Putin speeds up transition to Medvedev

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Medvedev, who also serves as chairman of the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, reduced gas supplies to Ukraine on Monday. Russia says the dispute over natural gas with Ukraine is strictly a financial one, a result of the alleged nonpayment by Ukraine for $600 million in past gas deliveries.

But the timing suggested a possible deeper motive: a signal that despite his purported liberal leanings, Medvedev plans to rule with a firm hand — one perhaps guided by Putin.

The last time Russia cut gas supplies to Ukraine was in January 2006 in a move widely seen as punishment for the opposition-led Orange Revolution, which blocked a Kremlin-backed candidate from becoming Ukraine’s president.

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Since then, Russia has expressed continuing anger over Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO and forge stronger links with the European Union.

Medvedev may have been motivated by the need to appear tough in the face of Russia’s dispute with Ukraine over gas payments, said Chris Weafer, chief strategist for the UralSib investment bank.

“He didn’t want to be seen as backing down,” he said.

Gazprom’s reduction of gas to Ukraine could be an early signal of Medvedev’s foreign policy. Another early sign could come in July at the summit of the Group of Eight leading industrialized nations: If Putin goes alone or accompanies Medvedev, that could signal his reluctance to relinquish control.

In Russia, the premier wields significantly less power than the president, and Putin may find his new chair confining. Some officials who know the quiet, unassuming Medvedev have said privately that he is tougher than his appearance and demeanor suggest.

Medvedev’s election was not a wide-open contest. His three rivals apparently were permitted on the ballot because of their loyalty to the Kremlin line. But after the election, Communist Party candidate Gennady Zyuganov and ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky alleged elections violations.

Zyuganov, Medvedev’s nearest challenger with almost 18 percent in near-complete results, said he would dispute the outcome. Zhirinovsky, with 9 percent, threatened to do so as well.

Liberal opposition leaders Kasparov and Mikhail Kasyanov were barred from running after authorities said they did not meet the strict requirements for gaining a spot on the ballot.