'Meet the Press' transcript for Feb. 3, 2008

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT:  And we're back.  The Republicans, here we go, folks.  First stop, Alabama:  McCain, 38; Huckabee, 26; Romney, 15.  Georgia:  McCain, 33; Romney, 27; Huckabee, 18.  Illinois:  McCain, 43; Romney, 20; Huckabee, 15. Missouri:  McCain, 37; Huckabee, 27; Romney, 24.  New Jersey:  McCain, 46; Romney, 31; Huckabee, 5.  New York:  McCain, 61; Romney, 24; Huckabee, 6. California:  McCain, 40; Romney, 31; Huckabee, 13.  The Field poll in California, McCain, 32; Romney, 24; Huckabee, 13.  So let's reset the table. There are all the states that are available.  We say advantage John McCain: Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, New Jersey.  We say advantage Mitt Romney:  Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia.  We say advantage Mike Huckabee:  his home state of Arkansas and then we do the toss-ups.  Alabama, California, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

Mary Matalin, the one thing that's clear in all that, other than New York, John McCain doesn't hit 50 percent in any of those states.  Mike Huckabee's presence on that ballot seems to really help John McCain.

MS. MATALIN:  Absolutely.  I mean, Rich Lowry said he has a man crush on McCain.  He can't get enough of him.  At every one of those states would be for Romney, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri and even California, given the way the California primary works, they are real Republicans in there, would go to Romney, in addition to Romney's other states that he has.  Huckabee's presence in the race is a spoiler for Romney, and it's, it's a shame.  We should let this be a two-man race because we're also talking about the future of the country.  But apparently this man crush is stepping in front of--he's not going to get out.  I don't know, he hasn't brought one thing to the party. Not one--his record doesn't say anything to the party, what he's put on the table says nothing to the future of the party.  He's a good joke teller.

MR. SHRUM:  Mary, do you not like him?

MS. MATALIN:  I don't like--this is very important contest...

MR. MURPHY:  Put us down as undecided.

MS. MATALIN:  ...a very important contest, and he's being supremely selfish. And if John McCain really was--and I'm not against John McCain--but if he was a straight-talk he would say, "It's a two-man race.  They were invited to be here today.  He turned it down.  It's a two-man race, get out of the way, man crush, and let me prove to everybody that I can beat Mitt Romney.

MR. RUSSERT:  Mike Murphy, you've worked with Mitt Romney and John McCain...

MR. MURPHY:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...is it OK for John McCain to keep Mike Huckabee alive and well in the race and encourage him?

MR. MURPHY:  Well, sometimes in politics you get a little lucky, and I don't think it's incumbent on Senator McCain to tell Governor Huckabee what to do. I think Mary is right that the Huckabee campaign is increasingly more and more relevant.  We're seeing maybe he'll win a Southern state.  One of the big factors at work, I think, on the Republican side is that our rules are different than the Democrats.  Democrats, being the nice liberals they are, grade on a curve.  They give you delegates for coming in second.  Republicans are being...

MR. RUSSERT:  Proportional.

MR. MURPHY:  Proportional, right, in most places.  Republicans, being mean, social Darwinists, we tend to punish the second place guy for a lot of winner-take-all primaries, and that is the real problem for Mitt Romney. Where McCain tends to be strong are winner-take-all primaries.  They're big, there are a lot of them, coming in second doesn't mean anything.  The few places where Romney might have some strength are proportional.  So McCain can come in second and still get delegates.  This will serve to make the Republican thing a more brutal world and probably kill somebody quicker.  And while Mitt Romney, in a few of the caucus states, the Colorados, you know, but smaller states don't have a lot of delegates like a Montana, has some strength.  In the overall place, he's going into the weekend a bit behind, if more than a bit...

MR. SHRUM:  A bit?

MR. MURPHY:  ...as we saw--well there's some polls that are a little closer--and McCain definitely is in a stronger situation.  You know, the old Mary Chapin Carpenter song, "The stars may lie, but the numbers never do." And the numbers are really, really tough now for Mitt Romney.

MR. RUSSERT:  A lot of "what if" going on.  If Rudy Giuliani had stayed competitive in New Hampshire to the end, Romney could have won there.  If Mike Huckabee had gotten out in South Carolina, Romney could have won there.  And we could have much different...

MR. SHRUM:  You know, Tim, you know, the problem with all of this is that there was resistance to McCain in the Republican establishment.  He was the next guy in line, the guy they were supposed to nominate.  Lot of people stood up against him, looked for anybody else.  He went into the valley, he's come out the other end of the valley.  Prediction is perilous, but I'm going to predict that on Wednesday we're going to look at him, he's going to be the Republican nominee apparent, and all of the folks who had trouble with him are going to figure out how to embrace him.

In 1992--and James remembers this--there were similar groups who had some real doubts about Bill Clinton.  And as he emerged, finally, they had to settle for him.  They're going to settle for McCain--I deeply regret this, by the way.  I think he's the strongest Republican candidate.  I am strongly for Mitt Romney. I join Mary in hoping that Mitt Romney really pulls a big upset on Tuesday.

MS. MATALIN:  Don't--I'm not....

MR. SHRUM:  Because I don't want to run against McCain.

MS. MATALIN:  I'm not--I don't have a side here.  I'm simply saying that Senator McCain would be strengthened in the long run by having to go after the conservatives.  What he did in a serendipitous process here was he went from the outside in.  You can't have Democrats and crossovers in lieu of conservatives.  You have to have a base plus...

MR. SHRUM:  But Mary...

MR. MURPHY:  Mary...

MS. MATALIN:  ...because the crossovers going to go to Obama.  He would be strengthened to come back home.

MR. SHRUM:  Mary, he is being strengthened for the general by people arguing that he's too moderate.  Every time Rush Limbaugh attacks him, he picks up half a point in the general election.

MR. CARVILLE:  (Unintelligible).

MS. MATALIN:  (Unintelligible).

MR. RUSSERT:  Let's, let's watch some of this.

MR. SHRUM:  All right.

MR. RUSSERT:  Because these are some of the comments made, and then James, I'll start with you.

Here's Dr.  James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family:  "I would not vote for John McCain under any circumstances." Unequivocal.

Here's Rush Limbaugh on his radio program on Thursday.

(Audiotape)

MR. RUSH LIMBAUGH:  I was watching the endorsement of Senator McCain by Governor Schwarzenegger in California.  What a picture this was.  And I'm looking at the picture, and I'm seeing McCain surrounding himself with the left wing of our party.  These guys are Republicans, but they're the left wing of our party.  So he just got the endorsement of a big-taxing, big-spending, socialist health care, eco-extreme governor who says the Republican Party needs to follow him to the left.

(End audiotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  That's Rush Limbaugh.  Now...

MR. CARVILLE:  Well...

MR. RUSSERT:  Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention, however, a strong voice in the Republican Party, he weighed in this way with NBC.

(Videotape)

REV. RICHARD LAND:  Senator McCain has gone to great pains to make it clear that he is a conservative.  He has moved to a more conservative position on taxes.  He has expressed appreciation for the pro-life position.

I think it'll be a mutual, a mutual opportunity for both conservative groups and Senator McCain to get to know each other better and to understand what's at stake in November.

Rush needs to get out and talk to average folk more.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Mr. Carville?

MR. CARVILLE:  Well, first of all, a little bit history's in order.  McCain started out like sucking up to these right wing guys.  He looked ridiculous, his campaign went nowhere.  He abandoned that strategy.  He went back to being old John McCain.  He now is going to win the Republican nomination, and a lot of these people who have sort of exposed for not being that sort of powerful within the Republican Party.  It is going to be fascinating to see how McCain does this.  Because if he goes back and tries to play nice with all these guys on the right, the people on the center will leave him.

MR. MURPHY:  And lose the advantage he's been...

MR. CARVILLE:  He'll lose the advantage that he's built up.  So that's going to be a--it's a--strategically, the McCain campaign faces an incredible choice, and as a Democrat, I can't wait to watch it in play.

MR. MURPHY:  There are--I think there's a mistake a lot of people make. There are a lot of conservative potentates with a mailing list or a radio microphone.  They're important, but they don't rule the Republican primary. In the regular primary voter world, McCain has been very competitive with the conservatives.  He never would've won South Carolina.  So I, I think it's easy to talk to a small group of self-referencing potentates that talk about the conservatives as opposed to what conservatives are actually doing on primary day.  And we're going to find out on Tuesday.  And I think McCain will perform very well.  And in a general election, I agree with Mary, there will be a unity behind it.  Because it's a very simple decision for conservatives for a pro-life, leader on the war, fiscal conservative John McCain vs.  Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.  That's going to be an easy-as-pie choice for Rush Limbaugh and everybody else.

MR. RUSSERT:  There's now been a battle of commercials.  We have a John McCain commercial and then another one taken out by the Citizens United, a conservative advocacy group.

Let me play these back to back, Mary, and I'll come back and talk to you. First, the McCain commercial.

(Videotape)

Narrator:  (From political ad) Guided by strong conservative principles, he'll cut wasteful spending and keep taxes low.  A proud social conservative who will never waver.  The leadership and experience to call for the surge strategy in Iraq that is working.  John McCain, the true conservative.

(End videotape)

(Videotape)

Narrator:  (From political ad) One candidate voted against the Bush tax cuts both times and pushed more restrictions on gun owners' rights.  The same candidate joined Ted Kennedy to sponsor amnesty for illegals and was even mentioned as a running mate with John Kerry.  Hillary Clinton?  No.  John McCain.  John McCain, surprisingly liberal.  Citizens United Political Victory Fund is responsible for the content of this ad.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Which commercial do you like, Mary?

MS. MATALIN:  It's very powerful, isn't it?  Listen, I just wanted to correct something.  You know, John McCain didn't enter the race sucking up to any conservatives.  He entered as the heir apparent, front-runner, and we--our party primogenitor, and we're back to the primogenitor thing.  He did not win conservatives or Republicans in any primary.

MR. SHRUM:  I think she likes the second commercial better, Tim.

MS. MATALIN:  No, no.  Listen, I want to win, I want to beat them.  And the notion that Rush Limbaugh and these guys are--they do not direct these people out there, they reflect them.  And on any given day, on any hour, Rush Limbaugh has eight times more audience than all the primary voters combined who've voted so far.  They're just reflecting what's out there.  You had on Rush, Hannity, and you add on Laura, and you add on Mark Levin.  He has--this is a...

MR. SHRUM:  Mary, look.  In the--in The Washington Post poll this morning, McCain is winning 48 to 24 percent among Republicans.  I think Republicans are making the decision they're going to nominate John McCain.  And I have to observe, by the way, Tim, when I see that clip you have of the Reverend Land, I don't recall Jesus calling for tax cuts.  And I think when you try to make that a kind of religious litmus test, most Republicans even are common sensical to walk away from that.

MR. RUSSERT:  He threw the Pharisees out of the temple.

The--Mary, some Republicans are suggesting that if John McCain's the nominee, they'd vote for Hillary Clinton.

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