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Why Obama won and what his win gets him
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The lesson learned from Saturday’s Obama victory is that Obama’s appeal is broad — but not universal.
The fact that electorate was more than half African-American should not obscure this number: In Greenville County, which has higher average income and a more educated populace than the statewide average and which is 78 percent white, Obama won by a resounding 22 percentage points., annihilating Clinton.
As in New Hampshire and Iowa, exit polls indicated that Obama performed very well among those with post-graduate education and those with incomes over $200,000.
But unlike New Hampshire, Obama also outperformed Clinton among those earning less than $50,000 a year.
Clinton's bastions: women and older voters
According to exit poll interviews Clinton’s only strong demographic groups were white women, among whom she won 44 percent to Obama’s 22 percent, and voters aged 65 and older, among whom she got 40 percent to his 32 percent.
John Edwards had strong appeal where Obama and Clinton did not: among white male voters.
Obama got only an estimated 27 percent of such voters, while Edwards won 45 percent and Clinton got 28 percent.
The white males were only an estimated 18 percent of the Democratic electorate Saturday.
And in most of the upcoming Democratic contests, white males will likely account for only one quarter or less of the electorate.
But if he ends up winning the Democratic nomination, Obama’s lackluster showing among even Democratic white males is a challenge for his strategists to solve before November.
Obama’s strongest demographic group was black voters: he got nearly 4 out 5 of them. He also won two-thirds of those under age 30.
But House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn made clear that he’s had more than his fill of reporters asking about Obama winning 78 percent of black voters and 53 percent of the electorate being African American.
“Four years ago Al Sharpton, a black guy, ran here and a white guy won,” Clyburn noted. “So what’s wrong with black people voting for a black guy? They voted for a white guy four years ago.”
Asked how black voters across the nation would interpret Saturday night’s results, Clyburn, somewhat impatiently answered, “The same way white people are interpreting it. Here is is guy who gives me hope; he’s’ a guy of the future.”
That’s not an endorsement, but no matter — if Obama wins enough of the Feb. 5 contests, then every Democratic elected official will rush to endorse him and the nomination will be his.
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