Super Tuesday Coverage for Feb. 5

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR:  In Boulder, Colorado, after weeks of stumping, one of Barack Obama’s precinct captains is, at this hour, cautiously optimistic.  Caucuses close there in three hours there.  The problem is, for the precinct captain Neal Kornreich, bedtime is technically about four hours.  Saying something perhaps about the Obama campaign and definitely something about campaign 2008.  Obama precinct captain Neal Kornreich of Boulder, Colorado is 12 years old. 

That Barack Obama is surging, not even Hillary Clinton’s camp would deny.  But the exquisite and excruciating math of 22 states at once could underscore what one of his staffers said yesterday.  If only we had more time, more endorsements.  You stumping for me?  You stumping for me? 

For many Republicans, his would be an ideal candidacy, actual naval flyer, POW, projecting eminence, for others watching his puzzle pieces perhaps coming together tonight.  It’s like going to see Friday the 13^th movie.  John McCain versus a defiant Mitt Romney with Mike Huckabee holding the bouts. 

With Lester Holt in our exit poll virtual reality room and Norah O’Donnell with the state trends, with the analysis of Tim Russert from “Meet the Press,” Brian Williams of “NBC NIGHTLY NEWS,” Tom Brokaw, chief White House correspondent David Gregory, political director Chuck Todd, “Newsweek’s” Howard Fineman, Joe Scarborough, Pat Buchanan, Rachel Maddow and Eugene Roberts, with Andrea Mitchell and Kevin Corke at Clinton headquarters in New York, Lee Cowan and David Shuster with the Obama campaign in Chicago, Kelly O’Donnell and Tucker Carlson at McCain central in Phoenix, Ron Allen and John Yang at Romney headquarters in Boston, and Don Teague with the Huckabee campaign in Little Rock. 

This is MSNBC’s coverage of the 21 Republican primaries and caucuses and the 22 Democratic primaries and caucuses better known as super Tuesday. 

Good evening from MSNBC and NBC News world headquarters in New York.  Alongside Chris Matthews, I’m Keith Olbermann with Lester Holt tracking our exit polling for us throughout the evening from a virtual reality room, as you see there. 

Thanks for being with us.  And Chris, I guess we—we begin with one question tonight, Giants or Patriots. 

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR:  Well, we might have an upset tonight as well.  Let me just say, that tonight, no matter who wins, we’re going to have history made in America tonight on three directions.  One, perhaps the first woman nominee of either major political party, Hillary Clinton, of course.  Perhaps the first African-American nominee of either political party.  Perhaps the first maverick Republican since Teddy Roosevelt to be nominee of the Republican Party. 

And the first time ever, a really what seems to be close to a national primary, so when people go in November and vote and say, I wish we didn’t have such a terrible choice, now they have a participation in picking that person.  So close to picking a nominee before you can get to pick the president, which is a good start for the country.  A big night. 

OLBERMANN:  Before we get into the depths of the big night, is this the future?  Is this what we’re going to see?  Are we going to see more and more almost regionalization of our primaries?  Are they going to be bunched together like this or are we going to have this mad dashes that we’ve seen in the first month? 

MATTHEWS:  Well, I think that the political parties always try to tie it up.  The inside tries to keep the outside out and they screw it up.  Luckily for the American people they are not that smart.  The original plan of all this proportionality was to keep the rabble from the gate, to prevent an outsider from breaking the deal.  But what happens was it tends, perhaps, to slow down the establishment candidate in this case. 

Hillary Clinton going into this, perhaps won’t do as well.  Or it might turn out by 3:00 this morning that the outsider who went into this as an outsider will come out the insider, who could be Barack Obama.  Luckily they keep trying to rig it and it doesn’t quite work. 

OLBERMANN:  The people are smarter than the system… 

MATTHEWS:  Yes. 

OLBERMANN:  And us, and that’s encouraging.  Right now it is one down 42 to go.  We have a winner in West Virginia.  Well, the polls only closed six and a half hours ago on the Republican caucuses there.  Mike Huckabee the victor in an outcome that sent the Romney camp into paroxysms of anger against John McCain trying to paint Huckabee as a mere stalking horse or proxy for McCain.  Then there was a deal by which the Huckabee people got Ron Paul’s support after the first round of the caucuses in a trade for three delegates that he would hook in national convention. 

Now we’re going to have throughout the night a look at what’s at stake around the state, the hall of states, if you will, Norah O’Donnell manning that for us. 

Norah, good evening. 

NORAH O’DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT:  And good evening, Keith and Chris. 

And there is a great deal at stake tonight.  Because this is, as we’ve said, the closest thing to a national primary we’ve had, the single biggest primary day in United States history.  So let’s take a look at how it all breaks down.  And let’s start with the Republicans. 

It’s simple for them.  Twenty-one states are holding contests today.  Many of them, which are a - winner-take-all, and that means you get the most votes, you win all of that state’s delegates.  Pretty easy.  The Republican delegate count going in tonight, McCain has 93, Romney has 77, and Huckabee has 58.  And there are a total of 942 delegates up for grabs today.  You need 1,191 delegates to win the Republican nomination.  And I know it sounds like a lot of numbers we’re going through but these numbers are key tonight.  The number of delegates will decide who wins their party’s nomination. 

OK.  So let’s go to the Democrats now.  Twenty-two states are holding contest, including the biggies like California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey.  But here’s where it gets a little bit tricky on the Democratic side.  The Democratic delegates are awarded two ways.  Clinton and Obama will win some of the delegates based on how well they do statewide.  But they will also win most of their delegates based on how well they do in each congressional district.  And it could take a long time to gather those results from each congressional district.  So it’s going to be a long night for Democrats.  It’s going to be a long night at MSNBC.  But it’s certainly going to be very exciting to watch as these delegate numbers come in. 

Now let’s take a look at where it stands on the delegate count for the Democrats.  Barack Obama has 63, Hillary Clinton has 48, and there are a total of 1678 for grabs.  Keep in mind you need 2,025 to win the nomination.  We heard the Clinton campaign talking about today.  They are saying this is going all the way to the convention.  We’ll see.  This is going to be a very exciting night.  And as I mentioned earlier, we are hearing it is going to be a long one as well. 

Back to you guys. 

OLBERMANN:  We’re planning on it.  Thank you, Norah O’Donnell. 

Joining us now to get an opening analysis of the night, David Gregory, our chief White House correspondent for NBC News, and Tim Russert, of course, Washington bureau chief and moderator of “Meet the Press.” 

We’ll start with David.  Boy, it’s easy to say it’s important.  How about this, David, why is it important? 

DAVID GREGORY, NBC NEWS CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT:  Well, it’s important because while it’s not decisive on the Democratic side, it could have a lot to do with momentum going forward even if it’s a protracted contest.  It may, in fact, be decisive on the Republican side.  A few signs to look for, and I’m sure Tim will amplify on these, on the Republican side.  Are we going to see John McCain tonight consolidate conservatives?  He’s made the argument that he is a conservative who can unite the party.  Can he do it tonight on such a large mosaic, such a large tableau? 

Second, on the Democratic side, Barack Obama, can he change women’s minds tonight?  That’s the pitch he’s been making with some high-profile endorsements in California and elsewhere.  That’s the real house of Hillary Clinton.  He’s got to begin to take some of those votes away. 

Lastly, I’m very interested to see what’s motivating voters tonight.  Unlike the previous contest, we’re going to be in a big national conversation about what matters most.  Is it change, is it experience, is it the economy, is it the war?  We’ll learn a lot tonight. 

OLBERMANN:  David, thank you.  Tim Russert is now in place tonight.  Let’s start off with one of David’s points, Tim.  Republican unity - he talked about whether or not John McCain will get the opportunity to unify the Republican Party.  Doesn’t he first have to sort of tamp down the fires that have broken out, the back flames that have broken out in the Republican Party, people who desperately do not like him? 

TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF:  You’re right, Keith.  It’s a prairie fire, particularly with the conservative radio talk show people across the country.  And what they’re trying to do is urge voters, conservative voters to upset the apple cart, have Romney win California, have Romney win Missouri, have Romney win—his home state of Massachusetts and try to keep this debate going, keep this nomination fight going. 

The good thing for McCain is that his winner-take-all in many of these states and he has Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee siphoning off conservative votes from Mitt Romney.  So Romney needs to score some victories in order to keep this race alive.  But talk radio and other conservatives from the commentary have done a very, very effective job at least getting their message out.  Whether the voters listen, we’ll find out tonight. 

OLBERMANN:  And Romney’s people have already said siphon and worse about Huckabee relative to McCain. 

Tim Russert, we’ll get back to you.  David Gregory, we’ll get back to you. 

We have our first results, not results from the polls, mind you, results from our exit polls.  And for that inside one of the technological achievements of the millennium with Lester Holt inside the virtual reality room. 

Lester, good evening. 

LESTER HOLT, MSNBC ANCHOR:  Hey, Keith, good evening to you.  Behind this wall we’ve got a lot of people crunching the numbers.  This is where I will be, though, bringing them to you tonight.  In this hard fight Democratic contest, we’re talking Democrats right now, we’re getting our first good look at how voters today feel about the big issues.  And right off we can see from our exit poll that the biggest issue is the economy.  That’s been true throughout this primary season.  And on a super Tuesday it’s true for Democrats.  Nationwide 45 percent chose the economy over the war in Iraq or health care which came in a fairly low third. 

Now, as far as how Democratic primary voters today feel about the state of the economy, take a close look at these numbers.  These voters were just about as negative as they could possibly be.  An incredible 91 percent thought it was not good or poor.  Only about one in ten felt the economy was in good shape.  On other big issues for the Democrats, the tug-of-war over experience versus change.  Just over half say the quality most important is the candidate’s ability to bring about change.  Next on their list, named by about a quarter, is experience.  Now interestingly electability has not been the major issue with Democratic primary voters so far.  Only about one in ten say their choice hinged on who could defeat the Republican nominee in November. 

Now let’s look a bit more closely those voters who are focused on change.  Barack Obama has made this theme his own.  You’ve seen the signs behind him at all the events.  He got close to three-quarters of change voters with the other quarter going to Hillary Clinton.  With a field of Democratic candidates reduced to two, we asked primary voters who would make the best commander in chief of the U.S. Armed Forces.  And here it was Hillary Clinton who was the clear favorite.  The first woman candidate with a serious shot at winning the presidency beat out her male rival, look at these numbers, 50 percent to 35 percent. 

Keep in mind this at a time the nation is fighting on two fronts.  While Clinton wins that one, Obama is the preferred candidate on another quality that a president is expected to have by a 54 to 37 percent margin.  Democratic primary voters think Obama would be better able to bring the country together than Hillary Clinton. 

And Keith and Chris, we’re going to be back in just a bit.  We’ll show you what’s on the minds of Republican voters on this primary day today.  But now back to you. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, that’s two big victories, I think, in the polling.  We don’t know the numbers yet.  But two big victories for Barack because people who want change are going to him.  And secondly, people who want to bring the country together are going to him.  If this were Republican primary or caucus, I’d say who wants to be the best, who will be the best commander in chief, that would matter. 

I think with Democrats they are less interested who would be the better commander in chief.  I think they’re looking for unity and they’re looking for change.  And the one thing in these numbers that’s good and solid for Senator Clinton is the economy.  Everyone figures that she’s been good on bread and butter, kitchen table issues, whereas Obama has been more cosmic, more big picture. 

OLBERMANN:  But, Tim Russert, apparently, anything from the economy to electability, to commander in chiefness, it blanched - just pales utterly for the Democrats compared to this idea of change.  And when we - we’re asking somebody about a phrase like change and it happens to be part of one candidate’s catchphrase, if it’s the word you see behind him at every event, that’s overwhelmingly significant, is it not? 

RUSSERT:  It is.  It is.  But Hillary Clinton has gone out of her way to try to co-op the word “change” as well.  And Hillary Clinton voters will say change is important to them.  So we have to get inside those numbers and see some real votes before we can make a judgment as to whether or not some of the change agents didn’t say, well, here we can do it as well as Barack Obama. 

I do think, Keith and Chris, on the economy, Hillary Clinton tried very hard this last week, particularly, to point back to the two terms of Bill Clinton saying those were good times economically. 

MATTHEWS:  Right. 

RUSSERT:  And we can, in effect, bring you back to those.  Whether that—or not that argument resonated, I’m very anxious to find out. 

MATTHEWS:  But then they’re making the argument, Tim and Keith, that’s as good as it gets.  That’s a hard argument.  This is - it’s like the Jack Nicholson endorsement - that was great because he was the guy who’s in the movie ,”As Good As It Gets.”  And here she is saying, hey, we had it as good as it can get, let’s go back to the ‘90s, weren’t they swell?  And I think that is the question, Tim, do they think that’s as good as it gets?  If so, they’ll go back to the Clintons.  If they’ve got hopes that are rising higher because of this incredible oratory and promise of this guy Barack, then they’re out of business.  We’ll see. 

RUSSERT:  And does it bring back the notion of a co-presidency, because the role of Bill Clinton has been diminished so much since South Carolina, it is so, so striking to watch that play up. 

MATTHEWS:  Right. 

OLBERMANN:  David, so many numbers here, are we seeing in these sort of - the conflicts between the exit polls, the various facets, the ones that Lester Holt just went through, is this the essence of the debate within the Democratic Party and the debate about which of these two candidates it wants to line up behind? 

GREGORY:  I think it is.  And I think Tim underscored that - we’re going to want to see how these actual numbers play out.  Change being important.  How much of that can Barack Obama get?  Because this is a two-sided argument.  Yes, the voters want change.  But how do you get change?  Do—are you inspirational or do you have the experience in the ways of Washington to get it done? 

And I think you see on the commander in chief question, too, that’s ultimate sort of close your eyes and imagine a crisis scenario, who do you want in the White House?  Who’s ready on day one?  If the country is inspired and filled with hope and sort of moved by Barack Obama, is that good enough when he gets in there?  He may be on a learning curve. 

So I think that there is a real contrast that has emerged on the Democratic side where you have hope and inspiration, the kind of “I have a dream” versus “I have a plan,” as one Democratic strategist has put it, in the Hillary campaign, the Hillary Clinton campaign, a question of sobriety versus hope. 

MATTHEWS:  Right. 

OLBERMANN:  David Gregory, Tim Russert, thank you.  What’s the movie?  What’s the movie from the ‘60s?  “Advise & Consent” with the ailing vice president and I think he says, he’ll learn on the job, don’t worry about it, the office will make the man.  He goes, the world can go to hell in a hand basket before I’m big enough to see over the end of desk. 

MATTHEWS:  Hell of a movie, by the way. 

OLBERMANN:  It is indeed.  All right.  Let’s go around—we just endorsed another movie.  Let’s go to the campaigns.  Let’s start with Kevin Corke who is here in New York with the Clinton campaign. 

Kevin, good evening. 

KEVIN CORKE, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT:  Good evening to you, Keith.  Three E’s tonight: emotion, electability and experience.  Obviously, you’re going to hear the Clinton campaign continue to beat that drum and talk about experience.  Of course, the electability, some people say Barack Obama has that advantage because in a head to head, perhaps with a John McCain, he would get more independents. 

But there’s also the emotion of this particular race and you’re seeing a lot of it tonight.  And I’m also reminded, Keith, that this reminds me a lot of what we saw right before New Hampshire.  Remember, right before New Hampshire, there was that late surge by Barack Obama and a lot of pollsters said, hey look, he’s moved out in front.  And yet we saw that Hillary Clinton on the strength of women voters was able to get that victory. 

Also we learned after New Hampshire that there was a great number of absentee ballots.  In fact, I think I read that Clinton was three-to-one ahead on absentee ballots.  The campaign is suggesting to me tonight that could be the firewall that will help her not only hang on in some of these states where it’s getting rather close, but maybe give her that much-needed momentum moving forward, Keith. 

OLBERMANN:  Kevin Corke at the Clinton headquarters here in New York. 

One other note from there, Howard Wilson, the senior strategist for the Clinton campaign, in a conference call with reporters this afternoon saying, at least four separate times, the results tonight will be inconclusive.  That is covering the tracks to some degree. 

In a place where they may not be covering tracks quite so vehemently, David Shuster is at the Obama campaign headquarters in Chicago for us this evening. 

David, good evening. 

DAVID SHUSTER, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT:  Keith, good evening to you.  The Obama campaign is hoping for a draw, and to them, that means getting within maybe 75 or 100 delegates by the time the night is out, but also, perhaps, picking off a state that they thought several weeks ago Clinton would win, California, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey.  They want to try to pick one of those off. 

But again, Keith, their issue here is if they can make this nomination battle a war of attrition, the Obama campaign is convinced they can grind Hillary Clinton down.  In terms of fundraising, $32 million that they raised in January compared to $13 million for Hillary Clinton.  They can outspend her now in some of the states moving forward.  The key for them is to get beyond super Tuesday where they said that they never thought they would win more delegates, get it to be a sort of draw on the eyes of the media and the national public, and move on.  If they can do that, that will be a very successful night. 

Now as you can hear, they are testing the sound system.  Keith and Chris, back to you. 

OLBERMANN:  Band, band practice. 

MATTHEWS:  Thank you, David.  Let’s go right now for a view from the Romney campaign.  We turn to NBC’s John Yang up in Boston. 

John? 

JOHN YANG, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT:  Chris, the Romney campaign is hoping to harness conservative disaffection with John McCain.  They see this now as a two-man race between themselves and John McCain.  Not the race they envisioned at this point.  They thought it would be Rudy Giuliani now.  But they’re looking to southern states tonight, states like Georgia, Tennessee, to some extent Missouri, to some extent areas of California, like Orange County, the Central Valley around Stockton and Fresno, to see if they can draw those conservatives away from John McCain. 

The problem this campaign is facing in many of those places they are competing for those conservative votes with Huckabee.  And they see Huckabee staying in and sort of drawing votes away from them.  And it’s a tough problem for them as they try to move ahead.  Chris? 

MATTHEWS:  Thank you very much, John Yang, up in Boston.  Coming up, we’ll talk to strategists from both the Clinton and the Obama campaigns on how they are feeling this super Tuesday evening.  More numbers from the exit polls.  And at the top of the hour, our first big contest.  The polls close in Georgia.  The first real numbers in what will be a very busy night. 

And we want to welcome our viewers for the first time joining us from across southern Africa.  As someone who spent two years teaching in Swaziland, let me say, (speaking in foreign language), we’re coming to you live from our MSNBC global headquarters right now in New York City. 

You’re watching MSNBC live coverage of super Tuesday. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS:  Welcome back to MSNBC’s live coverage of super Tuesday.  Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick is supporting Barack Obama up there in Massachusetts and Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa of Los Angeles is a Clinton backer all the way. 

I want to go to Deval Patrick for the first closing tonight.  If you have to analyze a state which you’ve been elected in, Governor, tell me the kind of people that are voting for your guy and the kind of people that are sticking with the Clintons.  Is there a way of describing them or judging how they’re going to vote? 

GOV. DEVAL PATRICK (D), MASSACHUSETTS:  You know what?  I think it’s not quite as simple as that, Chris, due respect to your question.  I think that there is a broad appetite for a change not just in ideas but in our politics.  And in an excitement about supporting someone like Barack Obama who has actually been a change agent, who has delivered that kind of change both in the halls of power and down in the neighborhoods.  I think a lot of political establishment is organized around Senator Clinton, and she is a capable candidate to be sure. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, let’s not rush to judgment on that one.  You’ve got yourself.  Senators Kennedy and Kerry all backing Barack.  Isn’t that the establishment in the commonwealth of Massachusetts? 

PATRICK:  You know, I would say the other night at an event that I’m going to have to stop talking about the establishment as if they are someone else.  I’m the elected governor now, so I guess I’m part of it. 

MATTHEWS:  You know what?  It’s a lot more fun to be anti-establishment.  I discovered in my life. 

Let me go to the mayor - Mayor Villaraigosa.  Out there I’ve seen from the beginning the Clinton people, when they saw they’re up against Barack and it looked like they might lose in New Hampshire, they merely said, let’s think Latino, let’s think Hispanic, and they said let’s go where we could get some votes.  They headed out—Senator Clinton headed right out to California.  Is that her stronghold, your community? 

MAYOR ANTONIO VILLARAIGOSA (D), LOS ANGELES:  Well, we’ve always had a 50-state strategy.  We have a campaign organization throughout the country. 

California has always been important from the very beginning.  We’ve been here

for a long time, nearly a year.  And yes, in California, the Latino vote is

important.  But as Deval said, and I want to say hello to him, he’s a good

friend… 

PATRICK:  How are you, Antonio? 

VILLARAIGOSA:  …and yet we’re reaching out to a broad cross section of the California electorate.  We’re fighting for every vote and every demographic group in every part of the state. 

MATTHEWS:  Do you feel that the candidates have had enough exposure in California?  I mean this is so liquidity split.  Twenty-two states in one day. 

VILLARAIGOSA:  Yes. 

MATTHEWS:  I know California wanted to move up.  But do you feel like you’re getting a piece of the action or just getting a once-over from these candidates? 

VILLARAIGOSA:  Well, I think all of the states feel that there was a lot of attention in Iowa and New Hampshire.  That’s the way it’s always been.  But we would have liked to have had a candidate, certainly Senator Hillary Clinton, here in California.  But they know her.  They trust her.  She’s been to California for many years now.  And there’s a great deal of support for her here in this state. 

MATTHEWS:  If it was Bill Clinton on the ballot in California today, would there be any question as to who would win? 

VILLARAIGOSA:  I think Senator Clinton is going to win here in California. 

MATTHEWS:  Oh, you don’t like that question, do you?  Mayor, you hate that question. 

VILLARAIGOSA:  And I think… 

MATTHEWS:  I know you’re going way off in the other direction. 

VILLARAIGOSA:  And I think President Clinton would win in California.

MATTHEWS:  Let me ask you a simpler question.  This is Tim Russert again.  If Bill Clinton was on the ballot, would he win easily tonight?  Yes or no. 

PATRICK:  You’re asking me? 

MATTHEWS:  Yes.  I’m asking the mayor. 

VILLARAIGOSA:  I think he would - he would win if Hillary wasn’t on the ballot. 

MATTHEWS:  OK.  Let me go to Deval Patrick.  Governor, thank you.  Tonight, Massachusetts, will it be a battle, as somebody said, between the Starbucks crowd, the elite college crowd, the gowns against their - the townees, those who go to Dunkin’ Donuts?  Is this a class division, sir? 

PATRICK:  No.  You know what?  In fact, part of what this campaign is about, and what Barack Obama is about, is breaking down all those barriers.  Those sort of—that shorthand that we use to segment and really set ourselves against each other. 

MATTHEWS:  Right. 

PATRICK:  I was with a woman out in Worcester, in the central part of our state, on Saturday, who came to the podium in a rally of several hundred people.  She said she had until recently been a registered Republican.  She voted twice for George Bush, once for Mitt Romney.  She was going to cast an educated vote this time and vote for Barack Obama. 

MATTHEWS:  I’ve heard a lot of that.  But let me ask you, what’s better coffee, Dunkin’ Donuts or Starbucks?  How about for the price? 

PATRICK:  I like the coffee strong enough to stand your spoon up in it.  So whoever got the strongest coffee is (INAUDIBLE). 

MATTHEWS:  OK.  Mr. Mayor, Governor, thank you, gentlemen. 

VILLARAIGOSA:  Thank you. 

MATTHEWS:  It’s great to have you in.  You’re the heavyweights of our country.  Thanks for being on tonight. 

VILLARAIGOSA:  Thanks so much. 

PATRICK:  Thank you. 

MATTHEWS:  Up next an overview of this historic battle for the Democrats from NBC’s Tom Brokaw.  You’re watching MSNBC’s live coverage of super Tuesday. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN:  Twenty-nine minutes plus until the polls close in Georgia.  We may get the first characterization of something, large in the coverage of Super Tuesday.  This is MSNBC’s continuing coverage of the 22 and 21 primaries and caucuses, one party to the other.  No matter who wins on the Democratic side, history obviously will be made.  Either a woman or an African-American as the nominee.  Time now to bring in NBC’s Tom Brokaw to go into a discussion about this.  Tom, good evening. 

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR:  Good evening, Keith. 

OLBERMANN:  We were on with Joe Biden a couple of weeks ago and he said, it had been the dream of his lifetime to vote for a woman or an African-American for president.  He just didn’t think he’d wind up, as he said, squeezed out by the process.  It was still breathtaking for him.  With all the sturm und drang, and really some below the belt stuff at earlier points in the Clinton/Obama fight, has this epic quality, either way it goes, sort of been overlooked in the heat of this nominating process? 

BROKAW:  It has and hasn’t.  At the same time, there’s also a kind of a generational split here, because Hillary Clinton is a classic Baby Boomer.  And as you know, Barack Obama has been running against the 1960s.  We have that going on as well.  I have said from the beginning that while both of them will play to their gender and race strength, in the final determination I think it will not be settled by either race or by gender. 

It seems to me, going by today, Keith, at least, that the kind of conventional wisdom in this case probably is correct, that Obama is still attracting new voters, and Hillary seems not to have a lot of game left, if you use a sports metaphor.  What she has to do is count on her strong organization around the country, and hope that the clock will run out in her favor. 

A big piece of the action this past week or so has been the endorsement of Senator Ted Kennedy.  Having spent some time in California over the past five days, I happen to think that maybe Caroline Kennedy, her cousin, Maria Shriver, the state’s first lady, our former colleague here, and Oprah Winfrey may have been more important than the senator, because it did appear that they were beginning to peel off some woman votes from the Hillary side. 

OLBERMANN:  The other aspect about this—I’m wondering if we’re necessarily close to this forest, to be able to count these trees and try to analyze what the rings say.  Please stop me before I get further into this analogy. 

It struck me today.  It really hit home, no matter who is participating, and looking just as much at the Republican side as the Democratic side, this is one, already, obviously—one of those turning point in history American elections.  If there was any doubt about this, about an hour ago, hour and a half ago, watching the late news from London, it was the lead story, the primary British anchor is in Washington right now.  The first ten minutes of their newscast, the last five minutes of their newscast were about primaries. 

This is epic.  I’m wondering if we’re losing the perspective on that, too. 

BROKAW:  I think it’s the most important election in this country since 1968, probably.  We are at war in two countries.  We have been a controversial country in the rest of the world for the past eight years or so.  We are still the most powerful democracy and industrial power in the world, the most powerful country, the place that everyone turns to to see what we’re going to do next. 

We have this interesting cast of characters, more diverse than we’ve ever had before.  So it only makes sense that the rest of the world is paying attention, because the United States drives so much of the rest of the world.  We do seem to be in for a sea change here. 

I think, domestically at least, this time, people are playing outside their lives.  You’re finding more Republicans willing to cross the line and vote for a Democrat, more independents who are either willing to go for a Democrat or for Republican.  I said a couple of weeks ago, I thought it was the end of rigid dogma this time.  Folks are looking for solutions and for answers to all this. 

OLBERMANN:  Amen, end to rigid dogma at all corners of the political landscape.  Tom Brokaw and perspective, as we start out here, really the beginning of Super Tuesday, not even the beginning of the end.  Thank you, Tom. 

BROKAW:  OK, Keith.  

OLBERMANN:  Up next, we focus in on the Republican race, surrogates from the leaders, analysis of what we’ve seen so far.  Also, from the exit polls, more with Lester Holt.  This is MSNBC’s continuing coverage of Super Tuesday.  More after this. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS:  Welcome back to MSNBC’s continuing Super Tuesday coverage.  In just over 20 minutes, at the top of the hour, we’ll get our first results of the night when polls close in Georgia.  Then at 8:00 Eastern, polls close in ten states, including some of the biggies, New Jersey and Massachusetts. 

Let’s turn to David Gregory, chief White House correspondent for NBC News, with more on the fight between McCain and Romney. 

GREGORY:  It’s interesting.  This has flared up again today over this issue of conservatives attacking John McCain for not being conservative enough.  It’s been all over conservative talk radio that John McCain has betrayed the Republican party, stabbed it in the back, and now he wants everybody to fall in line and coalesce around him. 

So, this has been going on between McCain and Rush Limbaugh.  It’s Bob Dole, the former leader of the Senate for the Republicans, former presidential candidate, who wrote Rush Limbaugh a letter yesterday, saying, basically, John McCain has got the conservative credentials.  He’s always been behind us on some of the big issues in the Republican party, at least when I was in the Senate. 

That happened.  Then it was Mitt Romney who came out saying, well, I think today Romney—Bob Dole’s the last guy you want writing such a letter for you.  I asked McCain about that.  It was something McCain brought up on his own during an interview earlier today on MSNBC.  Watch the reaction. 

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN ®, ARIZONA:  Someone asked Governor Romney about the letter Bob Dole wrote on my behalf to Rush Limbaugh.  And he said that would be the last person he would want writing a letter on his behalf.  Governor Romney disparaging and American hero, our leader, our nominee for president of the United States?  That’s disgraceful.  I think Governor Romney should apologizes to Bob Dole for that comment.  He’s a great American.  For Governor Romney, who has never had any military experience, to disparage the service and courage of an American hero, I think is disgraceful. 

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GREGORY:  Pretty strong words from John McCain.  There was a window there in that answer to some of the personal animosity that’s going on between John McCain and Mitt Romney.  Certainly from McCain’s point of view, he doesn’t have a lot of affection for Romney.  It came out in that answer. 

MATTHEWS:  Have we ever seen so many fouls called in a game.  Thank you, David Gregory.  Focusing on the Republican face-off between John McCain and Mitt Romney, we’re joined right now by surrogates of both campaigns; former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, who is Pennsylvania governor.  He is the national co-chairman of the McCain campaign.  Bay Buchanan, sister of someone very famous, is senior adviser to the Romney campaign. 

Governor, is this the wrap-up time for your candidate?  Is John McCain going to win it big enough tonight to blow out Romney and send him home to think about another business plan for something else. 

TOM RIDGE, MCCAIN CAMPAIGN CO-CHAIR:  Chris, I think we’re going to do very, very well in the major states, New York, New Jersey, Illinois and several others.  California is still a tossup.  It’s pretty clear that Governor Romney intends on staying in probably longer than this evening.  He’s invested, as well he’s entitled to, millions and millions of dollars in the campaign in California.  I suspect that while we’re going to do very, very well tonight, I suspect the campaign will continue in the next several weeks.  

MATTHEWS:  Bay Buchanan, is California the key to the future campaign for Governor Romney? 

BAY BUCHANAN, ROMNEY CAMPAIGN ADVISER:  You mean a future campaign or this particular campaign? 

MATTHEWS:  No.  Will he continue if he wins in California?  I’m trying to find a way of judging this. 

BUCHANAN:  Absolutely.  No question California is key.  We need—the key, though, is the delegates.  If we can make certain we get enough delegates to hold up John McCain from going over the top, you can see the momentum in the last few days is clearly with Mitt Romney.  Across the country, conservatives are moving.  They recognize he’s the best candidate.  He will stand for them and that John McCain is absolutely unacceptable. 

So, if we can hold McCain up from going over the top, I think as the days go past, there’s going to be more and more momentum and John McCain is going to have a harder time as he moves to the convention. 

MATTHEWS:  Is Mike Huckabee the dog in the manger?  Is he simply sucking up conservative votes that won’t do anybody any good except John McCain?  Bay? 

BUCHANAN:  Absolutely.  Absolutely.  All Mike Huckabee is is this ambitious little side kick of John McCain’s.  He’s out there just to throw everything he can to John McCain.  He only beats up on—whatever he does, it’s negative against Mitt Romney.  You know what he’s done, Chris?  It’s an absolute outrageous to somebody as committed to the unborn as I am, and as committed as he claims to be—what he’s doing is he is putting the unborn aside.  He’s putting the sanctity of marriage aside, so that he can get himself a place on a ticket with a guy who will not stand up for the unborn, will not give us the judges, and will not defend and fight for the sanctity of marriage with a Constitutional Amendment. 

MATTHEWS:  Is it true, Governor Ridge, that Mike Huckabee is playing Robin to John McCain’s Batman?  Is that how you put this ticket together?

RIDGE:  You’d have to ask Governor Huckabee that.  This whole notion that John McCain’s not a consistent conservative, particularly given the recent conversion of Governor Romney to some of these conservative principles that John McCain has held for 25 years, but Governor Romney got to them two or three years ago—and particularly in light of the fact that Bob Dole and John McCain and people like Jack Kemp, really are at the core of the Republican conservative movement for 20 plus years, have to put up with this notion that they are not quite conservative enough from somebody whose economic record in Massachusetts, leading the state to a point it’s like third in the migration of people out and third last in job creation, is kind of an interesting approach for the governor to take. 

OLBERMANN:  Can I throw a question for you, Bay Buchanan, about what Senator McCain said to David Gregory, that clip that we just played.  Was there a strategic mistake made by your campaign in dragging former Senator Dole into this equation in those terms? 

BUCHANAN:  No, it’s one more example of the kind of deceit and mischaracterization that John McCain has used continually in this campaign to deliberately distort the record and the words of Governor Romney.  When you suggest and sit there, governor, and even suggest to conservatives across this country, as they listen, that John McCain has anything to do with the conservative movement in the last eight years, that also is to belie the truth, is to misrepresent. 

That man was on the wrong side of tax cuts.  Conservatives are for tax cuts.  He was on the wrong side of amnesty.  Conservatives oppose amnesty.  This man wouldn’t even fight to secure the borders of the United States.  He fought to keep the borders open, only figured that one out after a few months in this race. 

No, this guy is no conservative.  He broke down the possibility for George Bush to put conservative judges on the court.  John McCain has been on the wrong side of every major battle the conservative movement has had. 

MATTHEWS:  Governor, do you want to respond to that riff?  That’s a strong level of indictment against John McCain.   

RIDGE:  Let me start with the conservative judges on the court, Bay.  Without the Gang of 14 that you and some of your colleagues are beating up on the senator on, you would not have two of the most conservative judges on the court.  One of the interesting things about your candidate—and he’s had a remarkable life.  But I do think that he discovered that it’s far easier to make money in the private sector than it is to create jobs, as I mentioned before, in the public sector. 

The bottom line is that nobody is quite good enough for Mitt Romney.  He’s gone after Huckabee.  He’s gone after Senator McCain.  Why can’t this be a debate about real issues. 

BUCHANAN:  Gone after? 

RIDGE:  The fact of the matter is immigration is a tough problem.  It’s a problem that needs resolution.  For all those who said no, the status quo remains.  You have de facto amnesty.  Why don’t we elect a president who says it’s a tough problem.  It’s a complex problem.  It’s a controversial problem.  I’m going to try to solve it.  That’s the kind of president we need, not somebody that waffles on issues and goes to Michigan—he will do whatever he can to capture votes. 

MATTHEWS:  I catch the drift here.  Bay, can I ask you a question; is this war in Iraq a conservative war? 

BUCHANAN:  Conservative war? 

MATTHEWS:  Yes. 

BUCHANAN:  No, conservatives don’t do preemptive wars. 

MATTHEWS:  Thank you.  Now I know where you stand.  I’ve always believed in your thoughtful process.  Thank you, Bay Buchanan.  Thank you, Governor Tom Ridge.  Bay is not totally in line with these people. 

Time to introduce our panel for tonight, the host of MSNBC’s “MORNING JOE,” Joe Scarborough himself, MSNBC political analyst Pat Buchanan, brother of the aforementioned sister, the “Washington Post’s” Eugene Robinson, and Air America’s Rachel Maddow, the new rival of Pat Buchanan for air time.  Thank you, Joe. 

JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR:  Lots of luck.  We have a lot to talk about.  Let’s start with what you are looking for tonight.  Pat, what are you looking for tonight? 

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST:  What I’m looking for is Barack Obama’s white vote in Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas.  Can he raise it above that 22, 24 percent he got in Florida and South Carolina?  If he can, it tells you this surge is dead serious.  If he can’t, it means he’s going to lose the south.  He’ll lose all 11 states in the general election. 

Secondly, looks for the Hispanic vote for Barack Obama in New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado.  This will show you the Teddy Kennedy affect.  If Barack Obama—he has got to move that above the one-third he got in Nevada, or I think it will be ceding those four states in the southwest, which are swing states in any general election. 

If Barack can’t break through in those two areas, then we’re back to a red-blue race, if Barack is nominated. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Obviously, Barack Obama does very poorly with Hispanics out west.  At least he has thus far.  Gene, what are you looking for? 

EUGENE ROBINSON, “THE WASHINGTON POST”:  I’m looking first at Georgia.  Georgia is the state where John Edwards probably would have done well.  I’m looking for where his voters go, to Clinton or Obama, especially white men, a group among whom Edwards did very well.  Neither Obama or Clinton did that well in South Carolina.  Let’s see how they do tonight. 

Then I’m looking at Massachusetts to see if the Kennedy magic is still there.  It’s a state in which Hillary Clinton was way ahead for a long time.  Now Obama has apparently caught up.  There was a big endorsement of—the state’s first family is behind Obama.  So let’s see if it works. 

SCARBOROUGH:  All right.  Rachel, what are you looking for tonight? 

RACHEL MADDOW, AIR AMERICA RADIO:  For Georgia, we’re looking at 12 minutes until maybe some results from Georgia.  On the Republican side, I’m looking to see how well Mike Huckabee does.  If he gets a solid third of the vote, or if he even places second, I think Mitt Romney is going to be cursing the name of that ambitious little side kick, as Bay Buchanan called him, all night. 

In terms of the Democratic side of things, Hillary Clinton really ought to get stopped by Barack Obama in Georgia.  I think if she’s within ten points of Obama in Georgia, then he may be having a hard time. 

SCARBOROUGH:  The two things I’m looking for both come out of Georgia.  I agree with you all.  The first thing is, a lot of talk this past week about conservatives and whether they are going to rise up and stop the McCain movement towards the nomination.  If John McCain wins by five percentage points, ten percentage points in Georgia, it’s over.  Conservatives haven’t come out.  They haven’t rallied behind Mitt Romney.  It’s McCain’s nomination.  We’ll see that throughout the night. 

On the other side, I agree, Barack Obama needs to win big in Georgia.  Or else we may be looking at another last-minute surge like New Hampshire that didn’t pan out. 

Pat, I want to talk to you about Bob Dole.  It’s very interesting, when I heard that Bob Dole had written—Bob Dole, a guy I like, respect—that I heard he wrote a letter to Rush Limbaugh in John McCain’s defense, I laughed, because I’ve been suggesting that John McCain is going to be the Bob Dole of 2008.  You wouldn’t want Bob Dole writing to Rush Limbaugh.  It has nothing to do with war service.  Does it, Pat?

P. BUCHANAN:  I don’t know why Bob would do such a thing, step into this battle the way he has.  Bob Dole has a consistent conservative voting record.  He’s not a leader of the conservative movement.  He never has been.  To do this on behalf of McCain is to get right in the middle of the fight.  I do think McCain went overboard when he started bringing up the war record of Mitt Romney and all the rest of the stuff.  He overreacted. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Why is McCain overreacting?  Why is he lying about Mitt Romney’s record when he’s leading? 

P. BUCHANAN:  You’re exactly right.  They’re getting under his skin.  He’s fighting back as though he is somebody going down for the third time.  So I think he’s not helping himself with this.  He ought to play the front-runner and dismiss this stuff, and get up and move on the high road. 

SCARBOROUGH:  We’ll talk about that some more.  Also, Keith, we’ll talk about the little ambitious guy, is that what --  

P. BUCHANAN:  Ambitious little side kick.

SCARBOROUGH:  The ambitious little side kick, Mike Huckabee, who did the deal for his big man in West Virginia earlier, in just a little bit.  Keith, for now, back to you. 

OLBERMANN:  Thank you, Joe.  Pat, have Bay trademark that while she can still make the money off of it.  Let’s take a look at what we’re learning from the exit polls, specifically on this; what issues drove Republican voters.  Lester Holt is covering all of the exit polling for us and is back with that now. Lester?

HOLT:  All right, Chris and Keith, we looked at the Democrats last half hour.  We’re getting a look at what’s moving Republicans as they went to the polls this Super Tuesday.  What we’re seeing is that, for Republicans, the issue they felt most important to the nation was the same one that resonated with the Democrats.  Take a look, perhaps no surprise after what we’ve seen this primary season, it’s the economy that’s most important for these voters.  It was chosen by 40 percent of the GOP voters. 

But just down the list, 22 percent named illegal immigration.  Just about as many chose the war in Iraq.  As far as how these voters feel the economy is doing, they are a bit more optimistic than their Democratic counterparts, who were overwhelmingly negative.  Just over half of Republican primary voters, 56 percent, thought the economy was doing poorly.  So while a majority are not pleased with the economy, they are feeling fairly good in general about the Bush administration, and what this president has accomplished; 64 percent give Mr. Bush overall positive marks on his job performance. 

He also got a pretty strong endorsement of his handling of the war.  Among the GOP voters nationwide, almost three out of four approve of the way the war in Iraq is being conducted.  As far as what these voters want to see in their next president, the most important quality by far, a person in the Oval Office who shares their values.  That was top for 47 percent of GOP primary voters.  Most of the rest split between experience and a candidate who says what he believes. 

Again, as for electability, like the Democrats, they did not feel it was as important to choose a candidate just because they felt he could beat the other side in November, an interesting figure.  As the polls close, we’ll be back with some more insight on why voters cast their votes for particular candidates.  A lot more to talk about this evening.  Right now, Keith and Chris, back to you. 

OLBERMANN:  Lester Holt with exit polling.  Thank you, we’ll talk to you shortly.  Chris?

MATTHEWS:  Michelle Bernard is with the conservative group Independent Women’s Voice.  I guess we’re looking tonight for a big question, whether women will do what they did in New Hampshire, Michelle, and back Hillary? 

MICHELLE BERNARD, INDEPENDENT WOMEN’S VOICE:  I really cannot wait to see what’s going to happen tonight.  My argument all along has been that women are not a monolithic voting bloc.  I’m hoping that the nation’s women voters tonight will prove me correct.  I think that we’re going to see women voting for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama based solely on generational differences. 

There is a whole group of women, I’ll say aged 60 and above, who will tell you, for example, that they graduated Harvard Law School first in their class and could only get jobs as legal secretaries.  I think for a great number of those women, they will vote for Hillary no matter what, because it is a statement for them. 

I think for other women, for whom sex discrimination they feel has been non-existent, they are going to look with wide open eyes.  They’re going to look at the candidates.  They’re going to look at who they trust.  They’re going to be looking for change.  I think a great deal of those women are going to vote for Barack Obama. 

MATTHEWS:  Somebody said the other day, it’s a battle between voting for your mother, if you’re a woman, and voting for your daughter. 

BERNARD:  Yes, Absolutely.  I think most women are going to vote for their daughters. 

MATTHEWS:  Let me ask you about this values question on the latest poll we got from Lester Holt.  The fact that voters in the Republican primaries throughout he country today, in 21 contests, including caucuses, are saying they voted their values.  It doesn’t strike me that that means they voted for John McCain or at least not happily. 

BERNARD:  No, I don’t think they voted for John McCain.  I’ve got to tell you, the numbers I find perplexing and really, really quite confusing, because the poll said 64 percent of Republican voters in exit polls are saying they are satisfied with President Bush.  If that number holds correct, it really means that social conservatives at this point in time—again, it’s just a snapshot in time—but social conservatives are in a minority of the Republican party. 

Social conservatives have been very unhappy with President Bush.  We’ve seen a huge expansion of government under this administration.  There are people who are very unhappy with the Iraq war, with the economy and even with the new budget.  So it will be very interesting to see who—how many of these disaffected voters do, in fact, vote for John McCain because they are moderates or vote for John McCain because he is the antithesis of President Bush. 

MATTHEWS:  Thank you very much, Michelle Bernard. 

OLBERMANN:  As we wait to march into Georgia with those first numbers, NBC News political director Chuck Todd joins us now with a couple of pearls of wisdom to look for this evening.  Chuck. 

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR:  Keith, I think the way to look at this geographically—let’s start on the Democratic side, starting from east to west.  The two big states early this evening I think to watch for are going to be New Jersey and Massachusetts.  These were two states that Hillary Clinton was counting on as sort of base states.  Clearly, Senator Obama has been trying to penetrate her lead there a little bit. 

If these are states that we’re not calling early, then she might have a long night.  This is certainly a couple of places that Obama would love to steal a victory here.  We’ll find out in a little bit. 

Moving across the nation, obviously Missouri; this is going to be a big one.  This is the ultimate swing state in general elections.  It’s turning into the ultimate swing state in this primary.  Literally, the state is very coastal on the two coasts of Missouri, Kansas City, St. Louis, that’s good areas for Obama.  In Missouri, the middle part of the state, that’s been good for Clinton. 

Of course, the two big ones tonight are going to be California and Arizona on the west coast.  These are going to be the two states where we find out did Obama improve on this Hispanic number.  Did he do better than what he has been doing, that 15 to 20 percent.  I think that’s obviously going to be later tonight.  That’s what could make this a very long night but a very interesting one. 

On the Republican side, doing that same thing, I think there’s sort of three ways of looking at the map.  With the Republicans, you’ve got the southern states, right.  What is the Mike Huckabee affect in the south?  Does he cost Mitt Romney—I did some back of the envelope math -- 168 delegates he may have cost Mitt Romney there.  Then, the two other big ones, California and Massachusetts.  Why?  Did John McCain not spend enough time in California and spend too much time in Massachusetts, trying to stick a needle in Romney. 

OLBERMANN:  Chuck Todd playing ring toss at the weather map.  We’ll get back to you later on.  When we return, we’re just minutes away from the first big result of this Super Tuesday night.  Polls in Georgia will close in two minutes and 30 seconds.  Chris and I will return right then with the results. 

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR:  Here we go.  It’s 7:00 p.m. Eastern and the polls are closed in the state of Georgia.  Our first state of Super Tuesday night.  NBC News can project now that when all the votes are counted in Georgia, Barack Obama is the winner on the Democratic side. 

On the Republican side, it’s too close to call on what is shaping up to be a tight, catch this, three-way race involving John McCain, Mitt Romney and Governor Mike Huckabee.  I’m Chris Matthews alongside Keith Olbermann. 

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR:  And let’s head out to Obama’s campaign headquarters, reaction, one for one tonight apparently. 

David Shuster, good evening in Chicago. 

DAVID SHUSTER, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT:  Keith, good evening to you.  The reaction is going to be somewhat muted.  They are, of course, relieved that they won Georgia.  But this is a state that they had been counting on for weeks.  A large African-American base for Barack Obama there.  He had spent some time there, a big organization.  A lot of spillover from South Carolina, of course, Barack Obama won so strongly in South Carolina. 

So they had expected to do very well in Georgia.  I suppose some relief now.  And then, of course, Keith, as we were talking about last night, now the question is the delegate count.  Out of the 87 pledged delegates, how do they do in each of these congressional districts where there were three or four delegates at stake?  Did they get beyond 68 percent to essentially get three out of the four delegates or all of the vagaries of the math.  That’s what they are going to be pouring through over the next half an hour, 45 minutes. 

But a sense of relief that they can strike Georgia off their list.  That is a state they thought they could win.  That is sort of now pushed aside.  And now of course they are looking ahead at some of the more battleground states like New Jersey, like Massachusetts, some of the states that Chuck Todd was referring to a few minutes ago—Keith. 

OLBERMANN:  David, do they have an expectation of how much they have to win that by where it’s not a moral victory for Hillary Clinton as we pointed out in the last hour? 

SHUSTER:  Keith, they were hoping that in some of those congressional districts that Barack Obama would get between 65 and 70 percent of the vote there.  Again, because of the vagaries of the Democratic rules, in some of the districts, if you can get 67 percent, 68 percent, you get that extra delegate. 

Clearly they were going congressional district by congressional district and over the last few days trying to figure out not just in Georgia but across the country, where can they put in those extra radio or television ads, where can they possibly pick up that extra delegate by getting the number, say, above 67 percent. 

So they are not doing to know for a while exactly whether it paid off in Georgia.  But that was something of course they were concerned about.  They wanted to run up the score in some of these districts to try to pick up these extra delegates in places like Georgia where they were convinced that they would run very strong tonight—Keith. 

OLBERMANN:  David Shuster at Obama headquarters in Chicago.  Our first result of the night, and it’s not even decisive.  Let’s now turn to David Gregory, chief White House correspondent of NBC News. 

David, more on this? 

DAVID GREGORY, NBC CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT:  Well, you have to

look inside the numbers here, Keith.  And for Barack Obama, he was looking for African-Americans and young people.  And our initial exit poll data, we’ll wait for the final numbers, looks like he got both of those categories very decisively.  If you were between 18 and 44, that vote broke strongly for Obama.  And among African-Americans, again, strongly for Barack Obama, a southern-based state, where both he and Hillary Clinton were competing hard for the African-American vote. 

Also we are going to want to watch, as we did in South Carolina, white men.  Again, initial data indicating very competitive with Hillary Clinton, was Barack Obama, maybe even with an advantage there.  We’ll look at the final numbers.  That will be something that we look at throughout the southern states as well. 

On the Republican race—side, rather, we see a three-way race here.  And this is really the story for the night.  Mike Huckabee very much in this race.  The South is where he wants to make some noise.  He siphons votes away from Mitt Romney, is the sort of anti-McCain vote.  But in this case, it’s actually a three-way race and Huckabee could end up coming out on top. 

So this is still very difficult to call on the Republican side. 

OLBERMANN:  David, one more question about the Democrats before we let you go.  This—I’m only going to read this right off the Associated Press and ask you if this statement—let’s look at it as a political reality and a political campaign’s reaction to a reality as opposed to try to take the charge out of this. 

Let me just read this and you tell me if this perception by itself would be a problem from Georgia.  This is the Associated Press story on the primary in Georgia.  It’s Obama’s second straight southern victory, like an earlier win in South Carolina, it was, quote: “built on a wave of black votes.” 

Is that trouble if that perception is allowed to stand? 

GREGORY:  Well, it is.  But this is going to be a long night.  And certainly Barack Obama does not want a narrow appeal.  But he will certainly point to strength among white male voters, for instance, among young voters as well.  This is going to be a base of support.  But he wants to demonstrate wider appeal.  We’ll look closely for that.  And he knows that he needs that. 

Don’t forget the South Carolina story.  You remember that Bill Clinton statement, by saying, well, Jesse Jackson did well in South Carolina as well.  In other words, he’s just an African-American candidate with that sort of appeal, you look into the interior of the country, Idaho, Minnesota, where there’s not very large African-American populations, and Barack Obama has been running strong, that’s where he will try to belie that perception. 

OLBERMANN:  David Gregory, great thanks.

MATTHEWS:  Now let’s get more from our exit poll on how Barack Obama did win in Georgia.  And for that we go to Lester Holt.

LESTER HOLT, NBC CORRESPONDENT:  All right.  Chris and Keith, our exit poll tells the story of how Barack Obama won an easy victory in that state.  It starts with the makeup of Georgia’s Democratic primary electorate.  Black voters today made up 52 percent of the voters statewide.  That’s almost as great a share as we saw in South Carolina where there were 55 percent of total. 

The African-American vote was expected to go heavily to Barack Obama.  And according to our exit poll data, that is exactly what happened.  Obama captured 86 percent of the black vote in Georgia with Clinton getting only 13 percent. 

But the big difference was among white voters.  Today the Illinois senator got 43 percent of the white Democratic vote in Georgia, significantly better than the 24 percent he received in last month’s South Carolina and Florida primaries. 

Also, while Obama has repeatedly done well with young voters in the Peachtree State, his appeal was not limited to that age group.  In fact, he got about half of the vote among white Baby Boomers ages 40 to 59.  That’s marginally better than the 43 percent whites under 40 gave him. 

Similar to what we’ve seen in other—have seen elsewhere, white voters over 60 are least likely to support him.  He got only about a quarter of their vote.  Obama’s cross-racial appeal is also seen in voter perceptions of him as a unifying figure.  When asked which candidate is best qualified to unite the country, nearly two-thirds of Democratic primary voters in Georgia think Obama is better suited to get the job done. 

This compares with only three in 10 who say Hillary Clinton is better equipped to do this.  So we’re getting a very good look at which groups broke for Barack Obama in Georgia, his win there.  And we’re going to watch these groups throughout the night as we see other states called across the country. 

Gentlemen, let’s go back to you now. 

OLBERMANN:  All right.  Thanks very much, Lester.  Fifty-four-forty-three, Clinton over Obama in the exit polls among non-African-American voters in Georgia.  So that’s a pretty high number for Obama. 

MATTHEWS:  Yes, he’s moving up here.  Let’s go right now—thank you, Lester.  Let’s go right now for reaction from the panel, Joe Scarborough. 

JOE SCARBOROUGH, HOST, “MORNING JOE”:  Thank you so much, Chris Matthews.  You know, there is a lot of times that you look at these exit polls and you just sort of rub your eyes.  Not this time. 

Pat Buchanan, this is big.  Remember, a week before South Carolina, only 10 percent of South Carolina voters—white voters supported Obama.  By election day it was 25 percent.  Now in Georgia, 43 percent of white voters are on Barack Obama’s side.  He gets 86 percent of African-American voters.  That, Pat, is a coalition that he can win with nationwide, isn’t it? 

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST:  Well, look, and this is a tremendous number, you’ve got, as I say, 22 and 24 percent in South Carolina and Florida.  Now he’s virtually doubled that to 43 percent.  There’s still resistance in folks over 60 years old in the South.  But that’s a good number.  There’s no doubt about it.  I mean, he lost it—was it 54-43?  But you can’t deny that’s a terrific gain. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Rachel, I’m going to talk about Pat and pretend like he’s not here.  Whenever we talk about Barack Obama, Pat Buchanan sort of laughs and chortles.  I’m excited thinking that this guy may be the new face of politics that can unite America.  Now ideology, you know, will I vote for him?  Who knows? 

But younger voters seem to get Barack Obama.  Older voters don’t.  And I think we’re seeing that here, aren’t we?

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST:  Well, but we also say from 40- to 59-year-olds in Georgia, he got 49 percent of the vote.  Now 40 to 59, you call that old or call that not old depending on when you were born. 

But you know, that’s not a bunch of college kids.  And that’s a significant—he got half of that vote.  So the question—the reason that people get agitated over the idea of youth vote propelling a candidate to victory is because there is this theory that young voters never show up. 

Well, not only do young voters support Barack Obama, but they show up when he is on the ballot.  And he is starting to appeal to people outside that young age group.

SCARBOROUGH:  And also, when you talk about 40 to 59, that is an important age group.  It is not 60 and over, but it’s the next most important age group. 

Gene, he is starting to put together a coalition in Georgia, deep South? 

EUGENE ROBINSON, THE WASHINGTON POST:  Deep South.  Yes, I’m going to…

SCARBOROUGH:  Deep South.

ROBINSON:  … going to back up for a minute and go back to that original figure.

SCARBOROUGH:  This is the deep South.  He gets 43 percent of white voters, this may be a harbinger of things to come tonight.

ROBINSON:  Well, you know, when you and I were growing up, we wouldn’t have thought that that was going to happen.  That an African-American candidate would get, you know, more than four out of 10 white votes in a state like Georgia.

SCARBOROUGH:  Especially in a presidential race. 

ROBINSON:  In a presidential race.  I mean, that is incredible.  And I

would say it is a very good start, you know, of the…

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON:  But it’s a good start to the evening for Obama.

BUCHANAN:  That number, 86 percent of the African-American vote is what you expect the Democratic candidate to get entirely in a general election.  And he has gotten it against Hillary Rodham Clinton, basically a moderate liberal Democrat in the South, the wife of the president of the United States, our first black president, and she gets 13 percent of the black vote?  That is very bad news.

SCARBOROUGH:  Pat, that is great news for Barack Obama.  It is bad news for Hillary Clinton.  But as the night goes on, and the results come in and we start going West, Rachel Maddow, suddenly the battle is going to be in the Democratic Party between African-Americans and Hispanics, because African-Americans may go eight out of 10 for Barack Obama.  Hispanics, though, most likely will go six out of seven for Hillary Clinton.

BUCHANAN:  They won’t go that much.  I mean, he only—he won one-third in Nevada.  If Hillary gets two-thirds, that will maintain it.  But if he starts getting 40 percent there, frankly, it is bad news first and foremost for Hillary.

(CROSSTALK)

SCARBOROUGH:  Rachel, what we have to look for though, when we look at these identity groups, is how much impact did Ted Kennedy have?  Can he bring 40 percent of Hispanic voters over?  If so, with these numbers, then Barack Obama is going to have a huge night. 

MADDOW:  Well, what remains to be seen is what the overall spread is between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Georgia.  Right now he was polling about 20 points ahead of Hillary Clinton heading into today.  And so if he beat that spread or if he came in underneath that spread, it’s going to tell us how big a result this is for him.

But in California, he is pulling as much of the African-American vote

as she is pulling the Latino vote.  So it is going to be…

BUCHANAN:  The Latino vote is about three times as big in California. 

SCARBOROUGH:  It is.  It is.  Tom Brokaw said this morning, 60 percent of all children in elementary school in California are Hispanic.  That is how big the vote is—the Hispanic vote is out in California and out West. 

All right.  So the big news, Keith, obviously, 43 percent of white voters in Georgia in the deep South, in the heart of Dixie, going for an African-American, that is newsworthy.  Back to you.

OLBERMANN:  Yes, and by—I don’t want to give anything away from the exit polls, but if you ever took a standardized test, this—we gave you enough information for you to walk back on your DVR device and figure out what the vote totals were projected from the exit polls, even though we are not supposed to give it you.  If we gave it to you based on African-American voters and how many—what percentage they are of the whole, and non-African. 

If you would like to go and do that, go right ahead.  I know Joe is doing it right now.  He has got his abacus out as we speak.  In the interim, let’s continue the analysis with Tom Brokaw about Barack Obama as the projected winner in Georgia, and by these margins, and on the Republican side, the same three-way split that has defined the GOP race so far. 

Does that deadlock break tonight, Tom?  And if so, why?

TOM BROKAW, FORMER NBC ANCHOR:  Well, let me begin with the Democrats, if I can, first of all.  We may be, once again, paying far too much attention to conventional wisdom.  I have been spending a fair amount of time in the South recently and I have been so struck by the social and racial dynamic in cities like Atlanta, in which everyone—they’re not just integrated on a daily basis at work, but they are socially integrated as well. 

And there are, what I call now, the children and the grandchildren of Dr. Martin Luther King who are taking their place in Georgia and in other states across the South.  I was at Ole Miss recently and I met the president of the Ole Miss Alumni Association.  She was an African-American woman.

It’s that kind of change that will play well for Barack Obama, not just on a primary night, but if he should be the nominee as well.  So I think that we ought not to use the past models in this election, especially when people are looking for new answers and new solutions.  And obviously his impressive showing there tonight will probably serve him well.

On the Republican side, what is so striking to me is this internecine feud that is going on within the Republican Party.  And we are seeing that play out in the South as well.  In Pat Buchanan’s old party, there has almost always been a kind of marshalling behind a candidate at some point and saying, this is how we march forward.  Not this time.  And you’re seeing it play out in Georgia and I suspect we will the rest of the night as well.

OLBERMANN:  The first part, Tom, obviously the past is useful as contrast.  And it’s a—I guess it is a great thing for everybody of all stripe politically and all ethnic and racial background in this country to look back at some point at the results that we saw in the past and go, I can’t understand why it happened that way, it seems like it’s happening entirely on merit, which would be a good thing to be able to judge. 

BROKAW:  Look, race—the fact is, Keith, race is still with us.  And it still will be a factor.  But it’s less of a factor, especially for young people every day.  And that is what’s heartening here. 

When I was in South Carolina, I met a young African-American lawyer that I had known for a while, and he said, you know, in our generation we just don’t talk about it or think about it as much as you all do. 

And they have grown up in a much more integrated culture as they look at television, they see television commercials with black professionals and black middle class people.  There’s a whole new, as you know, class of black professionals across this country in all of the fields. 

And so folks are much more at ease with it now.  And we’re not over it entirely.  I want to be entirely clear about that.  But there are big strides that are being made.  And, as I said earlier, I don’t think that this election will be settled just on gender or race alone.  People are taking the measure of these candidates. 

OLBERMANN:  Tom Brokaw, we’ll be back with you later on.  Thank you, Tom. 

BROKAW:  OK. 

OLBERMANN:  And coming up, more exit polls, more results, polls in nine states closing 44 minutes hence at 8:00 Eastern.  You’re watching MSNBC’s live coverage of Super Tuesday.  

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS:  And there he is, the first big winner, in Georgia.  Welcome back to MSNBC’s live Super Tuesday coverage.  Barack Obama is the projected winner in the first state of the night, the Peach State, Georgia.  And on the Republican side it’s simply too close to call in a tight three-way race among John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. 

NBC News political director Chuck Todd is with us now for a look at the delegate apportionment as it stands right now—Chuck. 

CHUCK TODD, NBC POLITICAL DIRECTOR:  Well, Chris, we did some quick little estimates based on what the exit poll is showing us, on a regional breakdown, plus what we’re hearing on the ground both from the Clinton campaign and from the Obama campaign.  And it looks like the best case scenario for Obama may come true out of Georgia, that he may end up netting some 35 -- a 35-delegate advantage out of Georgia over her, particularly if his numbers are as high as they are in certain parts of the state, particularly in those African-American precincts. 

One estimate that we came up with has him getting 60 out of the 87 delegates, which would be a much greater number than they expected.  In fact, because of this and because of what Obama folks are hearing on the ground and in other states, they are already raising the estimate of delegates that they think they can win tonight. 

They really thought that they were looking at a night where they would get 810 to 830 delegates.  Now they already think that they might be able to get more than 850 delegates tonight and that might mean that they win the delegate war tonight. 

Now, it’s one state and they are probably, you know, looking at too many rumors of exit poll information.  But already they feel pretty good about what they are hearing on the ground. 

The Republican side, this too close to call.  The difference between first and second, Georgia does do some apportioning of its delegates.  So you can finish second or third and get a few delegates out of the state.  But the difference between first and second is going to be at least 30 delegates.  We’ve got—the winner of this is going to win at least 46 delegates coming out of here, out of the 69 that are up in Georgia. 

So it’s a big difference between first and second, no difference, by the way, between second and third, whoever—assuming it stays this tight, three-way race, who finishes second, who finishes third, they will both get about the same amount of delegates. 

MATTHEWS:  Since looking at these numbers so far out of Georgia, the Republican conservatives are simply resistant to John McCain. 

TODD:  They are resistant to John McCain, but they are also resistant to Mitt Romney.  Let’s not—remember, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are also struggling to put the coalitions together.  Huckabee couldn’t get economic conservatives, Romney couldn’t get these social conservatives.  So all of them are having this problem putting these coalitions together. 

MATTHEWS:  Boy, it’s a restive political party.  Anyway, thank you, Chuck Todd. 

Up next, what to expect tonight from the Latino vote.  It’s going to be critical of course in states like California, Arizona and New Mexico.  We’ve known that for weeks.  Tonight we’ll find out what happens.  You’re watching MSNBC’s live coverage of big Super Duper Tuesday. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN:  The first numbers are in.  NBC News has projected Barack Obama as the winner in Georgia.  The hard numbers are finally coming in.  Three, count them, three precincts reporting from both sides of the Democratic and Republican primaries.  The Republican number still less than zero, to quote Elvis Costello.  And John McCain giving an indication of what we’re expecting here, why it’s too close to call, a 38-28-27 margin over Huckabee and Romney, that with literally about 700-800 votes total in this primary, at least from the Republican side. 

The Democratic side, it’s Obama 509, Clinton 235.  John Edwards still on the ballot with 41 votes.  Again, that is three precincts reporting, not 3 percent, but just three precincts.  And the very beginning of a very long night on Super Tuesday. 

And we’re back here at MSNBC headquarters.  We will be getting some results from some states with big Latino populations.  For more on the crucial Latino vote tonight, we’re joined from Sand Francisco by Maria Teresa Petersen of the group Voto Latino. 

Thank you for your time tonight, Ms. Petersen. 

MARIA TERESA PETERSEN, VOTO LATINO:  Thank you so much, Keith.  Thanks for having us on. 

OLBERMANN:  It’s almost—now, it has been the story for weeks and weeks, especially about California, it’s almost as if the name had been changed from Latino to “crucial Latino.”  Is the community aware of its importance in the vote in California?  Is everybody comfortable with that?  Is it an incentive to get people to get out and vote? 

PETERSEN:  I have to say that I’ve been doing this now for about three years, and this has been the easiest time for me to encourage folks to go out to the polls. 

(CROSSTALK)

OLBERMANN:  Go ahead.  Is there an indication of what—first off, is there a bloc, is that assumption correct?  Is there any tendency in terms of voting that can be discerned in that group? 

PETERSEN:  No, I think it’s actually very, very reflective.  And if anything, what we’re seeing is a generational divide.  You see a very large group of individuals over the age of 40 going over for Hillary Clinton.  And then you see a large—folks who are under 40 going for Barack.  Now the beauty of it is that of the 18 million eligible Latino voters, 50 percent of them are exactly under 40, and 50 percent of them are exactly over 40.  So it’s a (INAUDIBLE) divide. 

OLBERMANN:  So you’re not just crucial in terms of an election, you’re the crucial demographic breakdown in terms of age. 

PETERSEN:  Exactly.  Just to give you an example.  In California, of all of the Latino voters in California, that’s equal to all of the voters in all of Colorado. 

OLBERMANN:  Why—was there previous disaffection on the part of Latino voters that has suddenly been erased or has there been consciousness raised?  Or what is the change?  You said it’s the easiest experience you’ve had in three years, getting people to vote.  Can you pinpoint the cause? 

PETERSEN:  Absolutely.  I think it’s the whole immigration debate.  Now I don’t think that Latinos are going to the polls because of immigration, but I think it’s more of a catalyst.  A lot of folks have seen the immigration debate as a backlash of Latinos basically saying, you know what, they are not American. 

And in fact, the community is counteracting it, saying, we’re very American and we’re going to go to the polls and address issues that are of concern to us. 

OLBERMANN:  Is it possible, we saw—I mean, this is anecdotal, but I saw throughout New York, at establishments throughout the city of New York today, a heavy turnout by Barack Obama’s people in public places, basically shopping for voters one at a time, trying to convince people to go to the polls in New York as late as 3:00 or 4:00 this afternoon.  Last time I would have been able to see that. 

Is there a means of pursuing the Hispanic vote and the Latino vote in California in that sort of retail fashion? 

PETERSEN:  Well, I know that a lot of what folks were doing is that they were basically—they took advantage of that, they had free minutes over the weekend.  But I know that there was a lot of phone banking going on, friends to friends, peers to peers.  And it’s viral, it has been an incredible experience. 

OLBERMANN:  Maria Teresa Petersen reporting, the easiest time getting out the vote for Voto Latino, the civic organization aimed at nonpartisan representation and getting the vote out for Latino youth, joining us from San Francisco. 

Our thanks for your time tonight. 

PETERSEN:  Thank you, Keith. 

OLBERMANN:  Up next Norah O’Donnell looks ahead to the top of the hour.  The polls closing in many delegate-rich states, nine of them in fact.  Norah will show us what’s at stake of those big nine.  You’re watching MSNBC’s continuing coverage of Super Tuesday, more after this.    

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN:  Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma and Tennessee close at the top of the hour.  Right now we have Georgia where NBC NEWS has declared Barack Obama the projected winner in Georgia. 

The hard numbers that are coming still represent less than zero percent, but it’s a 64-30 split between Obama and Clinton.  And if you missed inside the inside the number exit polls, white voters, Clinton winning 54-43, according to exit poll information, a lot tighter than any previous match like that we’ve seen so far in the primary season. 

In the GOP, it is officially considered too close to call among all three of them.  We’re not even saying anybody’s strapping out of that three-man group.  McCain with a five percent lead again, but again we’re talking about miniscule numbers, nine precincts reporting this thus far out of Georgia.  Many more hard numbers where you won’t want to hear a number again by the end of the evening. 

In the interim, Norah O’Donnell looks now at what we can expect when those polls that we mentioned, some of the eastern states closed at 8:00 --

Norah. 

NORAH O’DONNELL, MSNBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT:  That’s right, Keith.  Thank you very much. 

And just like you, I’m eagerly looking at the next set of results.  And so, let’s first take a look at which polls close at 8:00, and we’ve got a number of states:  Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, all of those closing at 8:00. 

So, first let’s talk about two, now.  How NBC NEWS is handicapping all of these states that are voting today.  Let’s talk about the Democrats first. 

And the Democrats—In the states that lean toward Clinton, according to NBC NEWS analysis, New York, New Jersey, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.  Clinton’s campaign really wants to do well in those big states in the Northeast, like New York and New Jersey. 

Now, let’s turn to the states that lean toward Obama:  Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, Alabama, Illinois, and of course, we’ve called Georgia already that went for Obama as expected.  Now, Obama’s campaign is making the case that they have some red state appeal, especially in those Republican stronghold states, like we just mentioned:  Alaska, Idaho, Kansas and North Dakota, which lean towards him tonight. 

The Democratic tossup, here’s what gets interesting, we’re going to be watching these states very closely:  Arizona, Connecticut, Colorado, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, Utah, and California. 

All right.  Ready to turn to the Republicans now?  Let’s talk about John McCain and the states that lean toward him:  Arizona, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut. 

What about the states leaning towards Mitt Romney?  Let’s take a look at those, these are caucus states:  Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Alaska, and Colorado, plus Utah and Massachusetts, of course, where Romney was once governor. 

The Republican tossup states, the states we’re going to be watching very, very closely include California, of course, the big one, Alabama, Georgia, Illinois and Missouri, of course, which is always a bellwether state. 

Now Keith, these states we just showed you based on our NBC NEWS analysis we will watch, but as you know, especially those tossup states that we just showed you, watching those very closely, because how those break will decide who wins—Keith. 

OLBERMANN:  Norah O’Donnell, thanks.  And if anybody is just sitting there waiting to do something before the California results come in, you have time to do it right now—Chris. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, focusing in, right now, on the race in New Jersey.  I’m joined right now by New Jersey U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, who’s also national co-chair of the Clinton camp. 

Senator Menendez, not just because you’re here, but it’s been my conclusion, thinking hard all day, that New Jersey is, in fact, the bellwether state, tonight.  Do you accept that?  The one to watch to decide who wins tonight between Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. 

SEN BOB MENENDEZ (D), CLINTON CAMP CO-CHAIR:  Well, it’