'Meet the Press' transcript for April 13, 2008

MR. CARVILLE:  But...

MR. SHRUM:  Mary, did you see all of the soldiers who were interviewed from that piece last week, and they all said they were for Obama and they wanted to get the war--out of the war as quickly as possible?

MR. MURPHY:  We're going to, we're going to, we're going to fight this out. The Democrats are going to try to redo the congressional elections.  They talk about managing outcomes.  John McCain is going to talk about fighting for victory.  And the country's going to decide.  Let's see what happens.  I don't agree that we're going to have--be...

MR. CARVILLE:  OK, I'll tell you a general election argument, is a d--somebody's going to get up and say, "We got a three and a half--we paying for a $3 1/2 trillion war and $3.50 for a gallon of gas, and something's got to change here and change fast."

MR. SHRUM:  Right.

MR. CARVILLE:  And, and, and our, our military is overstretched.  And what Colin Powell said, I think a lot of people agree with.  We got to figure out a way to start getting people out of there and rebuilding our own forces at a point.  And I think they agree with that.

MR. SHRUM:  McCain's...

MR. RUSSERT:  If the voters are concerned, concerned about the economy, and they are, concerned about the war, and they are, and all the issues they say, "We prefer the Democratic Party," on a generic test, they prefer the Democrat over the Republican by 12 points, and then you match McCain-Clinton, McCain-Obama, it's dead even.  In fact, in one poll, Marist College in New York state, a ticket of John McCain and Condoleezza Rice beat Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, no matter who's on top of that ticket.  What's going on?

MR. CARVILLE:  In, in 1992 in June, Bill Clinton was running third to George H.W. Bush and to Ross Perot.  In 2004, in the Gallup poll in March, that Kerry was running like, I think, 14 points ahead of Bush, something like that. It was huge.

MR. SHRUM:  It wasn't 14, but you know how to hurt a guy, James.

MR. CARVILLE:  OK, all right.  And you know what?  It may be a very close general election.  I don't take anything for granted, but I do think when people are confronted with the choice, and, and, and the Democratic slogan is going to be, on McCain, "If you like the last eight, you're going to love the next four."

MR. MURPHY:  But the signals fit...

MR. CARVILLE:  And that is going to be, that's going to be the--it fits completely, look at his economic plan.

MR. MURPHY:  This is the--if that's the Democratic frame of the race, and I actually with James...

MR. CARVILLE:  It's a Democratic thing, yeah.

MR. MURPHY:  ...about, about the, the polls being that--not that reliable.  I believe polls after the two convention speeches in a general election, just like I always say about the primary, after the first contest.  But the Democrats want to say "Bush third term," that's their whole campaign.  You're going to hear it a million times.  The question is, is that really McCain? And as somebody who was there in the epic battle between McCain and Bush for control of the Republican Party, I can guarantee you, for all the great things about President Bush, McCain is his own guy, he is totally different, he's different on a lot of important issues, which is why he's special and he's holding up in the polling data now in a time of horrible Republican environment.  And it's why he's so formidable.  They're going to run the most liberal guy they've had since McGovern if it's Obama.

MR. SHRUM:  Oh...

MS. MATALIN:  Yeah.

MR. MURPHY:  That is true.  Ask the National Journal.

MR. SHRUM:  Labels, labels, labels.  You know, the National Journal...

MR. MURPHY:  Ask the National Journal.  Oh, yeah, that's a right wing magazine, Bob?  You're right...

MR. SHRUM:  If you don't show, if you don't show up...

MS. MATALIN:  Bob.

MR. SHRUM:  If you don't show up, the only votes they count are the votes that are close.  You show up only for those.

MR. MURPHY:  McCain has the credibility on political reform...

MR. SHRUM:  Can we, can we finish this?

MR. MURPHY:  ...on, on, on climate issues and on the war that is different than any other Republicans.  It makes him a great general election candidate, and it's why he's doing well.

MR. SHRUM:  Look, the, this is, McCain...

MR. MURPHY:  And I think, remarkably, he's going to prevail.

MR. SHRUM:  Can I be...

MR. RUSSERT:  Have Republicans lucked out with McCain?

MR. MURPHY:  Yeah, there's tremendous luck involved.  I'll admit it.  It's the truth.

MR. SHRUM:  Yeah, yeah.

MR. MURPHY:  You know, they're--the--I kind of want--I'd love to be in the bar with a couple of these superdelegates now on the Democratic side who are thinking, you know, old political pros saying, you know, "On one hand, we got, we got either blow up the world and nominate a candidate who, unfortunately, half the country think flies around on a broom, or we got this guy who's channeling Dukakis.  We've got these--in a great year, we've got two candidates in a general election who are trouble.  How did this happen to us?"

MR. SHRUM:  I think the characterizations, characterizations of both Democrats are wrong, but I want to stay on McCain for a minute, be analytical.

MR. MURPHY:  Wait and see.

MR. RUSSERT:  Yeah.

MR. SHRUM:  What's happening here is a competition between biography and policy.  John McCain, as biography, is not George Bush, doesn't look like George Bush.  He's a maverick, people think he's different from George Bush. On the great issues before the country--Iraq, Iran, where he said, "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran"--he is very close to George Bush, in fact maybe more extreme.

MR. MURPHY:  No, he isn't.

MR. SHRUM:  And on the economy, this is someone who says the economic problems are psychological, who is obviously incompetent when he talks about the economy, but more than that, doesn't seem to care about it.  Remember that moment in 1992 when Bush looked at his watch in the debate?  When John McCain starts talking about the economy, it's almost like he's looking at his watch all the time.

MR. MURPHY:  Oh, that is such a stretch a Bob.

MR. RUSSERT:  All that, all that being said, while Senator Obama and Senator Clinton are going after each other, John McCain is going to the inner cities, going to Appalachia, going out...

MR. MURPHY:  Right.  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...reaching out to people, positioning himself, defining himself, framing himself.  Is this a problem for the Democrats?

MR. CARVILLE:  Well, first of all, first of all, he's going to, to Iraq and completely confusing everything about it, it's a...

MR. RUSSERT:  But, James, is it a problem for the Democrats that they're still fighting...

MR. CARVILLE:  You know, it is--you know...

MR. RUSSERT:  ...while the Republicans are united?

MR. CARVILLE:  ...to, to, to one extent it is, to another extent, that registration in a, in a, in these primaries have gone way up.  Look, it, you know, but, when people focus on this, in the general election, I am, I am--and once they focus on like, you know, John McCain saying these problems are psychological or saying the economic fundamentals in this country are strong, I think they're going to vote for change.  And I do think that John McCain, if anything, represents really more of the same in foreign policy, economic policy and Iraq policy.

MR. MURPHY:  But see, that's the problem.

MR. CARVILLE:  And that, and that is what--that--he--his Iraq policy's the same as Bush, his economic policy's calling--by the way, he's calling for, for cuts in the corporate tax rates.  You know what corporate profits did in the last seven years?  They soared.  And that...

MR. MURPHY:  Well, the reason McCain gives my Democratic pals here such conniption fits is he is the one Republican who is change.  He's been a reformer his whole career.  He's not the Bush third term, and he's got his own independent credibility, and the country knows it, which is why he's so formidable.

Now, the mistake the McCain folks could make is to run the Republican base campaign that we've proven now, after a couple of midterm elections, doesn't work.  He's got to--McCain has to be McCain, which has some risk to it.  The base won't always like it.  But that's a very...

MR. RUSSERT:  And may stay home.

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