Florida Primary Coverage for January 29, 6:00 p.m. - 12:00 a.m. ET

KEITH OLBERMANN, HOST:  Now and forever, pivotal in the lore of American politics, the place of decision for the nation with far reaching consequences in 2000 as it had been in 1876 with consequences for civil rights that lasted a century. 

Florida, for the Republicans tonight, critical again.  For the Democrats it may just add to confusion and the resentment because some of them believe they, too, have a primary but most of them don’t. 

Regardless, we will cover it all starting now. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER:  By contrast the GOP has consensus.  Mitt Romney thinks John McCain too liberal, John McCain thinks Mitt Romney too liberal.  And Rudy Giuliani insists the Florida winner will be the nominee, though the polls said the Florida winner would not be the former mayor. 

Tonight Ron Allen at Romney headquarters in St. Petersburg.  Kelly O’Donnell with the McCain campaign in Miami.  John Yang at the Giuliani camp in Orlando.  Andrea Mitchell with the Clinton campaign in Daley and Lee Cowan with the Obama campaign in Kansas City. 

With the analysis of NBC’s Tom Brokaw, the host of “Meet the Press” Tim Russert, the anchor of “NBC Nightly News” Brian Williams, chief White House correspondent David Gregory, political director Chuck Todd, Joe Scarborough, Howard Fineman, Eugene Robinson, Pat Buchanan, Rachel Maddow and Craig Crawford. 

From the McCain campaign, senior adviser Charlie Black, from the Romney campaign, senior advisor Bay Buchanan.  And on the Democrats, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. 

This is MSNBC’s coverage of the Florida primary. 

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OLBERMANN:  At just past 6:00 p.m. in Florida, still two hours before the last of the polls there closed.  We join you from MSNBC and NBC News headquarters in New York.  Alongside Chris Matthews, I’m Keith Olbermann.  Here we are in Florida. 

CHRIS MATTHEWS, HOST:  Yes.  Here we are.  And I think tonight is going to count. 

OLBERMANN:  Yes. 

MATTHEWS:  I think this one on the Republican side, especially, I think we’re going to get pretty much down to the championship here with Mitt Romney maybe winning tonight, maybe losing.  But whoever wins tonight, he or McCain, I think that person really has the leg up going into next Tuesday and all the big

21 states the Republicans will have a fight in. 

And I really do think if Mitt Romney wins tonight, he will reach deep into his pocket and spend whatever $30, $40 million, whatever it cost, to win this.  If John McCain wins tonight, I believe he’s on the road to win.  I don’t think Romney is going to keep fighting quite as hard. 

OLBERMANN:  The Republican choice here is pretty stark.  The two extremes at this point of the party are represented, although not exclusively by one candidate and exclusively by another.  There is something of a head to head of the divisions or one might say the exciting frictions between the two ends of the Republican Party. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, it’s getting very personal… 

OLBERMANN:  Yes. 

MATTHEWS:  …which I like, it’s obviously easy to follow.  One is this tall, great looking guy, who seems to be lucky in every regard.  And the other guy has had a brutal life experience as a POW for all those years and fighting it with bad health, with the rigors of what he went through in the POW camp over in Hanoi, and yet fighting away like a tough guy. 

One guy focusing on the economy, that’s Romney.  The other guy focusing on the war against terrorism.  One’s a war-time consigliere, the one’s a peace timer.  I think the peace time guy has got the better message this week because he’s talking about the thing most normal people are worried about right now is this strange new world economy.  It’s not about a slowing down as the president said last night in job production.  It’s about how we fit in when we borrow money to buy a house in this country and we can’t make afford to make our payments. 

What happens in France that puts the kibosh on that whole relationship?  What’s going on here?  And as I had a senator, the ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, Charles Grassley, said to him this morning, I said to him in a meeting, why doesn’t the president explain that? 

And he said something along the lines, I know he’ll challenge me on this, he can’t. 

I mean I really think it has to be explained, and I think Romney has the leg up in terms of being able to explain it. 

OLBERMANN:  And that by itself an issue that came up when Mr. McCain’s various comments about whether he had an economic strong grounding.  But perhaps we need to use the president’s praise and perhaps we need someone with an economic protective overwatch mission, which… 

MATTHEWS:  Well, that’s what the president calls his new campaign in Iraq for ad infinitum apparently. 

OLBERMANN:  We have some numbers.  They’re not economic.  They’re not results. 

MATTHEWS:  Right. 

OLBERMANN:  We’re not, obviously, going to characterize this race until the last of the polls close, and maybe not even then.  But we can begin with a look at the numbers that we do have, those from the exit polls. 

As usual Norah O’Donnell will be tracking our exit polling throughout the evening.  And here’s the first wave. 

Norah, good evening. 

NORAH O’DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT:  And good evening, Keith and Chris. 

You know, Florida has been this hard fought contest on the Republican side.  One thing we’re learning right away from our exit polls is just what’s on the minds of voters, and of course, in a state where the economy has been battered by housing crisis and by the high cost of oil and gas, Republican voters overwhelmingly said the economy was the most important issue facing the country.  We’ve seen that in just about every state.  It was followed by terrorism, which is the first time we’re seeing that issue come in second to the economy as a key issue for voters.  But you can see illegal immigration also very important. 

Now the sunshine state is also the first contest where early voting has played a part.  Some one million voters cast earlier absentee ballots.  That is a huge group, a huge increase compared to the several hundred thousands who cast those ballots in the 2006 Democratic and Republican races. 

So let’s look at the key groups who decided to vote early or absentee in this GOP primary because this may be key tonight.  The largest group, conservatives, we have a conservative electorate deciding to vote early, 69 percent characterized themselves as conservative.  Also a large number are seniors and a third of those voting were veterans and a third were evangelicals. 

So we’ll see how those groups end up voting throughout the night as we get more results here into MSNBC. 

Also, when we took a look at this entire electorate, as I said, it was conservative, lots of seniors and voters, we wanted also to find out about the time of the decision, when they were made up this decision.  And we can see 57 percent say they made a decision before last week.  So even before all this fighting was going between Mitt Romney and John McCain, 57 percent said they made up their minds before that, and that could be key. 

All right.  Chris and Keith, back to you, guys. 

OLBERMANN:  Norah O’Donnell.  The exit poll and that 47 percent number regarding the economy looming largely. 

MATTHEWS:  Yes. 

OLBERMANN:  Even if you separate Iraq and counterterrorism, as we have in this poll, those numbers combined don’t add up to the economy. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, McCain wins tonight despite that focus on the economy is pure character because he has no pronounced ability to deal with the economic issue.  He’s never even claimed he had any.  It’s extraordinary to yield that much character in a candid interview to admit that you don’t have an expertise in the area that most critical to most people right now. 

OLBERMANN:  Let’s get an analysis of those first exit polls.  Tim Russert, of course, NBC’s Washington bureau chief, moderator of “Meet the Press,” will be with us as available tonight. 

Tim, good evening, and what do you make of that first 47 percent on the economy? 

TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, HOST, “MEET THE PRESS”: 

It’s the largest we’ve seen in any Republican primary this year, Keith.  And so I agree with you and Chris when talking about it.  It’s a very important piece of data because if the economy is the dominant issue, it’s something that Mitt Romney wants to talk about.  It’s his terrain. 

And John McCain tried to play catch-up on it and then I think shifted to the issue of Iraq on Saturday, Sunday, Monday to try to put Romney on his heels over whether or not he was for a timetable for troop withdrawal. 

I think what’s so important tonight is the psychology of how we report this and what the ultimate outcome is. 

John McCain is broke.  He’s going into super Tuesday a week from tonight, 21 states, he needs a victory because he needs to raise money to buy television in 21 states next Tuesday, or a majority of those states. 

Mitt Romney has his own money.  He has probably spent about $40 million of his own personal wealth.  If he decides that he wins tonight, or comes close and he wants to drop another 10 or 15 million out of his own pocket, he can do it. 

It’s very difficult for McCain to raise money if he doesn’t win.  And that’s why, I think, psychologically, the winner tonight is going to have a huge advantage going into next Tuesday particularly if it’s Romney because McCain desperately needs to finance his campaign in a big way. 

OLBERMANN:  And Tim, we sort of by defaulting and splitting this up as the polls had indicated things were so tight between McCain, sort of by default.  The issues of counterterrorism and national security have been shifted into the McCain category, but of course, the story of Florida up until a month ago was the candidacy of Rudy Giuliani, this being his launch pad and those being his issues. 

With the two of them with even—with terrorism showing up just slightly ahead of illegal immigration in Florida, that would not bode well for Mr. Giuliani’s chances and he has said that the winner of this primary tonight is going to win the Republican nomination. 

RUSSERT:  Boy, are you correct.  Rudy Giuliani.  Think about this, Keith.  He was in our polls had a favorable rating in the 50’s.  This is just back in November.  Now it’s in the 20’s.  A month ago, he was in the polls of Mason-Dixon, he did a 36 percent in Florida.  Going into tonight, he has run 18 percent.  If he does not do well tonight, and he leaves the race, he’ll leave with one delegate.  One delegate.  The national frontrunner for most of the year and many people believe that his behavior on the campaign stump the last week was indicative of a man who was looking forward to going back to his consulting job. 

OLBERMANN:  The Mendoza line is the line in baseball, 200 or above. 

That’s the what?  The one delegate is the John Connelly line?  Is that the… 

RUSSERT:  I think Bill Graham, John Connelly, yes. 

OLBERMANN:  Yes.  That’s what we may have—may have to use that one later on. 

Tim Russert, we’ll speak to you later.  Thanks. 

RUSSERT:  Thanks, Keith. 

OLBERMANN:  Let’s take a quick whip around the campaign headquarters tonight.  We’ll start with NBC’s Ron Allen who’s at the Mitt Romney’s headquarters in St. Petersburg at the Mirror Lake Lyceum. 

Ron, good evening. 

RON ALLEN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT:  Good evening, Keith. 

I think Mitt Romney really wants to win a state like Florida, obviously, because it’s Florida.  It’s huge.  It’s diverse.  It’s a big political state.  But he also wants to win one that’s not Wyoming, Nevada or Michigan where he had a hometown advantage, perhaps to really establish himself as the—a national candidate, not just a regional or a niche candidate to some extent. 

And Tim is right.  Going beyond here, he’s got all the money he needs and if he wins here tonight.  If he doesn’t, he’s still going to go on forward.  We’re getting on a plane tomorrow morning to go out to California where he thinks he has a chance.  And of course, from now on, they’re going to

(INAUDIBLE) if he had delegates, what states can they win, and Romney has a western strategy where he thinks he can pick off enough delegates to be competitive for a long time to come. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, that’s the question, is it, that Tim raised, Ron.  How does he go to California with no money in his pocket? 

ALLEN:  Mitt Romney has money in his pockets.  (INAUDIBLE). 

MATTHEWS:  No.  No. No.  I’m talking about John McCain, of course. 

ALLEN:  Well, that’s the question for McCain, yes.  I think that’s a big problem for him.  And if in fact, he does not win, he’s going to have some problems raising money.  I don’t know how he solves that problem.  I don’t know how he solved that problem here.  He’s been running on reputation, I think, for the most part.  But yes, that’s the big problem for McCain.  It’s about money, which, of course, is no object for Mitt Romney. 

MATTHEWS:  Right. 

OLBERMANN:  Ron Allen at the Romney headquarters.  I’m thinking maybe he could use Rudy Giuliani’s flight that’s been booked to California tomorrow if it comes to that. 

Let’s now find out, maybe something is heard at the McCain headquarters.  Kelly O’Donnell at the Airport Hilton in Miami. 

Kelly? 

KELLY O’DONNELL, NCB NEWS CORRESPONDENT:  Good evening to you, Keith and Chris.  And I think what’s on the mind for people very close to John McCain is that sense of hopeful optimism but they’re clearly not overconfident.  They know this is going to be tight.  But I’ve been told by people around McCain that if he can win here, they will try to frame or package a victory in Florida as McCain being unstoppable toward the nomination, to set up New Hampshire and South Carolina and Florida as a trio that really says he’s the frontrunner, he’s the nominee. 

That, of course, is how they want to showcase this if he prevails tonight.  But as you just been discussing with Ron, Romney has such enormous means to keep going.  So they know that this is just another step in what’s happening. 

Today, McCain also kind of hit back on Romney on the economy talking about his record in Massachusetts and trying to at least cut into that which is the perceive strength for Romney here on the day when people are actually voting. 

Guys? 

OLBERMANN:  Kelly O’Donnell, it’s an intriguing campaign when your chief donor is visible to you in your mirror. 

Kelly, at the McCain headquarters.  That’s not the situation he’s in. 

Let’s find out what the mood is like at the Giuliani campaign tonight. 

Headquartered in Orlando, Florida, NBC’s John Yang is there. 

JOHN YANG, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT:  Good evening, Keith.  This is a campaign that, for so long, the campaign strategist said momentum didn’t matter.  So they bypassed Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan. 

And so now they’re here in Florida.  What are they looking for? 

Momentum.  They say they’ve got to pull off something different here.  They’re hoping that lightning will strike.  They’re no longer hoping to win Florida, they’re hoping that lightning will strike and they could come in second.  Then they could sell that they have some momentum, that they can move forward, raise some money, move forward to those big super Tuesday states coming up. 

If they finished third or fourth, they admit it’s going to be very hard to keep going on.  But so far, the Giuliani campaign said they are going to go on no matter what they say that there is a campaign charter scheduled to leave tomorrow morning for California and a debate there.  But others say that the plane may be headed to New York—Keith? 

OLBERMANN:  John Yang at the Giuliani headquarters with both warm and summer clothing available to him pending tomorrow. 

Thank you, John. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, the fight between Romney and McCain has taken a nasty turn in just the last couple of days. 

Bay Buchanan is the senior advisor for the Romney campaign and Charlie Black is the senior advisor to Senator McCain’s campaign. 

Bay, thanks for coming on.  This is a tricky time.  Is there a—you know, you and I know politics.  Which way is this going right now?  Do you feel it in the air of Florida? 

BAY BUCHANAN, ROMNEY CAMPAIGN SR. ADVISOR:  Well, you know, it’s very interesting there.  The candidates are very—the candidate is, one, very, very positive.  There’s some information coming in.  We’re feeling very good. 

Enormous enthusiasm down here in the rallies the last couple of days.  And I could feel, as I travel across the state, I thought the social conservatives moving their own way.  The other—economic conservatives, the Thompson people, I feel we picked up some Huckabee people.  So I feel that this is a very—going to be very, very good.  It’s going to be close.  But I think it’s going to be good. 

MATTHEWS:  What influence will it have, tonight’s results, on the chief contributor to this campaign, Governor Romney himself?  Will he be more inclined to dig deeper into his massive wealth if he wins tonight and if he loses? 

B. BUCHANAN:  Well, you know, if he wins, Chris, I think we’ve all—he probably won’t have to.  There’s going to be enormous momentum and excitement.  He’ll be able to move across this country with being—well recognized as the frontrunner and sure, he’s raising a lot of money on his—from individuals as well.  So I don’t think that he’ll have to dig quite as deep as—if we do not win, I think it’ll be very close, but if we don’t win, surely he might have to do that.  But he has the money, he’s willing to do it, this is going to be a campaign that runs in all the 20 states next week. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, good luck. 

Let’s take a look at the back and forth going on this somewhat nasty campaign.  Now here’s McCain’s charge about Romney about this thing, timetable, that apparently Romney made some reference to a timetable a while back about leaving Iraq and McCain has jumped on it. 

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MITT ROMNEY ®, ’08 PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL:  Every media outlet has looked at it and said, you know, where is he coming from on that?  And he’s, you know, I think kind of desperate here at the end.  I think he expected that after all the years he’s been running for president, that finally he’d get it here, and it looks like Florida is not going to go his way. 

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN ®, ’08 PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL:  If you read the entire quote, there’s very little doubt as to what his intention was and that’s just a product of his inexperience and his lack of judgment.  And I’ve been involved in every major national security issue affecting this nation for the last 20 years.  I’m ready to lead. 

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS:  Charlie Black, thanks for joining us.  On behalf of McCain, do you really have a case… 

CHARLIE BLACK, MCCAIN CAMPAIGN SR. ADVISOR:  Hi, Chris. 

MATTHEWS:  …that Governor Romney wants to turn tail and run?  I mean your candidate John McCain has accused Mitt Romney of being like Hillary Clinton if that’s the right reference, that she—he just wants to hightail it out of Iraq.  Is that a fair charge? 

BLACK:  Well, of course it is, Chris. Read his own words.  Remember the debate at the time.  The surge was just beginning.  President Bush, John McCain and conservatives were supporting the surge, wanted to win, wanted victory. 

Most of the Democrats and a lot of the Republicans were talking about a timetable for withdrawal.  Those were the two sides: victory or timetable.  So when Governor Romney was asked, do you favor a timetable, he should have said no.  Instead he said a timetable to be negotiated, but in secret so the enemy doesn’t know when we will be gone.  A timetable for when we’ll be gone?  Of course, he took the wrong position. 

MATTHEWS:  OK.  And what about this game that’s going on that sort of what he called the side war that’s going on between your two campaigns?  Each candidate says the other one is desperate.  What’s the strategy there to keep saying oh he’s desperate?  What do you gain from saying the other guy is desperate? 

BLACK:  Well, I don’t know, I mean… 

MATTHEWS:  You guys are both doing it now. 

BLACK:  Well, if you look at the political history of this race when Governor Romney is falling behind in a key state, he goes negative, either with ads or personal campaigns or both. 

MATTHEWS:  Right. 

BLACK:  And you know, last time he did it, he lost Iowa, he lost New Hampshire.  So maybe he’s desperate. 

MATTHEWS:  Do you wish that you guys had Mitt Romney as your chief contributor? 

BLACK:  Well, listen, we’ll take any legal money from any means.  In a week or two here we’ll be able to sign him up as a $2300 donor, I hope. 

MATTHEWS:  Thank you very much, Charlie Black.  Good luck.  I said it to the other guy, as well to you.  Looks like a close race tonight. 

BLACK:  Thank you, Chris.  It’s going to be close.  We’re cautiously optimistic.  Thank you, Chris. 

OLBERMANN:  Three late notes to throw at you.  Swiftboating has begun and this from one of the fathers of swiftboats, Ted Sampley.  There’s an e-mail that’s gone out against John McCain that describes him as unfit to serve as commander in chief, spoiled son, military privileged, all the rest of that.  So it is not limited to one side of the (INAUDIBLE). 

MATTHEWS:  Garbage.  It’s really garbage. 

OLBERMANN:  Well… 

MATTHEWS:  It’s unfit to serve is their phrase for Kerry.  They’re using the old lines again. 

By the way, I’m only curious if these guys who call the other guys not great soldiers if they were ever in the line of fire. 

OLBERMANN:  Yes.  Claims to be Green Beret. 

MATTHEWS:  We’ll see. 

OLBERMANN:  John McCain, 10 million robo calls placed on behalf of his campaign.  That’s by his campaign in Florida the last few days.  And we have a report of a voting problem in Palm Beach County with a frozen touchscreen. 

That report coming from a Mr. R. Limbaugh.  I’m not making that up. 

When Chris and I return, the stakes in Florida where the Republican candidates need to do well tonight.  And later, the Democratic race, whatever it is, primary or otherwise, Senator John Kerry will join us. 

You’re watching MSNBC’s live coverage of the Republican primary and the Florida Democrat whatever it is. 

MATTHEWS:  Does he have e-mail? 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN:  We rejoin you with MSNBC’s live coverage of the Florida primary. 

NBC News political director Chuck Todd has a look at the Republican strongholds in Florida.  Chuck always wanted to be one of those forecasters with a telestrator and he’s finally got his chance—Chuck? 

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR:  So true.  Someday I’m actually going to be the one who gets to draw on it as well.  But I know, baby steps, right? 

OLBERMANN:  Yes. 

TODD:  Baby steps. 

Well, let’s start with where Mitt Romney was trying to get his vote today.  He sort of concentrated in three distinct areas.  One was the I-4 corridor.  He lived there.  The ton of sort of rank and file younger Republicans, and he spent a lot of time from the – basically I-4 goes from Tampa to Daytona when you look in west to east. 

And then he also concentrated in the southwest part of the state, Ft.

Myers, Naples, a lot of older, rich retirees Republicans.  Not sure how else to describe them.  But a lot of rich retirees down there.  Some are not even retirees, places that they have second homes but they moved to Florida because of the tax break.  No state income tax.  Then you go into the northeast corner, Jacksonville, another area that’s growing a lot of younger conservatives. 

And those were sort of the three areas Romney is concentrating on building his vote. 

Then you have John McCain, who’s got a very unique coalition he was trying to put together, which was sort of older Republican conservatives from the northern part of the state, basically think from Pensacola all the way to Jacksonville.  And then Cubans in South Florida.  He spent a lot of time.  He got that endorsement from Mel Martinez.  And so South Florida.  And then putting together this coalition of the Panhandle.  Be an interesting thing if it ends up working out.  Not a lot of Republican primaries have been won that way. 

And then both of them are having to do with two candidates siphoning potential support away from them.  You had Rudy Giuliani, who was concentrating a lot on the gold coast, the sort of eastern half of southeast Florida from Miami up to Orlando, if you were going to Miami to Coco Beach, where there are a lot of New York retirees.  And then you have Mike Huckabee who are siphoning some of the social vote in the Panhandle spending a lot of time up there from Pensacola to Tallahassee. 

So watching in those areas tonight, that’s when we’re watching election turnouts to see who outperformed—how much did McCain outperform Romney among Cubans in south Florida?  How big of a lead did Romney get out of the Ft. Myers area, Naples and southwest part of the state? 

Getting those—padding those numbers and seeing how well they did, that will tell us, you know, what’s going to happen as the night rolls on. 

OLBERMANN:  Chuck Todd, NBC News political director, confirming for us once again that Florida is we may—if you had never lived in Florida, or spent a lot of time there, think of it as one place.  Like many big states, it’s many different places. 

Thank you, Chuck. 

TODD:  You got it. 

MATTHEWS:  OK.  When we return, our panel will be with us to talk about what’s at stake tonight as we continue our coverage of the Florida primary. 

Big stakes for the Republicans primary.  This could be the championship here on MSNBC. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN:  And we’re back with more of MSNBC’s live coverage of the Florida primary.  That’s the official term for the Republicans.  We haven’t figured out the term for the Democrats yet. 

MATTHEWS:  Let’s go to the panel tonight.  A heavy duty panel, of the “Washington Post” Eugene Robinson, MSNBC political analyst Pat Buchanan and Rachel Maddow, an interesting couple, and “The New York Times” columnist Bob Herbert. 

You know, I just want to start, Gene and then Bob on the left there, and among you guys, I want to talk about the Democrats tonight.  Hillary Clinton is going down to Florida tonight.  She’s apparently in the air if not there yet to claim victory in a primary that supposedly doesn’t count.  What’s it matter?  What’s it mean?  You first, Gene. 

EUGENE ROBINSON, THE WASHINGTON POST:  You know I think it that means that she was a little quicker off the mark than Barack Obama.  I mean it—I think she adhered to the letter of the law in terms of Florida.  She didn’t actually go down there and campaign, even though she has an organization there.  Obama has an organization there.  She thought she was going to win this kind of beauty contest, and so she set herself up to claim victory there.  I think that’s pushing the envelope, but I don’t think it’s dirty politics.  I think it’s taking advantage of the situation. 

MATTHEWS:  Bob? 

BOB HERBERT:  I think it depends on how it gets covered, both on television and in print.  If it gets covered as though it were a victory for Hillary, it could help her and give her a little bit of nudge going into Super Tuesday.  If the coverage is that this really doesn’t mean much and it’s kind of ah, then it won’t have any affect at all. 

MATTHEWS:  So I can read the “New York Times” tomorrow morning and decide where your paper stands.  If you give good play to Hillary’s victory in a non-binding delegate fight in Florida, then that suggests you’re pushing for Florida. 

HERBERT:  What’s this you guys stuff.  I’m on the op-ed page.

MATTHEWS:  I’m watching all the newspapers to see who is favoring who. 

Let me go—I want to finish up with the Democrats for a second, because they are not the big story.  Rachel, I want to give you a shot here.  Hillary Clinton will probably win in Florida just on name ID.  Everybody has always thought that because it’s not a contested primary.  Does she break the steam of the Kennedy-Obama juggernaut by winning a non-binding primary tonight in Florida, if she does. 

MADDOW:  I think this is onto your previous question.  I think it’s interesting the contrast where Hillary Clinton did not make a big deal out of winning Michigan, where it was also a similar situation in terms of delegates, and a similar situation of Democrats not really knowing if it counted.  She probably is going to make a big deal out of Florida because now the race feels much tighter then it did at the point. 

I think she’s making a big deal out of this.  She’s going to hope it gets picked up as a momentum factor.  Bob is right, in large part determines how much momentum she’s able to get because of the press coverage. 

MATTHEWS:  Pat?

BUCHANAN:  I think it’s going to be more important than that.  If you get a million Floridians going to the polls and Hillary Clinton, say, wins it three to two or two to one, that is very big news.  She has not campaigned there, as Gene said.  If she just goes down to claim a victory, I think what it will do, it will indicate that the Caroline Kennedy/Edward Kennedy thing is not really a juggernauts. 

Secondly, it will be indicative that Barack Obama did not get the kind of momentum he would have hoped to have gotten out of South Carolina.  And what momentum he did get will be broken a bit.  I would think this would be a major indicator, if not the major indicator of the way votes will break on February 5^th.  If, however, Barack Obama really comes back with some kind of stunning number there that surprises us and very close to hers, I think it will indicate that the Clintons were hurt badly by last week and more than they thought. 

MATTHEWS:  OK, let’s bring in Michelle Bernard, who is with the conservative group, Independent Women’s Voice.  Michelle, let’s switch over to the Republicans now and have some real fun right now.  This looks to be the shoot out between—it’s getting very close to being that—between John McCain and Mitt Romney in Florida. 

It’s a huge state.  It’s a very representative state in many strange ways.  It has every accent of American life, practically.  Every person from every state has ended up there.  It’s almost like Denny’s, you don’t go there, you end up there.  Should I say that?  Will that offend people?  I don’t really mean that. 

OLBERMANN:  There goes the Denny’s account. 

MATTHEWS:  It’s not an original observation.  But Florida is the state of falling chads.  They fall there from the Bronx.  They fall there from Iowa and Chicago.  They fall there from the southern part of the south.  What do you make of it?  Who is going to win? 

MICHELLE BERNARD, INDEPENDENT WOMEN’S VOICE:  Florida, Florida, Florida.  But by the way, I do smell something a little not too nice coming down the Democratic side of the aisle as well in Florida.  But with regard to the Republicans, it’s a brawl.  It’s going to be a fight to the very end.  I really don’t have a clue who is going to win it.  It’s very, very, very close. 

These fellows don’t like each other.  They are campaigning hard.  Chuck earlier talked about Mel Martinez endorsing Senator McCain, but McCain also got the endorsement of three other Cuban members of Congress in Florida.  He’s really holding on tight and hoping for a large part of the Hispanic vote. 

It will be interesting to see how much hemorrhaging we’re going to see from the Giuliani campaign and how many of Giuliani’s followers from the New York corridor that are now living in Florida for the winter, and are registered Republicans in Florida, are going to go to McCain or going to go to Romney.  It will be very close to call. 

MATTHEWS:  Bob Herbert, I’ve never met a New York reporter from any major newspaper, in fact any paper, that likes Giuliani personally.  It’s absolutely Catholic.  It’s universal. It’s every single person.  Not only dislikes him, seems to be rooting for his imminent demise.  Is this going to be a night for (INAUDIBLE) across the press rooms of America for Rudy Giuliani. 

HERBERT:  You’re really trying to put me on the spot. 

MATTHEWS:  You’re a columnist, you can say what you want. 

HERBERT:  I’ll put it this way; from the very beginning when Giuliani was leading in the polls nationally and well ahead in Florida, there were no New York reporters who had covered him over an extended period of time who believed that that would hold.  People were very skeptical that Giuliani would end up the GOP nominee. 

If you look back, Giuliani does not play well.  It’s almost like the more voters see of him, the less well he does.  So you remember his aborted campaign for Senate in New York.  And even though he’s viewed as having had two successful terms as mayor of New York, the longer he stayed, the more his poll numbers declined.  So he had a remarkable period post September 11. 

MATTHEWS:  Right. 

HERBERT:  And he deserved the praise that he got for the way that he led the city during that period.  But the rest of the time, when you look at the politics of Rudolph Giuliani, it has not been that much of a triumph, frankly. 

MATTHEWS:  You’re missing the point of my question.  Why do journalists hate Rudy Giuliani. 

HERBERT:  Well, for starters, I’m not going to say journalists hate Giuliani.  In fact, I do know a fair number of journalists who like Giuliani and who admire him.  But I think that there are a lot of journalists who just looked at some of the things that he did, especially in the last few years as mayor, who looked at his hardball and sometimes bullying tactics, both against other people and against at times journalist, and who looked at some of the things that went on in his private life, and just decided this is not our favorite human being.  But I think that’s neither here nor there. 

MATTHEWS:  You’re getting where I want you to be.  Getting there, which is where I want you to be. 

HERBERT:  The real issue is how voters see Rudy Giuliani.  The more they see him, the more they tend to not be crazy about him. 

MATTHEWS:  I’ve watched so many people in back rooms and green rooms and conversations at parties, I have seen nothing but animus towards this guy from reporters I respect a lot.  I keep saying what’s it about.  It’s about the way he treated the media, how he treated reporters who had to cover him ever day. 

Up next—

OLBERMANN:  I’m a New Yorker.  I always enjoy seeing him at Yankee Stadium. 

MATTHEWS:  Maybe that’s a different relationship.  That’s a collegial, sports loving kind of relationship, whereas reporters that needed to get the facts from him had a problem. 

Up next, more on the Democratic race.  All three candidates are on the ballot, but none has campaigned.  No delegates are at stake.  But Hillary Clinton looks like she could be down there tonight. 

OLBERMANN:  Looking to get that edge heading into Super Tuesday, we’ll ask a supporter of Barack Obama, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, about all that next.  You’re watching MSNBC’s live coverage of the Florida primary. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS:  Welcome back to MSNBC’s coverage of the Florida primary tonight, especially the Republican fight.  On the Democratic side, the candidates, all of them, agreed not to campaign in Florida.  And no delegates will actually be awarded tonight officially.  But that’s not stopping Senator Clinton from showing up to the state tonight, apparently to preside at a victory party. 

Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts is supporting Barack Obama for president, and that’s become an issue in this race.  Let’s talk about this with Senator Kerry.  Thank you for joining us.  Which camera am I looking at now? 

Thank you. 

Senator Kerry, it’s great to have you on tonight.  What did it feel like watching your colleague, Senator Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy and Patrick, all the Kennedys together endorsing your candidate tonight? 

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS:  Spectacular.  I thought it was a great event.  I talked to some of the people that were there.  I’ve heard these amazing reports about the energy that was there.  I mean, it was really one of those very, very special moments.  I think Ted Kennedy’s endorsement is meaningful. 

I think Barack Obama obviously has been inspiring people across the country.  In fact, today, Chris, what’s really interesting is every week now he’s proving his ability to be able to unite people and pull people together, because today, the governor of Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius, endorsed him.  Janet Napolitano, the governor of Arizona, has already endorsed him.  Former Governor, now Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska has endorsed him. 

Excuse me. 

So he’s really proving, with Tim Kaine of Virginia and others, that he is bringing people together and has this ability to run in very difficult states and do well. 

OLBERMANN:  Senator, what is this tonight?  We’ve been trying to find the right term for this, for the Democrats in Florida.  Obviously, the Republicans are having a primary.  Is this a primary, a primary without delegates?  What has happened and is it the same thing the candidate you support thought it was when the whole process started? 

KERRY:  Well, I think everybody agreed on what it is.  Hillary Clinton and John Edwards and Barack Obama all agreed it was not for delegates.  There are no delegates at stake tonight.  It’s not a place where campaigns were to take place with respect to a primary.  So I know that they are—that the Obama campaign obeyed those rules and stood by it.  And I think that’s the appropriate way to have handled tonight. 

More importantly, you know, Barack is looking towards February 5^th as a real proving ground for his ability to be able to attract independents and Republicans and Democrats alike.  If you look back at South Carolina, where he won 55 percent of the vote, which was contested and was for delegates, you now have a Barack Obama who has won one more votes across the country than any opponent, and who has more delegates today than any opponent. 

I think he has a good strategy.  He’s living by the rules, which is what Americans like to see, somebody who plays by the way it’s set up.  And he’s going on now to February 5^th. 

OLBERMANN:  Characterize for me—let me get your reaction, this is off the Politico website that Representative Corrine Brown placed a round of recorded calls to her Jacksonville constituents yesterday urging them to vote against Amendment One, which would cap property taxes, and is opposed by unions and many Democrats and is, by itself, supposed to increase turnout tonight. 

According to one of her aides, the call continues, for Corrine’s quick pick, I’m supporting Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president. 

This is a reference to cards that she typically distributes on election day.  Some said Brown paid for the call out of her own campaign committee. 

This wasn’t a Clinton campaign effort.  Is it legally not a campaign effort, but violating the spirit of what’s supposed to be going on or not going on among the Democratic presidential candidates. 

KERRY:  I think it’s very clear to a lot of people that there’s been a campaign effort on behalf of a candidate by allies of that candidate.  Whether that’s organized or not, I can’t tell you.  What I do know is, and what I think is important for people to focus on tonight, is not to look for the divisions but look at the reality of where we are.  The reality is the contest in Florida, regrettably—

I feel badly for the Florida voters.  We all want to win Florida.  We think Florida is important.  We have great respect for Florida voters.  They deserve an opportunity to be able to vote, but unfortunately this got caught up in rules of the party and it wasn’t resolved in a way that made a difference. 

So the bottom line is, it’s not for delegates tonight and the Obama campaign has respected that. 

Let others figure out what else happened.  What’s really important is Barack is taking a message of a different kind of politics across the country. 

He’s going out and proving every day by bringing people like Governor Sebelius of Kansas, like Governor Napolitano of Arizona, Senator Nelson of Nebraska, both Democratic senators from the Dakotas, North Dakota, South Dakota; he’s proving that he can unite the country.  I think that’s what Democrats are really looking for.  I think that’s what independents and Republicans are looking for. 

It’s really interesting, the governor of Virginia, Tim Kaine, was asked, can a Democrat carry Virginia this year.  And his answer was, the right Democrat can.  And then he endorsed Barack Obama.  To me, that’s the story that you’ve got to be able to run across the country.  And I think the number of delegates that Barack has won, the nature of his victories—in a state like Iowa, which has very few minorities, he won across the board.  In South Carolina, he won every demographic. 

Even in New Hampshire, where it was a very close race—and Nevada—in Nevada, he won the outlying areas overwhelmingly across the demographics of those areas.  To me and to Ted Kennedy and to others who are looking for someone who can really win in November and lead us to a different place, we see in Barack Obama an ability to unite, to end the politics of division, and to really turn a page in American history. 

MATTHEWS:  Senator, who carries Massachusetts next Tuesday?  Barack or Hillary? 

KERRY:  We know that Hillary Clinton has had a big lead up until this moment.  I think she’s probably still in the lead.  Barack Obama is coming from behind, as he is in many of these states.  But that hasn’t deterred us from making a decision that, in our judgment, it really represents the future.  This is a choice about the future versus the past, about a new politics, a different politics, and really about change in Washington. 

I think Barack Obama has proven that he’s got those leadership skills. 

He certainly is inspiring people.  He’s bringing young people to the table and we’re very excited about it. 

Obviously, it’s going to be a fight in a lot of different states. 

That’s the best of our democracy and that’s what it’s supposed to be about. 

OLBERMANN:  Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, thank you, senator. 

Take care of the cough. 

KERRY:  Good to be with you.  Thank you.  Yes, a little allergy, I think. 

OLBERMANN:  I hear you.  When we return, NBC’s Tom Brokaw will join us about the tone of this campaign, both the Clinton/Obama fight and the McCain/Romney fight that we’re watching so carefully tonight, as those polls close throughout Florida, some in 12 minutes, some in an hour and 12 minutes. 

This is MSNBC’s live coverage of the Florida primary.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN:  As we continue here, our privilege now to be joined by NBC’s Tom Brokaw.  Out of the near slumber of the last Republican debate, there seems to have risen a beast, sniping, if you will, between Senator McCain and Governor Romney over the weekend.  It went full bore.  According to each of them, the other one, Tom, is a liberal.  How can that end well? 

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR:  I don’t think it necessarily will end well.  I don’t remember the Republican party since 1980 being such a fractious state.  As I go around the country, I’ve heard more Republicans this cycle than any time I can remember in all the years I’ve been doing this who say they are fed up with the party, or their are not happy with the condition of their party. 

But at the same time, there’s an effort under way, if you will, to rally around a candidate.  What I call the big business Republicans thought that Mitt Romney would be their candidate at the beginning.  They are falling out of love with him.  We’ve been talking repeatedly here and on other nights about how John McCain has demonstrated what a tough warrior he is.  He’s not the perfect conservative in the eyes of a lot of people, but they find him authentic. 

We’ve got a ways to go.  Tonight will be important, as any number of people have said, for John McCain.  He has to finish first, a very tight second to raise money for next week.  One of the advantages for John McCain next week, he’s going back out to his region, to the American west.  California has a strong Latino population.  They find him more favorable than they do Mitt Romney, based on what we have been seeing so far.  So we’ve got a ways to go in the Republican party. 

OLBERMANN:  Do the Republicans need that kind of unity, do you think, Tom, based on your experience in covering these things for so long?  Or do they manufacture something that resembles it?  Or do they simply have a kind of glue that fits in and keeps those bricks together whether the bricks like each other or not? 

BROKAW:  They have always had more discipline.  They have always been able to put those bricks together, how ever asymmetrical they may seem at this stage of the process.  I was talking to a Republican strategist today and I was describing what I was finding as I went across the country about how, as I described it just a moment ago, the fractious nature of the party.  He shot back right way, but there’s a lot of angst in the Democratic party. 

I responded by saying, angst in the Democratic party is like acne on a teenager.  It’s a fact of life.  It’s going to be there.  Both parties are

going to have to put themselves back together.   

MATTHEWS:  Do you have a sense, Tom, that some Republicans are more inclined to want to kick the football rather than receive it this year, that this is a bad time to be president.  Let’s let Hillary or Barack have a shot. 

BROKAW:  I’d think they would like to receive it.  I think they have learned the power, political power in this country resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.  I think that they know that they have got tougher chances going into this poll.  A lot of Democrats are already saying we can’t lose.  That’s the silliest thing I’ve heard so far in this political season. 

But the Republicans know they have got a tough row ahead of them.  My own guess is and soundings indicate that most of them think they would have the best shot at Hillary Clinton.  She’s a known quantity for them.  They are watching with a combination of fascination and objective measurement the momentum that Barack Obama is beginning to develop. 

OLBERMANN:  Tom Brokaw of NBC News will be with us throughout the evening.  Thanks for the first perspective, Tom.  The polls in Florida will be closing in just a moment—some of them at the top of the hour, across the state in an hour and change.  The most important number so far, exit polling; the economy, 47 percent of those responding to the exit polls saying that was foremost on their minds among the Republicans who were involved in the Florida primary.  Our coverage of which will continue after this. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR:  Before the polls have closed tonight in Florida, before they had even opened this morning, what happened next was already, is again, in dispute.  Will the top vote getter among Democrats have his or her delegates seated at their convention?  As they say, I can’t believe it’s not a primary.  Will the winner of tonight’s Republican primary go on to win the nomination, as Rudy Giuliani has claimed?  How many differences are there if even Rush Limbaugh’s touchscreen freezes on him when he casts his Florida ballot?

All that and much more continuing now.

By contrast, the GOP has consensus.  Mitt Romney thinks John McCain too liberal, John McCain thinks Mitt Romney too liberal.  And Rudy Giuliani insists the Florida winner will be the nominee, though the polls said the Florida winner would not be the former mayor.

Tonight, Ron Allen at Romney headquarters in St. Petersburg, Kelly O’Donnell with the McCain campaign in Miami, John Yang at the Giuliani camp in Orlando, Andrea Mitchell with the Clinton campaign in Davie, and Lee Cowan with the Obama campaign in Kansas City, with the analysis of NBC’s Tom Brokaw, the host of “Meet the Press” Tim Russert, the anchor of “NBC Nightly News,” Brian Williams, chief White House correspondent David Gregory, political director Chuck Todd, Joe Scarborough, Howard Fineman, Eugene Robinson, Pat Buchanan, Rachel Maddow and Craig Crawford.

This is MSNBC’s coverage of the Florida primary.

At just past 7:00 PM in most of Florida, many polls are closed, the rest an hour hence.  Alongside Chris Matthews, I’m Keith Olbermann.  This is our continuing coverage of the Florida primary.  If it’s 47 percent on the exit polls the economy and terrorism in Iraq add up to only 34 percent between them, who does that favor?

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR:  It favors Romney, in a night in which this is great asymmetry of American politics.  Tonight, the vote counts for the Republicans.  And the Democrats, it’s not clear what it counts for.  So it’s getting harder and harder to follow this procedure, except to say that what happened is two big states, Michigan a while back, and Florida, broke the rules.  They broke the rules of the national Democratic Party, moved up their primaries to get into the action early and were punished by being denied all their delegates.

However, the caveat: At some point between now and when the conventions are held, the Democratic frontrunner, whoever he or she is, will yield back, you can bet, those delegates to the states that were denied them.

OLBERMANN:  And in the interim, in such a close race, you take a victory, whether it’s a Florida without any delegates or American Samoa, as we recall from the other night, which Hillary Clinton invoked.  And when American Samoa comes into the equation, no offense to anyone there, that indicates how tight that is and how hard fought that is.

MATTHEWS:  Hillary is—Senator Clinton is fighting that new ad that went on the air tonight of Caroline Kennedy with the pictures of her father, looking like a million bucks, as she for the first time in her life that I know of has entered politics big time and is endorsing heavily on the air in all the big cities of the country for Super Tuesday—Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles—all the big cities are going to see the ad of Caroline Kennedy, America’s daughter, endorsing Barack Obama.

That’s what Hillary has to fight tonight.  She has to show some strength, or else she might get rolled over.

Let’s go around the campaigns tonight, starting with our top correspondents, Ron Allen, who’s with Mitt Romney.  Mitt Romney, the big question again, does the focus, as Keith pointed out, on the economy give the edge to the miracle man, the turnaround man, Mitt Romney?

RON ALLEN, NBC CORRESPONDENT:  Well, he certainly hopes so, Chris.  The other thing that he hopes is that because this is a closed primary, Republicans only, that that gives him an edge, as well, because McCain won’t get those independents who have been helping him along the way elsewhere.

For Romney, he wants to beat McCain in a state that where he doesn’t have some built-in advantage, perhaps, as in Michigan, where he’s a hometown kid, out in Nevada and Wyoming, where there was a significant Mormon population.  So that’s what he’s looking for tonight, to try and make this a two-man race, to beat McCain and to move on to Super Tuesday or to February 5, whatever we’re calling it, with some upper hand and the aura, the mantle of a winner.

MATTHEWS:  OK.  Thank you, Ron Allen, who’s with Romney.  Let’s go to NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, who’s with McCain.  Same question.  All the stakes are on the table tonight.  It seems if McCain loses—we’ve just lost Kelly, but I think the question—there she is.  There’s Kelly O’Donnell.  Thank you.  Hand raised.  It’s your turn...

KELLY O’DONNELL, NBC CORRESPONDENT:  Hi, there.  Hand raised.

MATTHEWS:  ... Ms. O’Donnell!

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS:  It’s like in school!

O’DONNELL:  My Catholic school...

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS:  ... school.  The importance to McCain tonight.

O’DONNELL:  Well, this is huge for McCain.  And advisers close to him say they are cautiously optimistic.  They don’t want to go too far and be overconfident.  They see this as a pathway to frontrunner status and a pathway to additional fund-raising.  Senior advisers say in the Florida stops for fund-raising, they’ve raised more than a million dollars.  Last week in New York, they had their first $1 million single event fundraiser—so important to be able to pay for some advertising in the Super Tuesday states.

They’re not sure where they’ll buy exactly because, of course, there’s a lot of strategic decision making.  Where will Romney buy?  Where will they need to try to counteract that?  But it all hinges on what happens tonight because they think if they can win here, it really changes the dynamics and makes things much easier going forward.  And that’s what they’re hoping for.

MATTHEWS:  OK.  Thank you, Kelly O’Donnell, who’s with McCain.  Let’s go to NBC’s John Yang, who’s with the Giuliani campaign in Orlando.  What are they hoping for tonight?  Are they really in the business of hoping for winning on the nose tonight?

JOHN YANG, NBC CORRESPONDENT:  Well, Chris, I don’t think they’ve—when you talk to the campaign staff and the strategists, they put on their honest face.  I think they acknowledge that their hopes of winning Florida outright are gone.  Their definition of winning has changed.  If they could finish second here, if they could get out of their distant third, which is where they are in the polls, or were in the pre-primary polls, I think they could spin it as a win because they’re doing something unexpected.

But if they were to finish third or fourth, it would be very hard for them to carry on, get any sense of momentum out of that, any sense of carrying on into the big Super Tuesday states, or even being able to move on and raise money to campaign in those states, Chris.

MATTHEWS:  OK.  Thank you, John Yang, who’s with Rudy Giuliani.

OLBERMANN:  We are at least 54 minutes away from any kind of actual hard numbers or any kind of characterization of the results in Florida, 8:00 PM  Eastern time.  But in the meantime, we’ve already heard some fascinating numbers from the exit polling.  We mentioned one of them off the top, that the economy was the key issue, and then some, 47 percent of Republican voters.  For more exit numbers, let’s go to Norah O’Donnell at the exit suite upstairs—

Norah.

NORAH O’DONNELL, NBC CORRESPONDENT:  Yes.  Good evening, Chris and Keith.  Well, in the Sunshine State, we’re learning three things about this Republican primary electorate.  We’ve got a very conservative electorate.  The economy is the number one issue, and they are very pessimistic about the economy.  And we know that Mitt Romney and John McCain have been fighting over the past week, with each trading charges about who’s more liberal and who has the best performance on economic issues.

Look inside our exit polls.  The figures show that Florida Republicans give the economy very low marks.  Just add those last two numbers that you see together, and you see that 63 percent feel the economy is really tanking.  And that’s comparable to what we saw in Michigan, remember, in the Michigan primary, which is suffering from the worst unemployment in the nation.  Here’s that chart sort of just comparing just how pessimistic people are about the economy.

Now, here’s what’s really interesting.  Despite these negative feelings about the economy in Florida, a majority of the Republican electorate still has positive feelings about the Bush administration.  Look at negative feelings and the economy, and a majority of the Republican electorate still has these positive feelings.  You can see 20 percent enthusiastic, 46 percent satisfied there with Bush.

And these are even more positive feelings about the Bush administration than we saw, remember, in South Carolina.  Remember, South Carolina was really Bush country.  And this is worth noting because this is a closed Republican primary in Florida, and we’re going to see many more closed Republican primaries on Super Tuesday.  Back to you guys.

OLBERMANN:  All right, Norah.  We don’t know what to call the thing the Democrats are having.  We do know that—here we go again, Barack Obama hinted today that when they get to California in advance of Super Tuesday, we may see the return of Oprah Winfrey into the middle of the campaign.

Let’s talk about the Democrats with NBC’s Washington bureau chief, the moderator of “Meet the Press,” Tim Russert.  Tim, what is happening with the Democrats tonight?  And how does it play in with the Kennedy endorsement of Obama, the whole dynamic in this heated Democratic race?

TIM RUSSERT, HOST, “MEET THE PRESS”:  Well, it’s so interesting, Keith.  Florida was not being pointed to in any way, shape or form by the Clinton forces until very recently.  We had a briefing about 10 days ago about the delegate count.  And Harold Ickes, a wild old sage of politics, a very strong supporter of Hillary Clinton—he said, you know, the simple thing to remember is states don’t nominate, delegates nominate.  And they were concerned that on Super Tuesday, if Obama won more states, the press would be saying, Obama wins more states.  They want the story to be, Obama wins more delegates.

So suddenly now, the last couple of days, post the Kennedy endorsement of Obama, the Clinton folks are saying, What about Florida?  What about Florida?  Florida counts.  A million people are going to vote.  You can’t disenfranchise them.  And the press corps say, Well, wait a minute, all the candidates said they wouldn’t campaign there.  And the DNC, Democratic National Committee, said there won’t be any delegates there.  So if it doesn’t count and no one campaigned there, why is it a story?

It’s a story because the Clinton campaign wants to break the momentum of the Obama campaign post the Kennedy endorsement, and they want to see some good news going into Super Tuesday.

The one interesting thing I think we could learn tonight from the Democrats in our exit poll is their attitudes towards issues, their attitudes towards Bill and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and if there’s any difference when people made up their minds in terms of favorable or unfavorable to the candidates or their supporters.  And that could kind of be a treasure trove of data.  But other than that, we just have this kind of back-and-forth going on between the campaigns and a little bit with the press corps as to whether we should pay any attention to Florida or simply ignore it.

OLBERMANN:  Yes, and I think we may have discussed this when we talked about Michigan and the Democrats, when a similar situation occurred.  I may have even used this analogy.  Forgive me if I’m repeating myself.  But an old not good friend but acquaintance of mine from Hollywood, Walter Matthau, used to gamble on baseball year-round, basically.  He used to gamble on the winter leagues.  He used to gamble on spring training games.  So for him, if you can imagine the madness of that—Walter Matthau used to—spring training games used count for him.  And I thought the analogy here in Florida is very apt, that suddenly, you’re trying to make an spring training game, or what was agreed to be an exhibition game, suddenly count as a real-life outcome.

Is there a danger in this?  Because now we’re hearing there’s a AFSCME union mailer that went out on behalf of Hillary Clinton in Florida.  There is this robocall on behalf of Representative Brown there, saying, By the way, my quick pick is Senator Clinton in the primary.

Is there a danger, even if you get some sort of momentum, get some sort of push off this for a victory tonight—is Senator Clinton’s campaign in danger of paying too high a price for it, of being seen as people who tried to change the rules after the game was already in progress?

RUSSERT:  And that’s why you heard Obama saying, When I agree to something, I keep my word, trying to bring that issue back into play.  You know, one of the concerns being expressed late this afternoon, Keith, was that if we go to a convention where neither candidate has a majority, will there be an attempt to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations?  And then can you imagine the holy hell that will break out because people will say, Wait a minute, we didn’t compete there, and you said it didn’t count.  So this thing may be—is one to mark down and remember in the back of our heads as to some of the infighting that was going on today.

It got so interesting, Keith, there was a debate going on again today in Washington about the seating at the State of the Union message last night.  There were suggestions coming from the Clinton camp that they attempted to have an arrangement where Obama and Clinton would sit together to show unity on the Democratic side, but the Obama people say there was never any understanding, they always intended to set next to Ted Kennedy after the endorsement.  But that’s how minute this discussion, this debate, this infighting is getting, every side looking for every small advantage to carry the day for spin and carry the day for momentum going into Super Tuesday.

MATTHEWS:  Let me ask you, Tim, can Obama keep up with Hillary Clinton with regard to financing all the 22 states next Tuesday night?

RUSSERT:  You know, that’s a great question, Chris.  And here’s what I think.  I believe that Obama is probably in better shape with fund-raising than Hillary Clinton right now.  Why?  Because many of her contributors have, quote, “maxed out.”  They’ve given the maximum amount they can do.  He had a lot more smaller donors, who they can keep going back to and raising money off the Internet.

We don’t know the exact numbers yet because they haven’t been filed, but based on my conversations with the campaign, they’re extremely competitive.  They’re both going to be well financed.  But I don’t think money is going to be a problem for Obama.

Contrast that to the Republicans and what we talked about an hour ago.  John McCain is broke.  Mike Huckabee is broke.  Rudy Giuliani is broke.  Mitt Romney is basically out of money that he has raised from outsiders and has his own money.  But the Democrats have raised so much more money than Republicans, which is the total converse that we’ve gotten in our history of politics.

MATTHEWS:  On the free media side, Ted Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy, do we have a sense of the itinerary between now and next Tuesday for that rambling campaign trio?

RUSSERT:  Yes, we do.  Ted Kennedy is going right to California, then Arizona and then New Mexico.  Why?  One word.  Latino voters, the Bobby Kennedy connection with Cesar Chavez, Latinos all across the country.  Do they expect to win those Latino districts by having Ted Kennedy endorse Obama?  No.  Then what’s the import?  The way proportional representation works, if you have a congressional district that has four delegates and one candidate gets 59 percent of the vote and the other candidate gets 41, guess what?  You each get two delegates.

MATTHEWS:  Wow.

RUSSERT:  So Kennedy’s mission is to keep Hillary’s vote count in Latino districts below 60 and split the delegates.

OLBERMANN:  And determine who gets to sit next to who at the State of the Union.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN:  Good grief.  Tim Russert, we’ll check back with you later.

RUSSERT:  Thanks, Keith.

MATTHEWS:  We were all watching—Keith and Tim, we were all watching Joe Biden sitting next to Hillary the other night.  What is that about?

Anyway, let’s go back to the Republicans for a moment and bring in “Newsweek” senior political correspondent, Howard Fineman, our friend, who’s also an MSNBC political analyst.  He has new information.  The world needs information, Howard!  What’s going on with Giuliani?

HOWARD FINEMAN, “NEWSWEEK,” MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST:  Well, I think

that’s one of the stories of tonight, Chris.  And in e-mailing and phoning

members of Rudy’s inner circle, here’s my sense of things.  First of all, there

are already Republicans in New York’s state who are looking to move to John

McCain, assuming that Rudy doesn’t pull off a miracle in Florida tonight.

And that’s crucial because John McCain did very well in New York state in 2000 against George Bush, and there are 101 delegates at stake in New York, almost twice as many at are at stake here in Florida this evening.  They’re going to move to McCain very quickly, assuming Rudy gets out.  And the people I talked to who were on the bus with Rudy over the weekend said it was a very odd situation, where the candidate himself did not want to talk about the course of his own campaign, refused to discuss campaigns at all.  He’d rather talk about baseball.  He was talking about the next town they were visiting.

Meanwhile, elsewhere on the bus, the postmortems had already begun, what went wrong and why.  They are second-guessing not having gone into Iowa.  They were scared out of Iowa because of Romney’s money.  Little did they realize that Mike Huckabee would rise in Iowa.  In then in New Hampshire, they got scared, after those stories came out about the police-supervised getaway that Rudy had with Judi Nathan, they pulled advertising out of New Hampshire.  That created an opening for McCain.

They’re proud of Rudy for the way he’s conducted himself in this campaign.  Bob Herbert was saying how all New Yorkers have a rather dim view of Rudy, even though he was a hero on 9/11.  The fact is, in this campaign, he’s been a perfect gentleman.  Other people in Florida say he’s actually run a very good campaign in Florida, stressing taxes, which is the right thing to stress for Republicans and the economy.  It’s just the fatal mistake was staying out of all of those early primaries.

And the bottom line, Chris, is it looks like he will have spent maybe $50 million, $60 million—raised that much, spent that much—to acquire a grand total of one delegate.  He got a delegate in Nevada, and that looks like all it’s going to be.

He’s supposedly going to California tomorrow to continue the campaign.  One insider I talked to said there’s at least a 70 to 80 percent chance that that’s a fake, and by late tomorrow or certainly the next day, he’ll be out of the race.

But he didn’t want to talk about it.  Rudy did not want to discuss it while he was traveling around in Florida.  He was having a victory lap, if you will, in his own mind.

MATTHEWS:  So he won’t debate tomorrow night?

FINEMAN:  I think it’s highly unlikely.  I think it’s highly unlikely because the problem is, if he commits to that, he commits to staying in through February 5, and he’s going to get humiliated in his home state of New York.  It’s been a humiliation enough for him, although he’s conducted himself well.  Why continue and watch people who have surrounded him, even some of those who have supported him, move to John McCain before February 5?.  I think it’s highly unlikely he’ll stay in until that date.

OLBERMANN:  Plus, at that later date, he’d have to give out another set of autographed baseballs.

(LAUGHTER)

FINEMAN:  A lot more baseballs to dip into.

OLBERMANN:  Howard Fineman, great thanks.

We actually now have early numbers from Florida on the Republican side, eight precincts now reporting—seven precincts.  I’m sorry.  It’ll be interesting.  Right these numbers down at home—McCain 31, Romney 27, Giuliani 19 percent.  And again, we’re talking about the leader here having 4,886 votes.  But 31, 27, 19.  Huckabee leads the second page with 15 percent.  Just write those down, see how far we come up at the end.

They just changed to McCain 29 percent, Romney 28 percent, with that eighth precinct reporting.  That’s eight out of quite a bit larger numbers than that.

Our coverage of the Florida primary—and these numbers will change—will continue in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS:  Welcome back to MSNBC’s continuing coverage of the Florida primary.  Early numbers in the Florida Republican primary are coming in now.  We’ve got some polls that have already closed, 12 precincts all together reporting.  McCain has a slight edge.  You see these numbers.  It’s about 25,000 votes total that have been counted so far.  We’re way ahead of—or way behind, rather, in trying to figure out who’s going to win this thing.  We’re going to have to watch that for a while.

Let’s go to Pat Buchanan, who’s going to run the panel for a bit—Pat.

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST:  OK, thanks, Chris.  Let me go to Eugene Robinson.  Let’s talk about the humiliation of Rudy Giuliani, and it’s nothing less than this.  Look, here’s an individual that’s leading the Republican race for most of the year, 30, 35 percent, everyone behind him.  He stays out of the early—all the early races in Iowa and New Hampshire, the rest of it.  In the debates—people say he’s no good at the speech.  But in the debates, frankly, if you ask me, and took all the debates together, who was the number one debater, and I think in all of them, I would have said Rudy.

What exactly happened besides this incredible strategy.

EUGENE ROBINSON, “WASHINGTON POST”:  Right.  I think—everybody’s going to talk a lot, and perhaps we should talk a lot about the strategy, which I think will go down as one of the dumbest ideas in presidential politics.  But I think his message was wrong.  I didn’t—for example, on the economy, which, you know, wasn’t necessarily going to turn into the big issue but did turn into the big issue in this campaign, Rudy offered basically nothing.  He said, Oh...

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN:  Look, I disagree.  Look, down in Florida, he offered this tremendous tax cut.  Apparently, it was thought through.  It was probably Steve Forbes’s job.

ROBINSON:  Yes, but...

BUCHANAN:  But he pivoted as fast as Romney did, I thought, on the issue.  Romney pivoted in Michigan, but he got down there in Florida.

ROBINSON:  But he had—he just had that one message, Cut taxes, cut taxes, cut taxes.  And I think people have a sense that that’s not what’s going to work.  That’s not what’s going to save their house...

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON:  ... their foreclosure.  That’s not what’s going to save the jobs.

BUCHANAN:  Had he already lost it by then?

BOB HERBERT:  Yes, I think he had already lost it, but I think he had lost it from jump (ph) street.  He never was really ahead.  That was all name recognition.  This is a guy who’s not fundamentally a politician.  Rudy at bottom is a cop.  He’s a prosecutor.  He’s a guy—that’s why he’s good in the debates.  I mean, he’s a lawyer.  He’s trained in that kind of confrontational thing.  But he’s not really a politician, where he connects well with the people, presses the flesh.

BUCHANAN:  You’re telling me he can’t translate his poll numbers into votes.  The more people that see him in the flesh, the less well he does.

HERBERT:  And the same thing happened when he ran for Senate in New York in that aborted run against Hillary Clinton.

RACHEL MADDOW, AIR AMERICA RADIO, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST:  Well, Rudy

Giuliani, in order to compete at the national level, has to be able to talk

about national policy issues.  And look at what happened that things started to

fall apart in Florida.  We got the giant tax cut proposal, which he never seem

to understand very well, even when he was advocating for it.  What was his

other big Hail Mary policy?  A man on Mars.  Talk about misreading what the

American people are interested in right now!

HERBERT:  That was a little weird.

BUCHANAN:  Look, what we’re going to get out of this race tonight, no matter—is clarity.  I think Rudy’s coming back to New York.  I’ll tell you, I agree with Howard Fineman.  I think he’s got to get out of the race if he loses because he will be humiliated by John McCain in New York state.  All these states he has set up as winner-take-all, he will lose all of them.  My guess would be that by the Tuesday of next week, Rudy Giuliani endorses John McCain.  What do you think?

ROBINSON:  You know, I think that’s—well, by Tuesday?  I don’t know if he does it by Tuesday.  I think he gets out of the race.  He may not endorse right away.  I also don’t think he’s going to be at the top of anybody’s vice presidential list.

MADDOW:  On that point, though, how is he going to explain this loss? 

I mean, one delegate and the endorsement of Jon Voight...

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN:  ... Connally spent what was then an enormous $10 million, got one delegate in New Hampshire, went down to South Carolina, endorsed Ronald Reagan in 1980.

HERBERT:  I don’t think Rudy’s going to be a factor in the race.  I don’t think his endorsement is going to mean much.  If he was going to endorse somebody, I assume it would be McCain, but I don’t think it’s going to be a factor.

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN:  Let me disagree to this extent.  If he gets out and endorses McCain, where do the residual Giuliani votes go?

MADDOW:  There aren’t any residual votes!

BUCHANAN:  I think in Florida, they are going to McCain.  They are going to McCain in Florida, just like the Huckabee votes seem to be breaking somewhat for Mitt Romney.

But let me get back to this clarity issue.  We really are going to get it.  Mike Huckabee, unlike Giuliani, had a great day.  I mean, every candidate ought to have at least one great day.  He had it in Iowa.  He almost had another in South Carolina.  In other words, he’s had a great campaign, even if he loses.

But I think that Huckabee, after tonight, if he’s running for it, my guess would be he might run fourth because a lot of folks voted early for Rudy, you know?  And so—but I think Huckabee now, he goes through a baggage (ph) of delegates, don’t you?

HERBERT:  I agree, yes.  I agree with that.

MADDOW:  I—sorry.  Go ahead, Bob.

HERBERT:  No, I—I just agree.  But I think—and I don’t think—you know, Huckabee, though, I think, is the kind of guy that can have an influence in this campaign going forward, I think much more than...

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN:  Who does he deliver it to?  McCain.  McCain.  Does he not?  Huckabee will deliver to McCain because he doesn’t like Romney.  It’s a personal thing.

MADDOW:  No, I don’t think he does.  I don’t think he does.  Evangelical voters, not a factor in this election.  Huckabee’s delegates don’t matter.

ROBINSON:  Oh, I’m not sure he loves McCain, either.

BUCHANAN:  OK.  Thank you very much, panel.  They’ll be coming back to us.  We’ll work on somebody else next.

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS:  Pat, I love the way you said every candidate should have one great day.  You won the New Hampshire primary back in ‘96, and I believe the winning prize is a job at MSNBC.

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS:  I think we’re going to get Huckabee over here.  I can see it coming!

Up next...

OLBERMANN:  Wait.  The losing job—the losing is two jobs at MSNBC.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN:  Thank you.

MATTHEWS:  The polls are still open in the panhandle of Florida, where the fighting between McCain and Romney is fierce.  And as we go to the break, we’re looking at live pictures right now of Barack Obama’s town hall meeting in Kansas City, Missouri.

This is MSNBC’s live coverage of the Florida primary tonight.  More in a moment.  Results coming.

Sen. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:  ... electricity to this election, one that even I didn’t predict when I announced almost a year ago that I would embark on this unlikely journey to change America.  You know, at the time when I decided to run, people said, Why are you running this time?  You’re a young man.  That was before all the gray hairs started popping out.  Why this time?  And I had to explain I am not running because of some long-held ambition.  I know people have been looking through my kindergarten papers, but that is not why I decided to run.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN:  You’re wondering where vote totals are coming from in Florida considering some of the polls have not yet closed in the Panhandle.  These are supplied by the state of Florida.  We’re not breaking any kind of embargo.  These are the official numbers and they are releasing them before those remaining polls come to a close—or shut down at 8:00.  Couldn’t be that much closer.  About 840 votes separating McCain and Romney with Giuliani in third place and Huckabee fourth. 

But again, 1 percent of the vote reporting, 83 precincts reporting.  And that’s all we have.  The numbers will change probably at this rate and we’ll probably be looking at them at this rate throughout the evening. 

We continue with MSNBC’s live coverage of the Florida Primary.  Thirty minutes and less, in fact, now from all the polls closing in Florida.  Turn now to NBC’s political director, Chuck Todd for a look at those places that are still open, that issue of the Panhandle and what’s going on between those two lead candidates there—Chuck. 

CHUCK TODD, NBC POLITICAL DIRECTOR:  Well, as we learned eight years ago, there are two separate poll closing times in the state of Florida, which does makes you wonder why the official secretary of state site is releasing data.  But they are.  What’s interesting is what is open in the Panhandle now, basically just west of Tallahassee to Pensacola. 

It has turned out to be—it’s a very competitive area between McCain and Romney, and it is competitive for one reason.  And that’s the role of Mike Huckabee.  Huckabee, there’s a lot of evangelicals—southern evangelicals in the panhandle.  He’s pulling vote away from Romney.  And then you add in the factor that there’s a ton of veterans there, there’s a big Naval base there in Pensacola. 

So there’s a lot of retired military there.  And that has been good for John McCain.  So no doubt that this last 30 minutes you’re seeing all sorts of phone banking probably by both Romney and McCain to try to gin up some more vote, you know, with Romney trying to play to the social conservative crowd and with McCain trying to make sure every one of those veterans made it, because it’s turning out to be one of the more competitive areas. 

OLBERMANN:  Just because Romney is leading McCain by 164 votes at the moment, 48,596 to 48,432, is that—you think that’s kind of close? 

TODD:  Yes, just slightly.

OLBERMANN:  Do you actually—by the way, do you actually sit there and count like we would in a basketball game, lead changes? 

TODD:  I wouldn’t do that but it is—I was actually looking at what has come in so far and what absentee vote has been in.  And a lot of it is probably areas that Mitt Romney did very well in.  It is coming from the central part of the state.  They report early. 

Remember—and we learned this very well in 2000, a lot of these optical scan counties, where it’s very easy to count the vote and they count it very quickly, a lot of that stuff in central Florida.  And that’s going to be areas that Mitt Romney was counting on doing very well in. 

OLBERMANN:  You said the magic words, optical scan, and chills ran down my back.  Chuck Todd, thanks.  We’re now 25 minutes out from the last of the polls closing in Florida.  When we come back, new numbers from the exit polls.  Plus, Senator Mel Martinez, who made a key endorsement of John McCain at the end of last week.  You’re watching MSNBC’s live coverage of the Florida Primary.  

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN:  Those remaining polls in the Panhandle in Florida that are still open will be closed at the top of the hour, 22 minutes -- 21 minutes hence in an extraordinarily tight start at 7 percent virtual dead heat between Romney and McCain in the Florida Republican Primary. 

MATTHEWS:  Senator Mel Martinez of Florida has endorsed John McCain. 

He joins us now from McCain’s headquarters in Miami. 

Senator Martinez, you know this state as well as anyone does. 

SEN. MEL MARTINEZ ®, FLORIDA:  Hey, Chris.

MATTHEWS:  What can you tell by the way the results come in, these early hard numbers? 

MARTINEZ:  Fasten your seat belt because it’s another Florida election, Chris.  This is going to be a really wild, wild ride between now and about 10:30 or 11:00 tonight when finally you can call it. 

MATTHEWS:  Is there any pattern to the earlier counts as opposed to later counts? 

MARTINEZ:  Well, you know, the thing you have to understand about Florida is that it matters where it’s coming from.  And there will be waves of counts and it will alter the outcome.  In my only election, I can recall at one point in the evening, certain counties came in and it completely turned in one direction.  When other counties came in, it went in a different direction. 

Florida is such a diverse state.  I would look for McCain to take a lead when Broward, West Palm—Palm Beach County, Broward, and Dade County come in.  Those areas I think will be heavy for McCain. 

But you know, it’s much too early to tell at this point.  I just think it’s going to be very close.  I’m encouraged that it’s trending McCain, I think in some of the exit polling I’ve seen.  And I’ve also seen some very favorable numbers among Hispanics, which I think show huge numbers for McCain. 

MATTHEWS:  Is your candidate, John McCain, stronger on the Atlantic Coast? 

MARTINEZ:  I think that’s right.  I think his strength is in the Atlantic Coast.  I think he’ll be strong in South Florida.  But I believe with the governor’s endorsement, I think, and my own, it strengthens him in the I-4 corridor.  And obviously in the Panhan