection.

“What is driving [McCain’s] image … is values,” says Hart, the Democratic pollster. “It is faith, honor, country, patriotism.”

By contrast, Obama (45 vs. 46 percent) and Clinton (46 vs. 46 percent) received split scores on this question. Obama’s score, in fact, is a significant drop from last month, when 50 percent of voters said they identified with his background and values, versus 39 percent who said they didn’t.

This decline seems to suggest that the controversies over his former pastor and his “bitter” remark have taken a toll on the Illinois senator.

The poll — taken by 1,006 registered voters, with an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points — was conducted from April 25-28. This was when Wright resurfaced in the news, but before Obama publicly denounced him.

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Indeed, on this background/values question, Obama’s score fell among small-town/rural voters (from 46-43 percent to 31-61 percent), suburban voters (56-32 percent to 49-40 percent) and those 65 and older (52-37 percent to 36-47 percent).

Still, Obama leads Clinton among Democrats by three points in the poll, 46-43 percent, although that’s within the margin of error on this question. In the last NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the two were both tied at 45 percent each.

But it’s clear that the ongoing Democratic battle has had an effect on the candidates. Nearly four-in-10 Obama voters said that they didn’t identify with Clinton’s background and values, while almost five-in-10 Clinton voters say the same about Obama.

“The longer this contest is going on … the more they are beginning to dislike their opponent,” Newhouse said. “What you see here is a polarization within the Democratic Party.”

As Hart puts it, “You look at this survey and it’s almost like two portraits in one — it shows the broad dynamics remain unchanged and present a pretty steep path for the Republicans."

Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News.

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