Clinton, Obama seek early voting upper hand

Lone Star state is in play
State election officials predict that one-third to one-half of the total Democratic primary vote will be cast early.

"Texas is in play for the first time in many years, and it's encouraging a lot of people to participate. The campaigns are also really well-organized and are paying a lot of attention to them," said Scott Haywood, a spokesman for the Texas Secretary of State's office.

The state's two largest counties — Dallas and Harris, where Houston is located — are Obama's strongholds in the state. Officials estimate that early voting turnout in those places is as much as eight to 10 times higher than it was in 2004.

"We're pleased to see a strong turnout in those counties," Obama Texas spokesman Josh Earnest said. "Our supporters are very enthusiastic and eager to get out and vote for him."

Competing strategies
But Clinton's campaign officials warn not to make too many assumptions, noting that the majority of voters in both counties were women, many over the age of 50. Older women are among Clinton's only remaining demographic strongholds.

Meanwhile, Clinton's other stronghold, Hispanic voters, are casting early ballots at a rapid clip in South Texas and are projected to wait until primary day to vote in other parts of the state.

"If you factor it all in, overwhelmingly more women than men will vote early in this state," Clinton field organizer Nick Clemons said. "In terms of delegate math, we're going to hold our own."

But even that prediction is risky, based on the complicated way the state apportions its 228 delegates.

Under the turnout formula, Houston gets seven delegates and Dallas gets six while the poorer Hispanic counties that tend to favor Clinton get only three. Clinton hopes to build up delegates in these smaller counties and isolate Obama to the heavily black urban areas.

"There are only so many delegates in Harris County, no matter how big a turnout Obama produces," said Bob Stein, a political scientist at Houston's Rice University who studies voter turnout. "Clinton is working to win in smaller areas across the state where there are Hispanics and not a lot of black voters."

But Stein said Clinton needs a heavy early vote showing more than Obama, noting his voters are more independent and have tended to break later. Such was the pattern in California, where Clinton dominated early voting while Obama came on strong at the end.

The fact that Obama is doing as well as he is in early voting bodes well for him, Stein added.

"The conventional wisdom suggests yeah, it favors her. But look at what's happening in Harris County," he said.

Picking the president: The candidates Click to visit that candidate's MSNBC page or click the XML symbol for an RSS feed. John McCain                Barack Obama

MORE FROM

Section Front

Obama campaign head gets big book deal Officials turn down Franken request Joe the Plumber to become war correspondent Franken lead at 49 with absentees left to count Minn. Senate winner won't be known in 2008 First Read: 'Twas the seventh week of recount... Franken opens first lead in Minn. Senate race Mom of Palin daughter's boyfriend arrested Minn. court weighs rejected absentee ballots Minnesota panel reviews disputed ballots Section Front   Add headlines to your news reader: