By Brad Telias

updated 4:59 p.m. ET April 23, 2008

You knew when the always ebullient trainer Nick Zito was less than ecstatic that War Pass finished second in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct two weeks ago, something was up with his Kentucky Derby hopeful.

When the two-time Derby winning trainer said he was shipping War Pass to Louisville but wanted to “wait and see” how the horse was doing in a month, there was a good chance last year’s 2-year-old champion wasn’t going to make it to the starting gate on May 3.

Those signals proved correct. Zito announced Saturday morning a slight fracture in War Pass’s left front leg—probably suffered in the tiring stretch run in the Wood—would keep him out of the Derby.

The veterinarians don’t think last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ needs surgery, so with some rest he should be back later this season. Perhaps the forced recuperative period and skipping the Derby are good things for War Pass. It was becoming quite apparent that a mile-and-a-quarter was not his cup of tea.

In the meantime, though, the Derby’s complexion takes an interesting turn, as analysts focus on the probable morning-line favorite, Big Brown, and assess whether, unchallenged, he can take control of the early lead at Churchill Downs.

With the front-running War Pass on the sidelines, other rivals will have to enforce the pace to prevent the undefeated Big Brown from setting his own quick but comfortable fractions as he’s done in each of his three career races.

It may be up to Santa Anita Derby runner-up Bob Black Jack and Arkansas Derby winner Gayego to keep Big Brown honest and prevent him from running unchallenged on the lead while holding something in reserve for the stretch drive, similar to the way War Emblem ran gate to wire in 2002.

Two others could conceivably stay with Big Brown as well—Recapturetheglory, who led every step of the way in taking the Illinois Derby, and Blue Grass runner-up Cowboy Cal, a front runner who’s known to cause a hotly-contested pace. Cowboy Cal is more intriguing in that role.

Cowboy Cal’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, who has yet to win a Derby winner in 19 tries, now has a possible third Derby starter after Behindathtebar’s victory in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes.

But Blue Grass Stakes champ Monba is considered to be Pletcher’s top contender off a solid effort in Keeneland on April 12. Monba enjoys stalking the leaders or running from behind, and no doubt would benefit from Cowboy Cal softening up Big Brown on the lead.

With only two prep races so far this season, Big Brown hopes to become the third horse in the last 60 years—Sunny’s Halo did it in 1983 and Street Sense last year—to have won the Derby with so few. Big Brown, however, will have two-time Derby-winning jockey Kent Desormeaux aboard, and that might make up for the colt’s lack of experience.

But the veteran rider’s ability to get Big Brown out of the gate quickly, avoid trouble and then prevent him from being caught in a sped duel, could be the telling tale of this year’s Derby.

Yet there’s another consideration with the freaky and talented bay colt that may be more revealing: foot problems—often the bane of a good horse determined to become a better one—have plagued Big Brown since winning his first race at Saratoga last summer as a 2-year old.

Sore front hooves, first his left and then his right, kept him away from racing until his return this winter at Gulfstream Park in Florida, where he appeared to overcome the problem thanks partly to special glue-on shoes that have a thick polyurethane cover to prevent anything hard hitting his feet.

A smashing 12 ¾-length romp in a March allowance race showed trainer Richard Dutrow, Jr. that the shoes worked. And after another seemingly effortless 5-length winning performance in the Florida Derby three weeks later, it was on to “The Show.”

But foot problems have previously been the compromiser of two leading contenders’ quests for the rose.

Unbridled Song’s troubled quarter cracks (split hoof nails) contributed to a fifth-place finish for the 1996 Derby favorite. And Empire Maker’s bruised hoof forced trainer Bobby Frankel to change training plans in the several weeks leading up to the Derby and probably resulted in the 2003 favorite running second to Funny Cide.

It’ll be interesting to see how Big Brown handles the Churchill Downs surface, which is harder than those at Gulfstream Park and the Palm Meadows training track in Boynton Beach, Florida, where he’s currently being conditioned.

Dutrow recently altered Big Brown’s schedule, leaving him only a three-eighths of a mile workout the Thursday before the Derby. That will be the colt’s only run over the Churchill Downs strip before the big race on May 3.

There’ll be many an eye watching that one to see how the big bay comes out of it.

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