Let the sunshine in

On the other hand, the Florida primary also could be the one that plays host to a very conservative electorate.

The primary is only open to registered Republicans and so far, John McCain has not fared well, according to the exits, among registered Republicans. He actually lost Republicans by a point in South Carolina (his margin among independents put him over the top).

And while he won Republicans narrowly in New Hampshire, again, it was independents that gave McCain his margin over Romney.

Clearly, Mitt Romney's folks believe they have a winning strategy for Florida and it's two-fold:

• First, hope that Rudy Giuliani's camping out in the state has helped  the New Yorker bank some of the early votes (the state allows for early voting) thus keeping that moderate bloc away from McCain;
• And second, remind rank-and-file Republicans why they used to dislike McCain.

Romney's operation in Florida should not be underestimated. He's got many of Jeb Bush's best political aides behind him and he may tacitly have Jeb behind him as well.

But that's pure speculation on my part.

However, if you read some of the things Jeb has said about Romney versus what he’s said about the other candidates, it's clear with whom Jeb has a lot in common.

He sees more of himself in Romney: He too is a former governor with a problem solving business background who is more of an ideological social conservative than the rest of the field.

Of course, Jeb's social conservative credentials are stronger than Romney's, which is why Romney is not the frontrunner today.

So can Romney stop McCain in Florida?

As I’ve said, his opportunity is now, and it’s here.

It's a friendly electorate. Couple that with the shift of focus from the war to the economy and Romney's got his chance.

As for McCain, Florida also presents his best chance to become the nominee. A win here and this race is over.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

He's ahead in a many of the Northeastern winner-take-all states with primaries on Feb. 5. Those leads in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will be cemented if McCain wins Florida.

That gives McCain a major delegate leg up against any remaining challengers, like Romney. 

The momentum McCain would get out of a Florida victory would also vault him ahead in many other states, including California, with its massive number of delegates.

McCain has many powerful voices trying to stop him but none of these voices is as loud as they were 9 months ago when it appeared the conservatives had successfully stopped a McCain nomination.

Now conservatives from Rush Limbaugh to Grover Norquist are staring at  the likelihood of having to rally around someone they've made a living criticizing, at least over the past few years. Talk about a shotgun wedding; Only a Hillary Clinton Democratic nomination will be able to keep these folks at peace for the rest of this year.

Still, look for a number of conservative shots to be taken at McCain in  Thursday's MSNBC debate.

Video Reporters on life on campaign trail Jan. 7: NBC News political director Chuck Todd convenes some of NBC's presidential campaign embed reporters to talk about life on the road with the candidates. Nightly News

Romney will try to reinforce the criticism that at the end of the day, McCain won't always do what's in the best interest of the party.

Of course, that criticism from some on the right is what makes McCain so potentially electable. He may appeal to independents in the general election. But it makes for a messy primary fight.

The third candidate desperate to do well in Florida is Giuliani. 

Will we see a desperate or aggressive Rudy in Thursday's debate? Frankly, he has no choice.

His chances for the Republican nomination are dropping like a rock. He needs a Florida win just to stay in the game and muddy up the race enough to give himself a shot.

Even then, it's a dicey situation for Giuliani since a Florida win could be partially dismissed, a la Michigan for Romney and New Hampshire for McCain.

A Giuliani win puts the GOP race back to square one with 3 and a 1/2 candidates left vying for the actual nomination, the half being Huckabee.

Huckabee was dealt a serious blow when he lost evangelical-heavy South Carolina. He's looking more and more like a niche candidate who desperately needs to get on the national ticket if he has hope of being a serious contender in 2012 or 2016.

The stakes have never been higher. Desperation is in the air. All of the candidates desperately need a win in Florida and all of them need to make a mark on Thursday night.

The debate will also air on many of NBC's broadcast affiliates in Florida.

Picking the president: The candidates Click to visit that candidate's MSNBC page or click the XML symbol for an RSS feed. John McCain                Barack Obama

MORE FROM

Section Front

Obama campaign head gets big book deal Officials turn down Franken request Joe the Plumber to become war correspondent Franken lead at 49 with absentees left to count Minn. Senate winner won't be known in 2008 First Read: 'Twas the seventh week of recount... Franken opens first lead in Minn. Senate race Mom of Palin daughter's boyfriend arrested Minn. court weighs rejected absentee ballots Minnesota panel reviews disputed ballots Section Front   Add headlines to your news reader: