On Dalai's heels, another key lama to visit U.S.

‘A stunning setback’
“It was a stunning setback for China’s Tibet policy,” said Barnett. “Nobody had any idea that he had any controversial views at all. People outside thought he had been reconditioned to support the Chinese view. … It had a huge impact on ordinary people inside Tibet.”

By fleeing, the Karmapa gained credibility among Tibetans beyound his stature as head of Kagyu sect. Since then, he has emerged not only as a scholar of Tibetan religion and culture, but as an energetic and charismatic young man.

“Because he escaped from Tibet, and he’s a strong personality … particularly among the young Tibetans there are some who would like to see him play a bigger role,” said Thierry Dodin of TibetInfoNet, a nonprofit news service.

In a move that was even more surprising in historical terms, the Karmapa and the Dalai Lama forged an alliance that raised the possibility of a peaceful transfer of political power between different schools of Tibetan Buddhism — unheard of in Tibetan history.

The Dalai Lama’s school of Buddhism, the Gelug, has held political power for hundreds of years, while the Karmapa’s Kagyu school held sway in earlier centuries. China has benefited from this and other Tibetan rivalries by playing them off against one another, or just capitalizing on the disarray.

“The Dalai Lama made it very clear that he regarded this teenager as a leader,” said Barnett. “And the Karmapa made it clear he fully supported the Dalai Lama. … We saw these two great religious figures signaling very clearly that they were not going to allow sectarian differences come between them.”

For the first time, he said, “It was possible to imagine a succession that would allow leadership to pass from one school to another, without warfare as happened in the past.”

The Karmapa’s succession to the Dalai Lama remains a stretch, to be sure. Tibetans tend to unify when tensions with China are running high — which has consolidated political power in the hands of the Dalai Lama since the crushing of the 1959 uprising in Tibet. But that relative unity could still disintegrate under old rivalries that remain just under the surface.

Dueling Karmapas
Ugyen Trinley Dorje, while endorsed by the Dalai Lama and widely accepted among Tibetans as the true reincarnation of the Karmapa — also faces a challenge from an alternate Karmapa, who has a bigger following overseas. The backers of the latter — 25-year-old Trinley Thaye Dorje —argue that the Dalai Lama has no authority in this dispute and contend that Ugyen Trinley Dorje may be a Chinese agent.

Ultimately, it is this Karmapa’s connection with Beijing government and the support of the Dalai Lama that gives some hope that he could help bargain for a better deal for Tibetans. Since Chinese forces invaded Tibet in 1951 — in communist terms to “liberate” Tibet from its feudal past — Tibetans have struggled to maintain their distinct culture and religion. In the turbulence of communist campaigns, thousands of Tibetan temples were razed and believers were persecuted, jailed, and killed. In recent decades, Beijing has encouraged economic development in Tibet — a process that has also flooded the region with ethnic Han Chinese, and brought resentment to a boil. The recent rioting in Tibet was the biggest challenge to Chinese domination in decades.

AP The Karmapa, front, attends a prayer session with the Dalai Lama at the Tsuglakhang temple in Dharmsala, India, on April 6, 2008.

Beijing has never openly assailed the Karmapa, despite his flight to India and his close relationship with the Dalai Lama, who the Chinese government vilifies at every turn. Instead, Chinese officials have publicly minimized the incident by portraying his departure as a study mission, from which he will eventually return. Nor has the Chinese government sought to replace him as Karmapa.

“I think the Chinese government would be very keen on the Karmapa coming back,” said Dodin of TibetInfoNet. “That would wash all the shame, loss of face from his departure. … I can’t believe he would want to unless given something very substantial … some significant political change. Not just for a golden cage.”

A deft diplomat
The Karmapa has proven a deft diplomat, aware of the delicate position he holds. Observers say he is well-spoken and willful, but chooses his words extremely carefully. That has so far ensured that there is a channel for communicating with Beijing if the right opportunity comes along. He is not expected to make unscheduled public appearances or issue political statements while on his maiden voyage to the United States.

All parties to the conflict are keeping their intentions ambiguous for the moment. Though the Indian government approved the Karmapa’s travel, it declined to comment on the reason for its policy change. The Chinese Embassy in Washington took a request for comment on the Karmapa’s visit to the United States, but did not follow up or respond to subsequent calls.

Representatives of the Karmapa, contacted in Dharamsala, declined to add anything to the information already available on a Web site, which says the Karmapa will be bearing “a very positive and hopeful spiritual message for these turbulent times” during his U.S. visit.

A videotaped statement by the Karmapa about his aspirations for the trip offers little more: “The United States is one of the world’s most powerful countries,” he says through a translator. “... By connecting with a powerful country such as the United States, I aspire that my own ability to bring peace the world in this new century will be enhanced. I’m confident that this visit will provide strong conditions for all sentient beings achieve outer and inner happiness.”

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