Pennsylvania's affluent exurban battleground

Democrats have reason to be optimistic about Chester County in November.

Since the beginning of the year, the Democrats have scored a gain of 18,010 Chester County voters registering as members of their party. Republicans have gained only 2,584.

The Republicans still have a lead in total numbers in Chester County with nearly 147,000 registered voters, to the Democrats' 113,000 and 46,000 independents and other party members.

Republicans still strong in exurbia?
State Sen. Andrew Dinniman, a Democrat who represents a large chunk of the county and who is neutral in the Obama-Clinton clash, said, “This will be a very interesting county in this election. This is the most prosperous county in Pennsylvania; it’s also one of the fastest growing. Unlike other areas of Pennsylvania, we continue to be prosperous; even in this housing market, the value of houses here is increasing.”

The county has an array of pharmaceutical firms — including Glaxo Smith Kline and Wyeth Cephalon — among its major employers.

“This is going to be very close here. I give the odds to Obama. Hillary’s appeals are based on the economy. Obama talks some about the economy, but he also talks about positive change and responsibility,” Dinniman said.

“If people are hurting, the Clinton message has a real resonance,” he said. But in this bastion of affluence Clinton’s New Deal-type message has less pull. “Obama appeals to people whose education levels and incomes are higher” and who are not sweating over where their next paycheck comes from.

GOP track record of success
Bush won Chester County in 2004 with 52 percent, and a margin of 10,000 votes.

Video Todd analyzes key Pa. primary April 21: NBC political director Chuck Todd talks with TODAY's Meredith Vieira about the Pennsylvania primary, which could be key in deciding the Democrats’ presidential candidate. Today show

In 2006, Rep. Jim Gerlach, the three-term House Republican, carried his portion of Chester County with 55 percent in what was otherwise a disastrous election for Pennsylvania Republicans. (Gerlach's congressional district includes parts of four different counties.)

Gerlach’s Democratic opponent, Lois Murphy, from the more liberal Montgomery County, lost in 2006 in part because she “couldn’t speak the language of Chester County,” said Dinniman. The language requires an emphasis on entrepreneurship and reliance on the local community rather than instinctively looking to Washington, D.C. for solutions.

Has either Clinton or Obama mastered the Chester County language?

“I think Obama has mastered it better,” said Dinniman.

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