Tuesday races promise easier interpretation

By John Harwood

updated 11:53 p.m. ET March 3, 2008

When 22 states selected Democratic delegates on a single day last month, the sheer scale made election night returns difficult to follow.

The voting on Tuesday could be decisive for the race between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton . With four states voting —Ohio , Rhode Island , Texas and Vermont —there is less to keep track of.

But with so much at stake, especially in Ohio and Texas, and with the proceedings in Texas more complicated than a simple primary, there will be no shortage of facts and analysis as the evening unfolds.

There are some factors to watch for.

Survival
A result virtually everyone in presidential politics will scrutinize most intently is whether the results prod Mrs. Clinton to end her effort to become the first female president.

The more decisive the outcome, the easier her choice. Should Mr. Obama sweep all four contests, her hopes will plainly be extinguished.

Should she carry Ohio and Texas — as her husband, the former president, said she must to retain a shot at the nomination — she will no doubt fight on to the next big battle, on April 22 in Pennsylvania, and, perhaps, all the way to the convention in Denver.

Trickier to handicap would be a split decision, in which Mrs. Clinton won Ohio, for example, but lost Texas.

For people who want to think about possible permutations, keep this one in mind. Because of the way Texas allocates delegates, it is entirely possible that Mrs. Clinton could win the popular vote there but lose to Mr. Obama on delegates.

Out of the gate
In many elections, the first precincts reporting vote totals do not mean much, because the totals bear little relation to the ultimate outcome. But the first returns in Texas, where all polls will close by 9 p.m. Eastern time, may count a lot.

That is because they will represent “early voting” from before Election Day, a segment that the Clinton campaign considers crucial to its hopes. Early voting could make up one-third of the turnout.

Allies of Clinton
For much of the primary campaign, demography has been destiny. So Mrs. Clinton’s hopes in Ohio and Texas could turn on the turnout composition.

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In Texas, Mrs. Clinton wants the Hispanic constituency that has favored her to loom as large as possible. Strategists in both campaigns say it could be 40 percent of the vote.

In Ohio, the key is how much women dominate the electorate. Women have been a majority of Democratic primary voters. The more their share exceeds 55 percent, the better for Mrs. Clinton.

Mrs. Clinton’s campaign is also focusing Democrats in relatively conservative southern Ohio, the home region of her top ally in the state, Gov. Ted Strickland.

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