Science confirms 'The Colbert Bump'

Self selection
So why the difference between the two parties?

The first place many look is the show's audience, which has a perceived liberal leaning (though Fowler says there's no specific evidence of that). Fowler says this reason is plausible, but that the viewership of the "Report" is small, with a Nielsen average viewership of just 1.3 million for 2007. "I think it's incredibly unlikely that any of Colbert's viewers watch the show and then, you know, get out their checkbook," Fowler told LiveScience.

Fowler also rules out any agenda on the part of the show, since their main aim is to be funny. "They're just trying to get a laugh," he said. "Comedy first, news second."

More likely, Fowler says, is that the candidates are self-selecting their appearances on the show based on how they're doing beforehand.

"Republicans who agree to go on the show have to be doing much, much better than average in order to appear on the show," Fowler said his results showed. "So what this looks like is that Republicans have to be in an extremely confident position before they're willing to take a chance in being made fun of, whereas Democrats are just the opposite."

Democrats who agree to appear on the show are actually doing worse than the average candidate, "so Colbert seems more like an opportunity than a risk of destroying the campaign," Fowler added.

Ripple effect
Just how the show can have an effect with such a comparatively small audience, Fowler attributes to a ripple effect through the mainstream media. "When someone goes on his show, the fact that someone went on his show becomes news," Fowler said. "And a single appearance turns into an incident that's reported to 30 [million], 50 million people."

"His show is very influential among people who influence others," he added.

This could explain Mike Huckabee's upsurge in popularity after his "Colbert" appearance (which Colbert touted by saying he increased Huckabee's polling percentage by 300 percent – from 1 to 3 percent.) "The whole struggle in presidential primaries is just getting your name on people's minds," Fowler said, so Huckabee's appearance probably wouldn't have increased campaign donations (given the apparent Republican bust), but could've bumped him from a fifth to a second-place finish in a primary.

So what about Hillary? Whether or not Clinton's appearance on the show last night will boost her flagging popularity remains to be seen, but Fowler did notice that she made the announcement about her appearance the day after an editorial he wrote about his research appeared in The Los Angeles Times.

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