Can Barack Obama be stopped?

Chuck Todd Chief White House correspondent and political director • Profile

WASHINGTON - There's no dispute anymore. Sen. Barack Obama is the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination and he's one win away from putting this race to bed.

A victory in either Ohio or Texas will probably drive Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race. Victories for Obama in both states will definitely end it.

Obama's trajectory is really stunning right now.

He's 10-0 since Super Tuesday, and remarkably, his smallest margin of victory came Tuesday night in Wisconsin.

That's right, Obama's 17 point blowout of Clinton in the Badger State was his poorest showing since Super Tuesday.

He's gone from a narrow pledged delegate lead (and overall delegate deficit) on Feb. 6 to a nearly insurmountable 150+ pledged delegate lead.

When you factor in superdelegates, he's still ahead by 80.

In fact, expect Obama's superdelegate deficit to Clinton to close very quickly over the next 13 days.

Right now, he's trailing her by approximately 75 superdelegates.

My guess is he'll pick up a net of 20 superdelegates before March 4. That's based on more than a hunch but I'll leave it at that.

Meanwhile, how many public superdelegate endorsements will Clinton receive before the big day in Ohio and Texas? She’s only received two since Super Tuesday.

The Clinton campaign finds itself at a real crossroads.

What's the end game? Fast-forward to Denver and picture Clinton accepting the Democratic nomination. Now, ask yourself, how did she get there?

Video Chuck Todd crunches the numbers Feb. 19: NBC's Chuck Todd offers analysis on the latest polls from the Wisconsin primary. Nightly News

The only plausible explanation is that Obama makes a series of mistakes that suddenly makes him unelectable. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? No.

Now, is it possible for Clinton to force a series of Obama missteps without it backfiring? The answer to this question is probably one of the great debates inside her campaign.

We're already hearing whispers that there are multiple camps inside Team Clinton that are split on how to go after Obama.

There are some who believe a sustained negative campaign -- something Obama has NEVER dealt with -- is a winning strategy.

But is it? Can Clinton damage Obama for the long term? Yes.

But can she damage him and keep herself politically viable in 2008? I'm not so sure.

And some Clinton loyalists aren’t so sure either. Apparently, there are some inside the campaign who realize that Hillary Clinton has a political future beyond 2008 and –- might -- just might -- have another presidential campaign in her future.

But she can't go "scorched Earth" now and hope to preserve her viability as a political powerhouse either in the Senate or as the potential Democratic savior in 2012.

Obama could lose in November. In fact, even now, I'd argue that he's got no better than a 55 percent chance at winning the White House.

And John McCain isn't going to be an easy foe for either Obama or Clinton. Add in the fact that a potential Obama-McCain matchup would be the fairest media fight in a generation. The media seems to be equally loving (and forgiving) both candidates right now. It’s a fascinating component to this potential match-up.

What's remarkable about watching the rise of Obama is its similarities to the ascent of another seemingly bulletproof Democratic politician: Bill Clinton.

Like Clinton in '92, Obama gets every benefit of the doubt from the media and from the voters.

He's been allowed to make mistakes and apologize for them; just like Clinton '92.

(Latest two examples: Michelle Obama’s borderline offensive response that she’s only been proud to be an American once in her adult lifetime, and the Deval Patrick “word sharing” ordeal.)

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