America’s fastest growing metropolitan areas

Bruce Katz, director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, says there are several factors to take into consideration when measuring the pulse of a metro area: innovation, human capital, infrastructure and the actual quality of a place.

"These assets drive everything," says Katz. Some ways to measure them: the number of patents a metro area produces (innovation), the number of college graduates that live there (human capital), the amount of passenger miles its residents travel (infrastructure) and the vibrancy of its downtown area (quality of place).

A glance at the country's most economically healthy large metro areas underscores his point. Computer manufacturer Dell and the University of Texas anchor Austin's tech community. San Jose receives an influx of grads from places like Stanford and UC-Berkeley who want to work in Silicon Valley. Atlanta, home to Emory University and the Georgia Institute of Technology, is also the headquarters of UPS, CNN and AT&T Mobility, the largest cellular carrier in the United States.

To be sure, GMP is not the only method of measuring a metro area's economic vibrancy. Population growth, job growth, housing starts and personal income growth are all other factors to consider. However, we felt that an examination of the output of goods and services in a metro area was perhaps the purest method of determining how vibrant an economy will be several years down the road.

Statistics on the other factors, compiled for us by research firm Global Insight, supported the forecasts for GMP growth. Mobile, Austin, Port St. Lucie, Cape Coral, St. George and other regions with high GMP growth projections all appeared near the top of their lists.

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In the current economic climate, predictions for housing starts are open to the most uncertainty. Moody's forecasts take the current slowdown into consideration but do not account for a potential recession. A study compiled by Global Insight and released by the U.S. Conference of Mayors in November found that the most significant losses in real GMP were concentrated in California, though every state has taken a hit.

Several burgeoning metro areas barely missed our list, including Raleigh, N.C., San Antonio, and Atlantic City, N.J. But what about those near the bottom? Most are smaller metro areas in historical manufacturing centers in the Northeast and Midwest. Of the bigger metros Rochester, N.Y., Youngstown, Ohio, and Springfield, Mass., top the list.

They're also low for expected population growth. Why stay there when so many other urban centers are thriving?

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