Can Clinton win over superdelegates?

Chuck Todd Political Director • Profile

WASHINGTON - Forget the pledged delegate issue that Sen. Hillary Clinton is facing; her real problem may be on the superdelegate front.

As many folks following this Democratic fight now realize, Clinton’s only shot at the nomination is to somehow make a case to the majority of the superdelegates that she’ll be the better nominee for the party.

But ask yourself, why does Clinton have less than half of superdelegates publicly behind her right now? Why isn’t her number higher?

At last count, Clinton had 253 superdelegates in her corner, not counting another dozen or so from Michigan and Florida.

But even including those folks, Clinton has fewer than 40 percent of superdelegates supporting her, and that's after more than a year of campaigning.

This is the wife of the former president, after all. Shouldn’t there be at least 400 party leaders who owe something to the Clintons on board?

This has been a campaign riddle that many of us have overlooked.

Clinton problems
One reason this has been brushed under the rug? Media-types don't realize the problems many rank-and-file Democratic activists have with the Clinton family.

Simply take a look at Bill Clinton's record from '92 to '00 and you’ll understand why they're having a harder time corralling party activists and elected officials to their side.

Remember, when his name was on the ballot ('92 and '96) the Democratic party lost Senate seats both times. Never mind the beating the party took in '94; a walloping often blamed on both Bill and Hillary.

Even in '98, which was, perhaps, the most successful Congressional election of the Clinton era, the party netted zero Senate seats and gained less than a handful of House seats.

It's not exactly something to brag about.

While there are plenty of unknowns about Obama’s ability to truly expand the base of the Democratic Party, there are plenty of superdelegates who think they know Clinton couldn't rise to that very same challenge.

The scars of the '90s are still rather prominent for some Democrats, particularly members of the House leadership who appear to be leaning Obama’s way (see Nancy Pelosi’s weekend comments).

Video Iraq over the economy Mar. 17: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the presidential candidates' focus on the Iraq anniversary. MSNBC

The Clintons' up-and-down relationship with some Congressional Democrats in the ‘90s could become an issue when many of these undecided members of Congress (a.k.a. superdelegates)are asked to make up their mind.

In fact, that's not the Clintons' only rocky relationship. Key labor leaders also hold some grudges from that decade, when they felt like they had to capitulate more on certain things, like NAFTA. Some felt that it was beginning of what would be a long, hard fall from power in the '90s and early '00s. 

So if Clinton has a pledged delegate problem (something that’s been well documented) and also has a superdelegate problem, then what’s her path to victory?

Believe it or not, it’s the media.

MORE FROM DECISION '08

Decision '08 Section Front

McCain hits key states in shadow of Obama trip NYT: Bush, McCain diverging in foreign policy? McCain urges China to free Tibetans Analysis: Echoes of Clinton's campaign in race Obama urges Iran to accept EU nuke proposal Nonprofits walk fine line on political activity Bush policy shifts leave Obama without a foil Newsweek: Factchecking McCain's Viagra moment Brownstein: The risk of Obama rapture Newsweek: McCain and Obama miss the real crisis Decision '08 Section Front   Add Decision '08 headlines to your news reader: