'Meet the Press' transcript for Feb. 17, 2008

MR. RUSSERT: But how would that work, if the race--if Obama wins Wisconsin and if Clinton wins Texas and Ohio but the margins are small, and Obama still has a lead amongst elected delegates, how do you arrange a deal?

MR. NOVAK: There has to be some kind of arrangement. Now, Howard Dean has, has offered to do it. I thought that was the joke of the week, that they would let him pick the candidate of the party. But there, but there has to be some kind of a--an avoidance of a collision. They, they outsmarted themselves by having the convention so late in, in--the Democrats did, in, in August, because they just--there's just no time. And all this--if they go all the way into Denver and John McCain has been crowned long before, he's brought back all the dissidents, I think that'd be a very untenable position for the Democrats.

MS. O'BEIRNE: I thought the conversation between Senator Schumer and Senator Durbin was so revealing. Senator Durbin made his arguments based on the merits: "It would be unfair to change the rules now. You ought to listen to the voters. This is a matter of basic fairness." And Senator Schumer arguing in favor, I guess, of superdelegates not going along, necessarily, with the popular vote or the, or the candidate with the most delegates. He talked all process, and I think it's because he doesn't have the merits on his side. I, I do not believe--I would be surprised if the superdelegates, who are largely politicians, thwart the will of the voters by doing anything other than, than rubber stamping, if you will, going along with the candidate with the greatest number of delegates than, than the largest popular--they're also politicians looking at the polls, and if Obama is leading McCain, I think they'll go with Obama.

MR. RUSSERT: Margaret.

MS. CARLSON: How you see Michigan and Florida and the superdelegates depends on who you're for. The superdelegates, Obama doesn't want to play by the rules as stated, although I doubt many voters understand the superdelegate rule, which is you do what you want and you're supposed to save the party from people who are insurgents. And on Michigan and Florida, he does want to play by the rules because the rules are clear, and there is--there are lots of statements of Clinton on the record saying, "Yes, Michigan and Florida don't count."

MR. SHIELDS: Not for the first time, Margaret Carlson is absolutely right. The Clinton people have the case for the superdelegates on their side. Up--they started after the 1980 campaign. There was an attempt to bring grown-ups in, to have somebody, Tim, who had a continuing interest in the party beyond a particular candidate or a particular campaign, beyond the passions of the moment, that had a lot longer view, that these people came in, that they didn't have to compete to get there. There was no sense that they were then to be an appendage and just reflect the vote return; they were there as independent actors. Now you want to change that, fine. I think as a practical matter, Kate is right, that if it's going to work wrath upon you if you do go against what is seen as a very popular decision.

MR. NOVAK: But the reliance on the superdelegates was a, was a part of the old Clinton plan of tying this thing up well in advance, that this wasn't going to be a contest, it was going to be decided by February 5, and this, and the superdelegates were just one small element in that old...

MR. SHIELDS: Yes.

MR. NOVAK: ...that strategy, which has been a failed strategy.

MR. SHIELDS: Well, there are two...

MR. RUSSERT: Al Hunt, you wrote a column today which says it's peer review.

MR. HUNT: It is. And I think superdelegates are very good idea and I think they should be free to vote. Ted Kennedy should vote for Barack Obama if he wants to. John Lewis can decide which one he wants to vote for. I think Kate's right. If one candidate has clearly won, there's no way in the world these superdelegates are going to try to thwart the will of the majority. The only way they will matter if it's an absolute deadlock on June the 10th.

Florida and Michigan, it's a different story, Tim. That goes back to the questions you asked Senators Schumer and Durbin, what are the rules, what did everyone agree to? I did interview Nancy Pelosi, who is the chair of the convention, a far more important figure in this whole thing than Howard Dean, and she said it would just be wrong for those delegations to be dispositive, that that is--that would blow up the party if anyone tried to do that.

MR. RUSSERT: So what happens if Obama has the lead amongst elected delegates, but Clinton does very well in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and has the lead with the popular vote?

MR. HUNT: He comes in with 2,000 delegates and she has 1800 delegates, he'll be the nominee.

MR. RUSSERT: How about if he has a lead of 10?

MR. HUNT: Then I think it's up for grabs.

MR. RUSSERT: Anyone disagree?

MS. O'BEIRNE: I think he could have a lead of one and I think, I think the superdelegates would ratify what their--what Democrats who bothered to show up for caucuses and primaries did.

MR. NOVAK: I think there is such a resistance to deadlock at the convention that they're going to break in one direction or another.

MS. O'BEIRNE: Mm-hmm.

MR. NOVAK: And as somebody said, I think the idea that if Obama is ahead of Clinton--of McCain in the polls and she's behind, I think there'd be a rush to Obama.

MR. RUSSERT: So public polls will play a role?

MR. NOVAK: I think so, a big role.

MR. SHIELDS: As my precinct committee woman taught me 70 years ago, you know, a day is a lifetime in politics; a week is an eternity. I mean, we're talking right now in February for a convention that's going to be held the end of August. You know, what happens? What do we learn about either of them or their supporters? What does former President Bill Clinton do? What do we find out about Chicago politics? I mean, it, you know, all of those are going to be a dynamic in the decision, and I think that's the case that is made by many to wait for the superdelegates. I mean, they've all been courted, they've been wooed. That's fine, I think that's fair. But I think there is a virtue and a value to wait until all the evidence is in. They are jurors of a sort.

MR. RUSSERT: But Florida and Michigan you think is...

MR. SHIELDS: I think, I think if Hillary Clinton leads in the popular vote, I think her case is strengthened to going in. I mean, I think Obama has to win.

MS. CARLSON: For Florida and Michigan?

MR. SHIELDS: I'm sorry. Pardon me. If she wins Ohio and Texas and Pennsylvania, I think at that point, Tim, that there's an, there's an argument, can this guy win Democratic votes. I mean, Ohio being a perfect example. Can he win blue-collar, moderate-income Democrats?

MR. RUSSERT: Let me turn to Bill Clinton. Mark, you raised him. Bill Clinton's been back on the campaign trail. This is what he said on Tuesday. "Well, I think she's been the underdog ever since Iowa. ... We've gotten plenty of delegates on a shoestring." And then this: "After February 5, we went through a dry spell because the caucuses aren't good for her. They disproportionately favor upper income voters who don't really need a president, but feel like they need a change."

MS. CARLSON: They all came in limos to the caucuses.

MR. SHIELDS: Yeah. All those rich people in North Dakota.

MS. CARLSON: Yeah.

MR. SHIELDS: You been to Maine recently?

MS. CARLSON: Right. Yeah, yeah.

MR. NOVAK: You know, he, Bill Clinton, now that he's a millionaire, is even worse then he used to be.

MR. HUNT: But you like him more now that he's...

0R. NOVAK: No, it is--he is really almost a terrific embarrassment. I think they wish that he would just--he was supposed to be the great asset for her campaign. I think he's a terrific liability now.

MS. CARLSON: He was a great asset when he was behind the scenes. Once he came out after Iowa, he was given full rein because he--she lost Iowa, so, "Oh, my God, what are we going to do? Oh, well, let's put Bill Clinton out there." And it turned out to be a terrible error, because it reminded people of "The Clintons." Separately, they're a lot better than they are together, and he has been--he's done nothing but hamper the campaign.

MR. RUSSERT: But in Texas and Wisconsin he gets big crowds, Mark, as a surrogate.

MR. SHIELDS: He does--he does get--he gets big crowds everywhere he goes. But one of, one of the people in the Clinton campaign, rather high up, confessed to me when he was going through that terrible period where, in South Carolina, where he did the Jesse Jackson equation with Barack Obama, and it obviously hurt the campaign, said that the problem is Bill Clinton, seven years had been out of office and he's been--he's rusty. He's been given speeches for $250,000 to Bob's friends, the CEOs, and they're an uncritical group and they just kind of give him adulation. He's lost his political edge and his political skills and I think it's been apparent in this campaign. When he said the other day they'd been running the campaign on a shoestring, a shoestring, Tim, $140 million is a shoestring?

MR. NOVAK: Only...

MR. SHIELDS: Mike Huckabee's running on a shoestring.

MR. NOVAK: Mark Shields said one of the great lines that I have stolen, as I've stolen many of his lines when he--and it worries people, and because Bill Clinton in this--you know, in a Clinton administration, would not just be a first husband, he would be a major figure. And Mark's line was, "Think of Bill Clinton as the president's husband, all alone in the White House every day with nothing to do." Now that is something I think that worries people.

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