'Meet the Press' transcript for March 2, 2008

MR. TIM RUSSERT:  Our issues this Sunday:  In just 48 hours, the Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont primaries, as Clinton and Obama campaign furiously following their debate on Tuesday.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY):  I have been a critic of NAFTA from the very beginning.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL):  I think that it is inaccurate for Senator Clinton to say that she's always opposed NAFTA.

MR. RUSSERT:  With us, he helped put Bill and Hillary Clinton in the White House in 1992:  Democrat James Carville.  She worked for Bush 41, Bush 43 and Dick Cheney:  Republican Mary Matalin.  He worked for John McCain on his 2000 presidential campaign:  Republican Mike Murphy.  And he worked for Kerry, Gore and Barack Obama's key supporter Ted Kennedy:  Democrat Bob Shrum.  The very latest polls, strategies and issues.  The race for the White House through the eyes of Carville, Matalin, Murphy and Shrum, only on MEET THE PRESS.

And in our MEET THE PRESS minute, the founder of the modern conservative movement, William F.  Buckley Jr., died this week at the age of 82.  Nearly 43 years ago he famously reflected on the uniqueness of the average American right here on MEET THE PRESS.

(Videotape, October 17, 1965)

MR. WILLIAM F.  BUCKLEY JR (Conservative):  You know, I would rather be governed by the first 2,000 people in the Boston telephone directory than by the 2,000 people on the faculty of Harvard University.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  But first, this is it, just two days away from what has become known as junior Super Tuesday.  Here are the latest polls in Ohio and Texas.

In Ohio, it's Clinton, 47; Obama, 43.  Look at this gender gap.  Amongst men it's Obama 51-38; women it's Clinton 53-38.  And the age differential, if you're under 50, Obama 52-to-38; if you're over 50, Clinton 54-to-36.

Let's look at Texas, 46-to-45.  And look at this gender gap.  It's the same. Obama, 54; Clinton, 37.  Women, Clinton, 51; Obama, 40.  The breakdown, blacks vs.  Hispanics, and here it is:  blacks, Obama 86-to-6; Hispanics, Clinton 62-to-30.

James Carville, what does it tell you?

MR. JAMES CARVILLE:  I--it tells me that we're going to have to see what happens Tuesday night.  There's nobody in the world could look at these two polls and predict with any confidence the, the outcome.  And by the way, this is reflected in almost every public poll I've seen, as she has a slight margin of error lead in Ohio, and that Texas is, is neck and neck.  And it's going to--we'll just have to wait and see.

MR. RUSSERT:  Mike Murphy.

MR. MIKE MURPHY:  Polls show a close race, I agree with James.  But I think the energy is with Obama, and the thing I'd be watching on election day is turnout in Obama's demographics, the young.  A lot of these polls are modeled on history, you know, what happened last time, which is a fair assumption. Obama is the last-time breaker.  He--it creates a turnout dynamic that's incredibly powerful.  So my gut tells me he's going to take them both, and that'll be the end.  But we don't know yet.  They're close races.

She's in trouble, though.  The problem is, even if she wins, maybe it's 15, 16 delegate advantage when she's more than 100 behind.  So going on, she buys a ticket to keep fighting, but it's an uphill fight all the way.  The math--the delegate math is very hard for her.

MR. RUSSERT:  Bob Shrum, it is tough trying to figure out these primaries. For example, that poll in Texas estimates the black turnout at about 22 percent...

MR. BOB SHRUM:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...of Obama's overall.  In 2004 it was 21 percent.  The Obama camp will say it might be higher because of the energy in the campaign.

MR. SHRUM:  Well, it will be.  2004 was a nonevent.  John Kerry was already the Democratic nominee for president.  No one, no one really cared.  I think Mike's on to something here when what we're really seeing is a generational struggle inside the Democratic Party.  We've seen this before.  I think Senator Clinton is a little like the Beach Boys and has the same kind of reaction as when The Beatles arrived in America.  She can't believe that someone's taking her place.

And there's a huge fight going on inside the party, I think, between the old order and an emerging new order.  And I don't know how it's going to be resolved.  I think it's very, very close.  I do believe Bill Clinton was right:  She must win both of these.  They cannot move the goalposts.  In fact, I think a lot of Democrats that I've talked to, including some who are supporting Senator Clinton--and the ones who are supporting Senator Clinton want her to win both, but if she's going to lose one, they'd rather have her lose both so this thing is over.

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