'Meet the Press' transcript for Jan. 27, 2008

MR. RUSSERT:  What happens, Romney vs. McCain, here in Florida and onward?

MR. TODD:  Well, I think that it's a must-win for Romney.  John McCain, they won't be able to stop John McCain.  If he gets a win out of Florida, he will finally disprove this theory that he can't win when there's only Republicans that vote in a primary.  So a victory here for McCain, he will, he will come out of here like a rocket.  Not only will he win--not only will he steal the Giuliani strategy--I mean, he's got it--by the way, he should thank Rudy Giuliani's campaign, because the one groundwork they did, Rudy may not have been running for president, but his campaign was.  And they got all these winner take all states to be--all these states in the Northeast to become winner take all:  New York, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey.  Well, now John McCain automatically now has a pad of a couple hundred delegates that he's going to get on February 5th because he's going to take the Rudy strategy. But if he wins here, he will sky--and then he'll get Illinois and California. So Romney has to win here.  Now, Romney has a lot of intangibles in his favor with Florida.  This is a fairly conservative Republican electorate.  This isn't an electorate that's predisposed for John McCain.  More importantly, Giuliani's hurting McCain here.  He banked early vote, that's with moderates. He's got a decent chunk of the Cuban vote, which is something that McCain has been trying to compete for.  So you look at it demographically, ideologically, this thing seems to favor Romney.  Plus, he's got his own money.  He's on the air more.  But Romney has to win here because if he doesn't he's not going to stop McCain.

MR. RUSSERT:  You saw Senator McCain's reaction, Maureen, to Bill Clinton saying that, "If John McCain's the nominee, he and my wife would have a wonderful, civil campaign." And I asked whether he thought Bill Clinton was being mischievous, and he said, "I think nothing but honorable thoughts and intentions for the former president." Was Bill Clinton trying to stir things up and, and hurt John McCain in the Republican primary?

MS. DOWD:  Well, I asked McCain about that in the green room, doing reporting, and he was saying not to think--I know he really does like Hillary Clinton--I've talked to him about that--and thinks she's really fun to travel with.  But he said to expect fireworks.  He's not going to lay off of her. He's already talking about how she's waving the white flag of surrender on Iraq.

MR. TODD:  They enjoy the vodka shots, right?

MS. DOWD:  Oh, yeah, they did in Estonia, yes.

MR. RUSSERT:  But was Bill Clinton trying to tilt the Republican primary?

MR. YORK:  Sure he was.  I mean, it was a one-two punch against McCain with The New York Times endorsement, which, you know, immediately after it happened, I'd be getting, getting e-mails from the Romney campaign talking about The New York Times endorsing McCain.  New York Times endorsement and Bill Clinton's endorsement?  I mean, what else does an opponent of John McCain want going in to a big primary?

MR. RUSSERT:  The suggestion being that Hillary Clinton, if she's the nominee, would prefer to run against Mitt Romney?

MR. YORK:  Well, that's, that's always been the calculus in here, of, of Republicans thinking who's the weakest Democrat to run against, who's the weakest Republican.  The head-to-head polls have consistently shown only one candidate, John McCain, actually beating any Democrat in the, in the fall matchup.

MR. RUSSERT:  What do you expect leading into super Tuesday between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton?

MS. DOWD:  Well, I think, you know, it's very interesting to me because I think that in, in Iowa, Obama learned how to connect with his electricity. Usually you have someone being the daddy figure, and he's like the blessed child, you know, he's learning as he goes.  And we're watching him learn and get personally upset in real time, which we, we saw with McCain in South Carolina in 2000, now we're seeing with Obama.  And the question is, did this give him his spine?  You know, he's been struggling.  Is he on the pedestal like Adlai Stevenson, or is he JFK and RFK, who knows how to fight back?  And I think he's got a false choice.  He doesn't have to be Tonya Harding to fight back; he could be like Reagan and just flick them away and use wit.  But he's learning on the job, and he, you know, he--his speech, his victory speech last night was angry.  You know, he is angry at the Clintons for what he sees as underhanded tactics, and they were underhanded.  So it, it depends, is he going to get back on the pedestal or is he going to figure out some way that he's comfortable with not to do cage fight, fighting.

MR. RUSSERT:  Can you mix hope and defiance?

MS. DOWD:  Exactly.

MR. RUSSERT:  And, and, how will the Clintons now behave?

Will Bill Clinton alter his tactics, Chuck Todd?

MR. TODD:  Well, you know, it's interesting is I think that, that what Clinton has done to Obama will make Obama a better general election candidate.

MS. DOWD:  Right.

MR. TODD:  But what Bill Clinton's been doing is, is weakening Hillary Clinton in a general election if she gets the nomination.  They have to, I guess, tone him down.  You know, the most striking thing about last night is who's the first Clinton that America heard from last night?  It was Bill, not Hillary.

MS. DOWD:  Yeah, and what was he saying?

MR. TODD:  How weird was that, as far as sort of it really just reinforced this idea that it is Billary that is the candidate.  And now this is becoming more and more sort of conventional wisdom inside of voters.  It's not--it's a big problem.

MS. DOWD:  And he was comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson, which Hillary starts with comparing him to Martin Luther King, who can't get something done, and then Bill finishes with comparing him to Jesse Jackson, who couldn't get elected.  So it wasn't pretty.

MR. RUSSERT:  To be continued.  Byron York, Maureen Dowd, Chuck Todd, thank you.  We'll be right back.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT:  That's all for today.  Watch NBC News and MSNBC tomorrow night for full coverage of the State of the Union of George Bush, his last one. Tuesday night, results from the Florida GOP Republican primary.

Thanks to the great folks here at WEDU-TV, the PBS station in Tampa, Florida. You guys have been terrific.

We'll be back next week.  If it's Sunday, it's MEET THE PRESS.

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