Economy nearly stalled in last quarter of 2007
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Spending by businesses on equipment and software slowed to a pace of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter. For the year, such spending was up just 1.4 percent, the worst showing since 2002.
Sales of U.S. goods and services abroad also slowed sharply in the fourth quarter. Exports grew at a 3.9 percent pace, compared with a sizzling 19.1 percent growth rate in the third quarter. That strong export growth was a key reason why the economy performed so well as a whole in the prior quarter. For all of 2007, exports grew by 7.9 percent, the slowest in two years.
Meanwhile, inflation picked up sharply during the final quarter. However, for all of 2007, it moderated slightly.
A gauge of inflation linked to the GDP report showed that “core” prices — excluding food and energy — grew at a rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter. That was up from a 2 percent rate in the prior quarter and was the biggest quarterly increase since the spring of 2006.
For all of last year, core prices went up 2.1 percent, down from 2.2 percent in 2006. The inflation figures are above the Fed’s comfort zone — the upper bound of which is a 2 percent inflation rate.
High energy prices are a double-edged sword. They can put a damper on growth and also stoke inflation, which would be a dangerous combination for the economy.
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The inflation figures could complicate the Fed’s job of trying to energize overall economic growth while also keeping inflation under control.
Some analysts think the economy is on pace to recede from January through March. Under one rough rule, the economy would have to contract for six months in a row for the country is considered to be in a recession. The odds of a recession have risen sharply over the last year, and analysts increasingly believe the U.S. will be in one during the first half of this year.
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