Can Clinton win over superdelegates?

This is one area where Clinton has been running circles around Obama.  As far as the media’s concerned, Obama may be the Democratic frontrunner, but Clinton is in the driver's seat.

Looking at the campaign narrative, it's hard to identify the frontrunner.

In fact, if you ignore the numbers and just examine the messages being lobbed back and forth between the two campaigns, one might assume Clinton was in the lead.

(This is something that could start being reflected in some national polls. On Monday, a Gallup poll showed that in a potential match-up, Clinton would best John McCain 51 percent to 46 percent. Obama would lead 49 percent to 47 percent. Surely, these numbers are giving Team Obama some serious heartburn.)

Since the unveiling of the "3am phone call" television ad, there hasn't been a news cycle or a storyline that hasn't been controlled by the Clinton campaign.

Whether it's downplaying Obama's momentum ahead of the March 4 contests, placing emphasis on the importance of the Pennsylvania primary, or shifting focus to the potential for re-votes in Michigan and Florida, the media narrative seems to be in Clinton’s favor.

This is a reality for a few reasons.

First, and most importantly, is the media's bias toward keeping the campaign going.

A boost from bias?
But it's more than that, it's also a bias rooted in history. Many a reporter believes that someone with the last name of "Clinton" should never be counted out. And that built-in bias is assisting the campaign, despite the Clintons history of antagonism with the press.

Longtime readers know that when I toss out the word "bias,” I never do so ideologically.

I believe most bias is based on experience or what I call the "been there, done that" disease. We're all prisoners of history and this Democratic nomination fight features two conflicting historical precedents.

The one that favors Obama throws back to the last two major Democratic nomination fights in '80 and '84. The candidate who was in Obama's position (Carter and Mondale, respectively) won, while the candidate in Clinton's position (Kennedy and Hart) lost.

Of course, that historical perspective is a bit warped since unlike this year, the establishment candidate stayed ahead in those two elections, while the outsider always trailed.

It's vice versa this year.

The second historical anecdote, which favors Clinton, is that last name of hers.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March. 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 Dec. 19, 2007 Nov. 7, 2007 Oct. 3, 2007 Sept. 12, 2007 Aug. 1, 2007 June. 13, 2007 April. 25, 2007 March. 7, 2007 Jan. 22, 2007 Dec. 13, 2006 Oct. 18, 2006 Oct. 3, 2006 Sept. 13, 2006 July 26, 2006 June 14, 2006 April 24, 2006 March 15, 2006 Jan. 30, 2006

A Clinton always finds a way to survive, so goes the myth.

Bill Clinton has escaped political death more times than any politician in history. And profiles of Hillary Clinton are rarely written without the word "resilient" being featured prominently.

The irony to all of this, of course, is that while the mechanics of the Democratic nomination fight overwhelmingly favor Obama, the media is giving Clinton a huge lift. And this comes after a year of Clinton complaints that the media was doing them more harm than good.

Does Clinton have a path to the nomination? If this were a pure delegate fight, perhaps not and, frankly, I still have my doubts given what I think is a deeper superdelegate problem.

But anything is possible, and if Obama becomes unelectable for some reason over the next few months, Clinton will be there to pick up the pieces.

The trick for her is how to pick up those pieces without being the person to break Obama into pieces.

If her campaign goes completely "scorched Earth" in its efforts to make Obama appear unelectable, there may not be time to put the party back together for a run at John McCain.

The Rev. Wright stuff is the first major problem for Obama that the Clinton campaign smartly stayed away from.

It’s going to take another troublesome moment or two like this for Obama for the superdelegates to start re-thinking their nervousness about another eight years of a Clinton leading their party.

If this doesn’t happen organically, then it may not be a nomination worth having.

Picking the president: The candidates Click to visit that candidate's MSNBC page or click the XML symbol for an RSS feed. John McCain                Barack Obama

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