'Meet the Press' transcript for March 23, 2008

MR. RUSSERT:  What are people on Wall Street telling you?  How nervous are they about what they're seeing?

MS. BURNETT:  The nervousness has increased.  You know, last week, the Treasury secretary, when he was on the "Today" show, said to Matt Lauer, the economy was in sharp decline.  That was a shift.  We had seen the administration more publicly saying the fundamentals of the economy are strong.  They're now, they're now saying, fundamentally over the long term, the economies are strong, that the fundamentals are strong.  But things have changed a little bit, and CEOs are also more concerned.  You know, one of the interviews that, that surprised me recently was several restaurant CEOs--you know, Little Caesars Pizza, Papa John's and Landry's.  They own, say, the cafe--Rainforest Cafe, if you've ever seen that in a mall.  And all of them said over the next 18 months they think things are going to be worse.  And that surprised me, because just a few months ago, they were saying things were all right, or maybe we'll be through this in six months.  The CEOs that deal on the ground with consumers every day are becoming much more negative about the longer term outlook.  That has been significant over the past week.

MR. RUSSERT:  Maria, you talked about the credit crunch, but you mentioned the word recession.  Is there a consensus that we're in a recession?

MS. BARTIROMO:  Probably.  Look, Tim, it doesn't matter what you label it, right?  A recession, sharp slowdown, the bottom line is we're all feeling it. Jobs have been cut, things have slowed down, we are certainly in a sharp slowdown.  Whether it's a recession or not--we could be talking ourselves into a recession, by the way, because all of the headlines and all of the negativity out there...

MS. BURNETT:  Yeah.  That's right.

MS. BARTIROMO:  ...you know, will push us to, to pull in our horns and, and spend less.  So I think that it's--that was sort of last quarter's conversation, and now we're talking about, you know, when this will end and whether or not the markets turn off before the recession.  I'm actually a lot more positive than, than many people out there.  Having said that, you asked the question, how are people on Wall Street feeling?  Nervous.  It's tough, OK?  It's tough out there.  I had the CFO of Lehman on the other day, Erin Callan, and she said, "Maria, this is the toughest I've seen it or anybody who is in the business has seen it for 40 years, like my CEO Dick Fuld." So it's very tough, and yes, it could be a recession.  By the way, we may know more next week when we get the GDP report out on Thursday.  If we see negative growth--because we know that the definition of a recession is two quarters of negative growth.  We haven't seen that yet.  So we don't know that it's a recession.  But as far as I'm concerned, it doesn't matter.  It doesn't matter what you call it.  This is--this is real...

MS. BURNETT:  Right, it's semantic.

MS. BARTIROMO:  ...and it's a slowdown.

MR. RUSSERT:  Does anyone talk privately of calamity?  A real meltdown?

MS. BURNETT:  Some people do.  There are some, some--one you know, Marc Faber, he edits The Gloom, Doom and Boom report.

MS. BARTIROMO:  Oh god.

MS. BURNETT:  Yeah, right?  All right, there are those out there who will always entertain the Armageddon, cataclysmic scenario.  But it appears, from what the Fed did this week, and I think, you know, Maria was right when she said you can't underestimate the significance of what they did with Bear Stearns and with that discount window that the central banks of the world right now do not want that, and they will do anything to prevent it, and they have the full faith of their governments behind them, and they have the one thing that people may not realize.  They can print money.  They can print money out of it.  And again, that creates problems down the road, but they will do whatever it takes, I believe, at this point to avoid that Armageddon-like situation.

MR. RUSSERT:  An investor, with his portfolio, her portfolio, watching today, what should they be thinking, Maria?

MS. BARTIROMO:  Well, it's always a good time to reassess where your money is.  If you have money in a bank, in a CD, you are insured.  The FDIC is insuring that money.  You are fine.  I don't think you want to look at what's happening right now and have any knee-jerk reactions.  I think you want to save, invest wisely for the long term.  Long term means five, 10, 15, 20 years and beyond.  But it's always a good time to say to yourself, "Well, is my money in an institution that I think is shaky?" Is my money in, in an area where, you know, we could see a reversal of fortune?  And you want to be diversified.  I think so long as you're diversified and you have--you know, I call it the three buckets, putting your money.  Number one bucket, simple savings account.  You're not going to get a great yield, but you know it's safe if life throws you a curve ball.  Number two, 401(k), you must have money for retirement.  And number three, you need to have some money in the bucket of stocks because virtually every asset class will be exceeded by the performance of stocks over the long term.

So I would not be, you know, getting, getting so, you know, knee-jerk reaction and, and nervous over this.  Yes, we're in a downturn, for sure, but everything is cyclical.  This too will pass.  By the way, you asked if people are calling this, you know, a calamity.  Alan Greenspan in an op-ed just last week said that this is the worst since World War II.  So yes, people are certainly nervous about it.

MR. RUSSERT:  I'm not asking you to be political predictors, but there is an election in November.

MS. BARTIROMO:  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  Based on your reporting, do you think the economic downturn lasts through November and goes into '09?

MS. BURNETT:  That is a great question.  Right now the consensus forecast, which would include the administration, is that in the second half of this year things turn around.  The economy is once again growing, the administration now projects we could have half a million jobs created over that timeframe.  Many people are more skeptical, and, and it would appear from talking to CEOs in many industries--not just the restaurants, as I mentioned, or even Lehman Brothers, that it will last through the rest of the year.  But I think one crucial thing to remember is the market often looks ahead.  And when the market recognizes there's a recession, historically one year after that the market's up 15, 16 percent.  So you might make money in the market, but as for the overall economy, what voters are going to be dealing with in November, it will likely be an economy that is still in a recession or very close to it.

MR. RUSSERT:  The psychology, so important.  I remember in 1992, the economy grew in the fourth quarter some 4.7 percent, but the perception on Election Day was, "We're in bad economic times."

MS. BURNETT:  Yeah, mm-hmm.

MS. BARTIROMO:  Well, I think that, you know, we are in a slow period, and it will go into the second half, but you have to believe that all of this stimulus will take effect at some point.  In May we'll get those checks from the government, the fiscal stimulus package.  Rates keep coming down.  You know, the, the banks are seeing an ease up by this liquidity from the Fed.  I, I suspect that by the second half of the year we see a little ease up.  But most people are predicting that the--this does go into '09, actually.  I think, though, the market will obviously trade up a lot sooner than that.

MR. RUSSERT:  Final thoughts?

MS. BURNETT:  One positive thing out there.  Everyone talks about the weak dollar as a sign of weakness in the U.S. economy.  Big picture, you can't really disagree with that, Tim, but when you look at it day to day, the weak dollar has been stimulating the one part of this economy that's still growing--exports.  It's cheap for everyone that lives everywhere else in the world to buy American-made products.  So about 12 percent of our economy is exports, and it is booming.  And it's cheaper here right now for other companies, so BMW's opening plants in the United States, Honda's opening plants in the United States and creating jobs.  So the weak dollar, the weak economy is creating an opportunity in and of itself.

MR. RUSSERT:  Final thoughts?

MS. BARTIROMO:  Well, the situation at Bear Stearns is really a tragedy. Shareholders, employees, they're wiped out because of this $2-a-share bid. But oftentimes situations, events like this takeover of Bear Stearns often represent a bottom.  I would not be surprised if we have seen the worst at this point in terms of hard, hard economic times.

MR. RUSSERT:  To be continued.  Thank you for your expertise, ladies.

MS. BURNETT:  Good to see you, Tim.

MS. BARTIROMO:  Thanks, Tim.

MR. RUSSERT:  Good to have you here.

Coming next, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Barack Obama.  They speak out on race and gender, Iraq and more.  Our roundtable is next.  Jon Meacham, Peggy Noonan, Gene Robinson, Chuck Todd all coming up right here only on MEET THE PRESS.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT:  Our political roundtable:  Jon Meacham of Newsweek, Peggy Noonan of The Wall Street Journal, Eugene Robinson of The Washington Post, Chuck Todd of NBC News, all after this station break.

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