McCain's path to victory

Getting the bounce out of the way isn’t the only reason McCain needs the Democrats’ race to end as soon as possible. It is also because he will run two very different campaigns depending on whom he faces.

He will either be the steady hand in uncertain times vs. Obama, or he'll be the breath of fresh air and openness in a campaign against Clinton.

As someone said to NBC's David Gregory, McCain will take up the space left by the defeated Democrat.

From a message standpoint, those are big differences. It is not easy to advance both, now, at the same time. McCain is trying, but ultimately, being able to refine one line of attack is a must, and that can't happen without a clear opponent.

In addition to message, geographically the battleground will be different depending on who he’s running against.

If Clinton is the foe, McCain will be using a target map that looks very similar to the one George Bush pursued in '00 and '04. The emphasis will be on the Midwest and West, as he may be able to pick off a few blue states like Oregon or Wisconsin.

If Obama is the foe, McCain's geographic emphasis is likely to shift East to the Rust Belt, Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular, and even to the Northeast.

There are credible paths to victory for McCain regardless of his opponent. But the easier path – or the more comfortable one for McCain – appears to be a campaign against Clinton.

First, a Clinton victory in the primary would probably not take place until well into the summer, giving McCain some time to stay competitive on fundraising.

Second, a Clinton primary win would give McCain an opportunity to win over younger voters (whom he connected with in '00) and affluent, white male independents (who have been gravitating slowly to Obama for some time).

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

Third, McCain's campaign sweet spot over the years has been when he’s the "change" candidate. Despite the (R) next to his name, he can run against Hillary's last name and claim the change mantle. It will not be easy, but it will be easier than claiming that mantle against Obama.

So how can he beat Obama?

He will have to do well in the Rust Belt and dominate the economic issue in a way he's never done before. McCain could fix some of his problems connecting on the economy by his choice of a running mate, and there may not be a better "conventional" pick than Mitt Romney.

The former Massachusetts governor could help the ticket immediately in the two blue states of Michigan and New Hampshire. And he could potentially offset Obama's strength in the Rocky Mountain west with a surge of Mormons coming out in Nevada and Colorado in particular.

Then there is the help Romney could provide on McCain’s message, assuming the problem-solving, job-creation Romney is the running mate rather than the born-again social conservative Romney.

McCain can win, no matter his opponent. But there’s the rub. He needs an opponent.

Picking the president: The candidates Click to visit that candidate's MSNBC page or click the XML symbol for an RSS feed. John McCain                Barack Obama

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