Bud Collins

MELBOURNE, Australia - Roger Federer's straight-set loss to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals raises the question of whether his days as the dominant force on the men's tour have come to an end.

The Swiss No. 1 will spend the rest of the year showing us whether he is still as invincible as he seemed at the start of the Melbourne fortnight or whether his fall to Djokovic marks the beginning of the end of the Federer Era.

Putting the heat on King Roger
In the span of 24 hours the entire complexion of the men's season has changed. First second-ranked Rafael Nadal got KO'd by Muhammad Ali look-alike Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in one semifinal. A day later in the other semifinal Djokovic smothered the Lord of the Swings 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (5) to set up one of the most surprising major finals in years, won by Djokovic 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 (2). The Australian Open was turned into a tournament of surprises and it turned the new season upside down.

While the unseeded Tsonga's run to the final is surely a stunner, No. 3 Djokovic has been on the radar for a year as a player who could unseat Federer. At 20, the Serbian has already reached at least the semifinals at all four majors, the youngest person in the post-1968 Open era to do so. He beat both Federer and Nadal last season, but not in a major. He lost to Federer in straight sets in the U.S. Open final and to Nadal in the semifinals of Roland Garros and Wimbledon. His title here represents a significant milestone and tags him as a legitimate contender for Federer's crown.

Despite a 1-5 record against the 26-year-old Swiss heading into the contest, Djokovic never lost his focus and played an aggressive, controlled brand of tennis that took Federer out of his normal rhythm. He out-aced the top seed 13-10 and hit 50 winners to 38 for Federer. Both players finished with 32 unforced errors. Most of all, I was impressed by how he came up with big serve after big serve in the important moments and when he was in trouble. The Belgrade prankster proved he has already closed the gap with Federer. The kid they call “Nole” has made huge strides and barely out of his teens can still improve, so look out.

The burden of being No. 1
Federer never found his range. His forehand often sailed long and his usual court quickness and anticipation lagged. He admitted he wasn't moving well, but couldn't pinpoint a reason why. Perhaps it was the stomach illness that afflicted him just before the start of the tournament that forced him to miss the Kooyong Classic exhibition event. I can't imagine a guy at 26 losing his wheels.

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But in fact there were early signs that Federer was not on his game Down Under. He barely survived a third-round marathon with Janko Tipsarevic 10-8 in the fifth set and had set points against him in the next round against Tomas Berdych. In the quarterfinals, James Blake pushed him more than he should have. Federer just never looked like his imperious self. Has the pressure started to get to him? I'm not sure, but he seemed to hint at the burden in his comments after the loss to Djokovic.

Federer, who has been ranked No. 1 a record 209 straight weeks, said his success had created a “monster” because he is always expected to win. He elaborated by saying, “It's not easy coming out every week for sure trying to win. But you'll always run into fellow top-10 players or other guys who are on a streak or on a hot run or surprise you. That's the difficulty about tennis, you know. I've had it for a long, long time, you know. I've had to deal with all sort of different streaks.”

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