Taliban may regret strikes on cell phone towers

5.4 million users across country
Afghanistan's cell phone industry has seen explosive growth since towers first appeared in late 2002, Sangin said. The country now has 5.4 million cell phone users, and the industry has invested more than $1 billion. Sangin said he expects another $500 million in investments over the next two years.

Attacks on towers have taken place across the south, where the Taliban is most active. Companies have shut down service primarily in Helmand, Kandahar and Zabul provinces.

An official with knowledge of the situation said about 10 percent of the country's towers were being turned off at night, affecting up to 300,000 people. He spoke on condition he not be identified because he wasn't authorized to release that information.

The shutdown, Sangin noted, is causing problems both for civilians and for militants.

"In these provinces I've actually received reports where the Taliban has gone to some towers and told the companies not to shut them down, and keep them running," said Sangin. "I get the feeling that they are already regretting their decision to shut down the services."

Telecom outlook: 'Pretty good'
Simon Baker, a Moscow-based analyst with the telecommunication firm IDC, said that despite the attacks, the outlook for the telecom industry in Afghanistan is still "pretty good," given the country's large untapped user base.

"There are substantial amounts of capital behind it. I think people will try to find a solution to this," Baker said. "Major international players will take the longer term view."

Sangin said the Taliban's stated reason for wanting the networks shut down — because the U.S. and NATO can track militants' movements — doesn't make sense, because the fighters could simply turn their phones off or remove the batteries. He said the military has other ways to track the militants.

U.S. Ambassador William Wood told reporters last month that the threat could cause investors to hesitate.

"I don't think that it's a serious threat because the Taliban relies on cell phones, too," Wood said. "But you can see how that would be a problem for a private investor."

Sangin, the telecommunications minister, said the Taliban closed down a cell tower in Ghazni province about four months ago, but that villagers demanded it reopen.

"The people said please ... repair the infrastructure and we will guarantee the security of the tower," Sangin said. "We believe that if the Taliban continue with these kinds of activities the hatred will increase against them, and as a result we are awaiting a change in their policy."

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