'Meet the Press' transcript for March 30, 2008

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me talk about those polls that you both alluded to.  Here's the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.  Head to head, Clinton, Obama, 45, 45.  It's a pick 'em.  In the general election, McCain over Clinton, 46, 44.  Obama over McCain, 44, 42.  Both within the margin of error.

Here's the favorable, unfavorable.  Hillary Clinton.  It is now 37 positive, negative 48.  Just two weeks ago, Clinton was at 45, 43.  She's dropped 8 points with her positive rating in two weeks.  And look at the breakdown by party.  Republicans, 10 positive, 79 negative; independents, just 24 percent positive, 56 percent negative; Democrats split 66, 17.

Obama, his positive is 49, 32.  Two weeks ago, it was 51, 28.  A modest drop in two weeks during the whole Reverend Wright controversy.  Here's breakdown by party.  His positive amongst Republicans is 19.  Remember, Clinton's was 10.  Independents, it's 49.  Clinton's was 24.  Democrats, it's 71.  Clinton's was 66.

Who can unite the country?  This is all voters, Democrats, Republicans, independents.  Obama, 60 to 34; McCain, 58, 35; Clinton, 46 to 50.  Peter, what does that tell you?

MR. BEINART:  I think it tells me that if Hillary Clinton, in the very unlikely event that she were to win this nomination, she would be very damaged by the fight.  And you can see that in those numbers.  She's been the one who's been more damaged.  But I think--it makes the point that I was making earlier, that Barack Obama, who's the person much more likely to win this nomination, has not--and he's gone through the crucible of the campaign.  He's gone through the Jeremiah Wright controversy, and his numbers among, among independents have barely dipped at all.  So what I think it suggests is that he can survive a contest that goes into May or June and still be a very attractive figure amongst independent voters.

MR. RUSSERT:  Who do the Republicans want to run against?

MR. BROOKS:  I think they still want to run against Hillary.  I think they felt that way for a year and I think they still fear Obama more, though they fear him less than they did.  There was a sense that he would crush Republicans 60, 40, I think, among the Republicans I've spoken to.  Now they think they have a shot against him.  So that has changed.  And the independents, remember, they're not--it's not just a one-man or one-woman race, it's vis-a-vis, and it's vis-a-vis McCain.  McCain's approvals are shooting up, 67 percent approval now, especially among independents.  So it's remarkable that those numbers are so close in a year when the Democrats have such a huge advantage overall.

MR. RUSSERT:  You wrote a column the other day, David, saying that if you read John McCain's foreign policy speech of last week closely, in your mind it's not a Bush third term, and it's going to be difficult to portray him as that.  But what about Iraq and the events of the last few days?  Doesn't that make it difficult for John McCain?

MR. BROOKS:  Not necessarily.  It depends how the events shake out. Remember, this is not like all the other insurgency fighting, this is the Maliki government going after the insurgents.  If they win, if they actually establish a monopoly of force in Iraq, make it a more normal country, that'll, that'll be good for McCain.  But I think the, the McCain issue first, it's about character, him standing up for his beliefs in the dark time.  That matters.  But the second thing, that speech was so important because he broke with Bush on several ways.  The first was is our entire foreign policy about the war on terror?  McCain said no.  Should the U.S. go it alone on certain issues?  He said no.  We are a--we need a strong America, but in the community of nations.  And he detailed that.  So it was a very supple and dramatic speech, I think.

MR. RUSSERT:  Take 20 seconds, define the McCain vs. the Democratic race this fall.

MR. BEINART:  The, the McCain race will be, will be Iraq and national security, more generally.  It will be to try to make this another 9/11 presidential election, says--say who has the experience.  For the Democrats, it will be on the biggest foreign policy issue of our time John McCain was wrong, and on the economy he offers more of the same.  We represent change.

MR. RUSSERT:  So it will be George W. McCain?

MR. BEINART:  It will be.  And historically, it is very difficult for one party to win three straight presidential elections.  There is a natural pendulum swing.  When you are the guy from the party in power, it's almost impossible to embody change.  That is one of the big problems John McCain will have.

MR. RUSSERT:  We thank Time magazine, The New Republic and the Council on Foreign Relations for loaning you out this morning, and The New York Times for you, Mr. Brooks.  Keep on writing and thinking.  We appreciate it.

And we'll be right back, right after this.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT:  Two Decision 2008 programming notes.  Tonight here on NBC, watch a special Sunday edition of "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," celebrating their fifth anniversary.  Happy anniversary, Keith.  Tonight at 7 Eastern.  And on MSNBC Wednesday night, "Hardball's College Tour," special guest, Barack Obama at 5 and 7 PM with Chris Matthews.

That's all for today.  We'll be back next week.  If it's Sunday, it is MEET THE PRESS.

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