Spy satellite shootdown hinges on tricky factors

By Robert Burns

updated 10:38 p.m. ET Feb. 20, 2008

WASHINGTON - The Defense Department counted down Wednesday toward a dramatic effort to shoot down a dying and potentially deadly U.S. spy satellite, using a high-tech missile fired from a ship in the Pacific. Foul weather threatened to delay the operation.

The timing was tricky. For the best chance to succeed, the military awaited a combination of favorable factors: steady seas around the Navy cruiser that would fire the missile, optimum positioning of the satellite as it passed in polar orbit and the readiness of an array of space- and ground-based sensors to help cue the missile and track the results.

The head of U.S. Pacific Command headquarters in Hawaii says he's "cautiously optimistic" that a missile will be launched in an attempt to shoot down a dying spy satellite.

Admiral Timothy Keating tells reporters he also believes the effort will be successful. Keating says weather in the area of the launch ship is favorable. Keating has been consulting with his counterparts in other regions about the shootdown plan.'

The operation is so extraordinary that Defense Secretary Robert Gates, not a military commander, gets to make the final decision to pull the trigger.

The government has organized hazardous materials teams to be flown to the site of any dangerous or otherwise sensitive debris that might land in the U.S. or elsewhere. The operation was so extraordinary, with such intense international publicity and political ramifications, that Defense Secretary Robert Gates — not a military commander — was to make the final decision to pull the trigger.

The U.S. government organized hazardous materials teams, under the code name "Burnt Frost," to be flown to the site of any dangerous or otherwise sensitive debris that might land in the United States or elsewhere.

High seas in the north Pacific posed the first obstacle as the USS Lake Erie prepared to launch a three-stage missile. Beyond a certain point, rough seas can interfere with the cruiser's launch procedures.

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The plan was for the SM-3 to soar 130 miles to just beyond the edge of the Earth's atmosphere in an attempt to speed its non-explosive warhead directly into the satellite.
Early in the day, a senior military officer said it did not look as if the weather would be good enough. That was shortly after the space shuttle Atlantis landed, removing the last safety issue for the military to begin determining the best moment for launch.

Another officer said hours later the weather was improving and might permit a launch by Wednesday night. Or the military could try again on Thursday or any day until about Feb. 29, when the satellite is expected to have re-entered the Earth's atmosphere.

The aim is not just to hit the bus-sized satellite — which would burn up upon re-entering the atmosphere anyway — but to obliterate a tank onboard that is carrying 1,000 pounds of hydrazine, a toxic fuel. The fuel, unused because the satellite died shortly after reaching orbit in December 2006 — could be hazardous if it landed in a populated area.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a health bulletin saying that the health risk from satellite debris was considered to be low. "However, CDC is encouraging health officials and clinicians to review information about the health effects related to hydrazine to prepare in case their communities are affected by satellite debris."

In a routine precaution, notifications have been issued worldwide to mariners and aviators to stay clear of an area in the Pacific where the satellite debris might fall. The military has calculated that the risk to aviation is so low that U.S. and international aviation officials have decided they are probably not going to reroute air traffic, a senior military officer said Wednesday.

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